In this two-part article, I’ll take a look at the 10 best draft values from the 2019 redraft season. I’ll start by choosing five players from the top 50 in ADP in part one. I’ll then pick five players from the rest of the draft in part two. For these articles, I will be using Yahoo’s final half PPR ADP. In addition to revisiting how these players performed in 2019, I will also briefly touch on what I expect going forward into 2020. Let’s jump into the most significant values of the draft.
Christian McCaffrey: ADP: 3.6, RB3, finished as RB1
McCaffrey carried many fantasy owners to championships in 2019. He scored over 100 half PPR points more than the next closest non-quarterback, Michael Thomas. He recorded 413.2 points for an average of 25.8 points per game. While McCaffrey was selected as a consensus top-4 pick, he provided value above and beyond a typical first overall selection in drafts and indeed even compared to the top overall fantasy player in most years. There isn’t too much to say about McCaffrey, other than that he’s the locked-in #1 overall selection for 2020 drafts. That will contrast with recent years, as there has been debate over that selection since the days of Adrian Peterson’s dominance at the top of fantasy drafts.
Michael Thomas: ADP: 13.2, WR4, finished as WR1
Similar to McCaffrey, fantasy owners who drafted Thomas were expecting a WR1 season. He was considered to be the safest WR in 2019 redraft formats, although lacking a bit of upside, based on a slightly lackluster finish to his 2018 season. Thomas completely blew that narrative out of the water. He scored 300.1 half PPR points and finished about 67 points ahead of the WR2, Chris Godwin. Thomas broke Marvin Harrison’s single-season receptions record with 149 catches. He also turned those 149 grabs into 1,725 yards and nine receiving touchdowns. Thomas was a real difference-maker from the WR position, especially considering that league-winners at the top of the draft tend to come at RB.
Like McCaffrey, there is no question that Thomas is the WR1 in 2020 redraft formats. The only question is where Thomas will slot in for overall rankings. Given the far superior depth of the wide receiver position in both the NFL and fantasy, I expect Thomas to have an ADP of around fifth overall in 2019, behind McCaffrey and potentially some of the running backs in the tier of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara. Considering the higher rate of injuries to running backs, and that Thomas finished as the #2 overall flex player in 2019, getting Thomas around pick #5 in 2020 would be a steal.
Aaron Jones: ADP: 29.6, RB13, finished as RB2
As we move away from the top players who massively outperformed expectations, we now come to a player where opinions were divided coming into 2019. While I didn’t write about Jones, considering that I felt pretty much near the average about him, there were two opinions. Some said that Jones would be a workhorse back and dominate the Packers’ backfield, en route to a clear RB1 season. Others thought that the Packers would return to a timeshare between Jones and Jamaal Williams, like they had done in the past, limiting Jones’ upside.
Both factions were partially correct.
Jones was not a workhorse back, only totaling 61.5% of snaps in 2019, while Jamaal Williams had 34.6%, with the rest going to ancillary backs. Despite this relatively low workload, Jones still finished as the RB2 with 290.3 fantasy points. Jones scored 19 total touchdowns with 16 rushing and three receiving, which allowed for his RB2 finish. Considering that only McCaffrey, an every-snap running back, matched Jones’ 19 touchdowns, some touchdown regression is likely for Jones in 2020.
There is simply no way that he will score 19 touchdowns again unless the Packers decide to give him 80% or more of snaps, which they have only done when Jamaal Williams was unavailable. I do expect Jones to be a borderline first-round selection in 2020 drafts, and I will likely let another fantasy owner take the risk at that price. Jones still provided extreme value for those who drafted him, making him a worthy inclusion on this list.
Derrick Henry: ADP: 35.0, RB17, finished as RB3
Unlike Jones, I felt there was a mostly negative air about Henry coming into 2019. His lack of usage in the passing game and his history of being a fantasy disappointment was held against him by most analysts. Most did not believe in the Titans’ offense under Marcus Mariota, and it turns out they were entirely correct about that. However, Henry succeeded under both Mariota and new starter Ryan Tannehill, finishing as the RB3 and tied for second in RB points per game behind McCaffrey. His passing game usage did not increase much, with Henry recording just 18 receptions compared to 15 in 2018.
Henry totaled 18 touchdowns, 16 rushing, and two receiving, along with 1,540 rushing yards to take the NFL rushing title. Henry was a massive draft value to those who selected him in the late third round. Unlike the previous few players, though, Henry is a free agent going into 2020. While most expect the Titans to retain Henry, whether, via extension or the franchise tag, there is more uncertainty to Henry’s future. If Henry is kept in Tennessee, I expect him to be selected in the first round, ahead of Jones, for example. I will not be selecting Henry in any fantasy drafts at that price, as his low reception totals make him vulnerable to touchdown regression.
Chris Godwin: ADP: 42.0, WR17, finished as WR2
Godwin was a much-hyped player coming into the 2019 draft season. Most analysts predicted a significant breakout for him. Where the community differed was on the scale of that breakout. Would Godwin be a WR1, or would he be a WR2/WR3 borderline player? His final ADP of WR17 suggested a pretty even divide in that debate. Godwin exceeded all expectations by finishing as the WR2 despite only playing 14 games. One of the main reasons for this production was quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw for 5,109 passing yards and 33 passing touchdowns. Godwin put up a line of 86 receptions, 1,333 yards, and nine receiving touchdowns, again in just 14 games played.
Both Godwin and teammate Mike Evans finished as WR1s in Tampa Bay, despite neither playing all 16 games. The Buccaneers’ offense is in a state of flux going into 2020. Winston is an unrestricted free agent, and if the Bucs move on from him, who knows what the offense will look like?
Additionally, tight end O.J. Howard was criminally underutilized in the offense and deserved more targets. If everything remains status quo, the Godwin vs. Evans debate will be one of the most hotly contested in the 2020 draft season, as both will likely be in the WR1 range. If Winston moves on, I expect that Godwin and Evans will not drop in drafts as much as they should, and I’ll likely be avoiding both players in drafts.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I’d love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out anytime! I’ve been taking fantasy questions lately and trying to help out with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
