PRODUCTION
Back in 2018, D.J. Moore entered the NFL as a top wide receiver (WR) prospect after posting impressive age-adjusted production at Maryland. He led the Terrapins passing attack during his breakout sophomore season at the age of 19. By the end of his career, Moore easily exceeded important production thresholds like career average scrimmage yards per play and receiving yards market share.
D.J. Moore’s outstanding age-adjusted college production, elite athleticism, prototypical NFL size, and first-round draft capital made him an exciting WR prospect.
Image courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com
As a 21-year-old rookie WR, D.J. Moore put up reliable numbers earning 74 targets for 707 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He put up 148 PPR points in 15 games and barely missed being a top 36 WR. His advanced metrics were excellent earning a 14% target share, 1.51 yards per team pass attempt, and had over 800 air yards.
In his second season, D.J. Moore lived up to the hype. He delivered on his exciting potential in a big way. In 15 games, Moore earned 135 targets for 1,175 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He finished with 233 fantasy points and was the WR12 overall in PPR formats. With an underwhelming quarterback, Moore’s advanced metrics were impressive. He posted 1,499 air yards (31% of CAR air yards), increased his aDOT to 11.1, and earned a 24% target share. Plus, Moore exited his week 16 matchup early with an injury. This injury prevented him from finishing as a top-seven fantasy WR for 2019.
Additionally, Moore isn’t the boring underneath and PPR WR some film grinders portray him to be. He has been efficient across all depths of target during his career.
2020 OUTLOOK
Entering his third season, D.J. Moore is set to explode. Carolina hired Matt Rhule and Joe Brady, two of the most sought after coaching candidates in college. This was a clear signal sent by new owner David Tepper that the Panthers will be at the forefront in utilizing their offensive weapons in unique and optimal ways in 2020. Carolina also signed the reliable Teddy Bridgewater to replace the erratic Kyle Allen at quarterback. Then they added field-stretcher Robby Anderson to help take the top off the defense. These signings, Ian Thomas taking over at tight end, and a very young defense make me confident projecting increased offensive volume and efficiency for Carolina this season.
All of this is great news for D.J. Moore’s 2020 season and beyond. I’m projecting Moore for 135-145 targets, 90-100 receptions, 1,200-1,275 receiving yards, and seven to eight touchdowns in 2020. I don’t have to extrapolate or make any bold assumptions to get there either. These projections would make him a top-five receiver this season and he’d have between 250-275 PPR points.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
I confidently have D.J. Moore ranked as my dynasty WR3 entering his age 23-season. He already has a WR1 season under his belt and can realistically be projected for a top 5 WR season in 2020. Moore’s college prospect profile, outstanding NFL production at a young age, and 2020 projections will make him a top-5 dynasty WR for years to come.
He’s going as WR6 in DLF July ADP. I’ll happily trade back from Michael Thomas or Davante Adams to pick up extra value and D.J. Moore. While this isn’t the optimal time to acquire D.J. Moore, there’s still value to be had at WR6 prices. Once this season starts, that ship will have sailed for good. D.J. Moore will have officially cemented himself as a star in fantasy football for years to come.
Follow me to the moon and back, @ff_spaceman on Twitter, in my quest into unexplored spreadsheets and dynasty football analysis. To find out more about the advanced metrics discussed in this article readers can explore them in my college prospect database. Readers can also listen to my podcast @ATaleofTwoRivals with @ff_walrus and @ff_banterman for more insightful fantasy takes and the best banter in fantasy football. Until next time, be well and be safe.
Information found in this article was gathered from @ff_spaceman’s College Prospect Database, PlayerProfiler.com, Sports-Reference.com, AirYards.com, and different prospect’s college team websites.
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