Jordan Howard seems to be the black sheep running back of the NFL and the dynasty/fantasy community. I see very little love out there in the Twitterverse for the former top 10 back, and I’m certain dynasty owners have found it difficult to move him for any reasonable value. Admittedly, it’s not a great situation for teams that are rebuilding, but it is a window of opportunity for contenders to take advantage of.
Howard was undeniably a fantasy disappointment in 2019, but a lack of fantasy production doesn’t always correlate to poor play. He was actually quite successful when given the opportunity last year, and that’s exactly what this article intends to explore.
SROA & Red Zone Success Rate
Let’s begin with Howard’s rushing efficiency. We’re going to use SROA or Success Rate Over Average from SharpFootballStats as our efficiency metric. SROA considers a player’s success rate against the NFL average. Howard maintained a 52.9% successful run rate in 2019, well above league average (47.7%). He finished last year with a 5.2% SROA, something to take note of. Howard had a higher SROA than Derrick Henry (3.8%) and just below Aaron Jones (6.9%). He’s a much more successful runner than we think, despite all the shade we throw his way for not being able to contribute in the passing game.
Additionally, Howard was extremely successful in the red zone in spite of the lack of overall carries he received. He finished with 22 attempts and scored all six of his touchdowns in the red zone. He finished with a 64% rushing success rate, higher than that of his fellow teammate and fantasy darling Miles Sanders (41%), Alvin Kamara (57%), Dalvin Cook (53%), and Saquon Barkley (36%). We are all insane if we believe Matt Breida is about to handle the red zone touches for the Miami Dolphins. Howard is in line for a heavy workload inside the 20-yard line in 2020.
Breakaway Runs & Yards-After-Contact
Ok, so we’ve established Howard is better than the community opinion that he simply sucks. He’s more successful than the average NFL running back by a good margin and is a certified beast in the red zone, but that’s not all.
Howard was eighth in breakaway run rate (5.9%) in 2019. Breakaway runs include runs more than 15-yards and players with a higher rate generally exhibit more explosive plays. Not only did he produce a high percentage of breakaway runs, but he also increased his yards-after-contact per attempt from 2.0 to 2.4 in 2019. He finished 16th in yards-after-contact per attempt, ahead of Ezekiel Elliot, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara.
This is just more evidence that Howard is successful when the ball is in his hands. The issue in 2019 was that it just wasn’t the case.
Past Success & Available Carries
Howard completed his worst season in the NFL after just four years in the league. He’s only 25 years old and most dynasty owners I know have written him off. He can’t avoid the stink of Chicago or Philidelphia even though he wasn’t terrible for either team. Howard finished with over 1,100 yards his first two seasons in the league and was 65 yards short of making it three in a row in 2018. Howard’s 2019 campaign was severely hindered by a lack of opportunity and injuries, leaving an inescapable stigma. He received an inexcusably low workload of just 119 carries after receiving 250+ each year prior. Howard started only four games and played in 10. He suffered a shoulder injury later in the year that kept him out of the latter half of the season but still averaged 4.4 yards-per-carry. His 525 yards look bad on paper but it makes sense when you put some context around it.
Philadelphia wasn’t a great fit for Howard. They tend to use multiple running backs and split the carries, something he’s very unfamiliar with. Now he finds himself on the Miami Dolphins who were last in the league in rushing attempts (346) in 2019. Their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, lead the team in rushing. I honestly try to write this line in as many articles as possible because of how shocking it is. Kalen Ballage had the highest carry total for all running backs on Miami last year with just 74 carries.
So, what is stopping Howard from receiving 200-250+ carries? Matt Breida apparently, or at least that’s what the consensus seems to be. I don’t get it. The most carries Breida has ever received in his career is 153. He’s also extremely fragile and started in just five games for the San Fransico 49er’s last year. I’m not saying Breida won’t receive any touches, he certainly will, but Howard is the better running back and should see the lion’s share of the work. Howard finished as the fantasy RB10 in 2016 and RB11 in 2017, just three years ago. He finds himself on a team in desperate need of a running back with a ton of available carries. We could be seeing his resurgence to a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 in 2020.
All I’m saying is, don’t sleep on Jordan Howard.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF
