Bonjour, Mesdames et Messieurs! I hope everyone enjoyed the NFL Draft. May good fortune happen to your favorite team and fantasy football squads.
I don’t have a favorite NFL team and have too many leagues to care about the results. I have over 40 leagues. My main focus in the fantasy football arena is to be helpful; however, it is a little difficult to be an asset to your success. It may be difficult, but I have a unique trait to understand what General Managers and coaches are thinking, translating to mostly Livin’ in the Future or seeing it before it happens.
The difficult part is trying to be helpful to a community that knows what they are doing. Since most people have high intelligence towards fantasy football, I talk about the not-so-obvious things. We can look at the NFL Draft results as a perfect example. Everyone has a great perspective regarding players like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Anthony Richardson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So, I won’t waste your time talking about players like them.
In this year’s Draft, pick 197, Elijah Higgins, I want to discuss, what I call, the Gary Kubiak pick. I will describe Mr. Higgins as a potential Diamond in the Rough and the next Darren Waller in this article. I hope you enjoy it and that it is helpful toward your fantasy football success.
Origin Story
Elijah Higgins, son of Karon and George Higgins, was born on October 27, 2000. His father played football at the University of South Florida. Elijah grew up in Austin, Texas, and attended Bowie High School. During his senior season, he was selected to play in the Under Armour All-America Game. Elijah was rated a four-star recruit and committed to playing college football at Stanford University.
In Elijah’s final season, he led all Stanford receivers with 704 receiving yards with two touchdowns, averaging 58.67 yards/game. He was awarded the 2022 Frank Rehm Award – the most outstanding offensive player in the Big Game.
Throughout Mr. Higgins’s collegiate career, he was 2022 College Sports Communicators Academic All-District, 2022 All-Pac-12 fourth team wide receiver (Phil Steele), two-time All-Pac-12 honorable mention wide receiver (PFF, 2021; Coaches, 2022), and three-time Pac-12 Academic Honor Roll (2020, 2021, 2022).
Keen Observer Posse (KOP) Evaluation
One of the things I like and try to do during the KOP evaluation process is watch film on a specific player before I hear any breakdown of said player. It is easier said than done. Mr. Higgins’ KOP evaluation was easy without hearing someone else’s perspective.
Even though Mr. Higgins was a WR for Stanford his entire career, it was clear that he would succeed as TE in the NFL. The first snap I saw, I said, “tight end, too easy.” My instant comparison was Darren Waller. Like Mr. Waller, Mr. Higgins excelled in the movement-type routes (shallow crossers, verticals, posts, overs, seams). His disadvantage was creating separation by running change-of-direction (COD) routes. Additionally, he struggled with running routes that required him to sink his hips, stopping and starting quickly. He didn’t lack coordination and had a strong base running COP and sink hips routes; he wasn’t quick enough. This would be different if his competition were LBs and Strong Safeties. He would create separation with relative ease when facing LBs and Strong Safeties.
If we were going to move him to TE, we have to ask ourselves two questions; does he has the size, and can he block? The simple ask to both questions is YES.
He is 6’3” and 235 lbs., severely undersized for a TE; however, if you watch his film, he already looks like a full-grown TE. It is reasonable to expect to add between a healthy 10 to 15 lbs. within the next six months. I believe he has a body that can handle the extra weight without diminishing his athleticism.
Regarding his blocking ability, he is what NFL Draft experts would say is “a willing blocker.” This label has been applied to Luke Musgrave and Dalton Kincaid. The meaning behind the label is that they’re not a consistent blocker but have the right mechanics to block.
Mr. Higgins had better PFF run-blocking grades in the last two seasons than Mr. Musgrave and Kincaid. Mr. Musgrave’s PFF run-blocking grades in 2022 and 2021 were 54.3 and 55.6, respectively. Mr. Kincaid’s grades were 59.5 and 58.0. Mr. Higgins’ grades were slightly better, with 61.7 and 61.2.
Dolphins Being Savvy
The Miami Dolphins drafted Elijah Higgins in the sixth round with the 197th pick. While teams like the Bills and Packers draft TEs in the first and second rounds, the Dolphins draft a TE with a similar skillset and athleticism in the sixth round. In this situation, the Dolphins were thinking two steps ahead of their competition.
How do we know the Dolphins will turn Mr. Higgins into a TE? There are few clear indicators. The first indicator is the Dolphins’ TE depth chart. Their best TE is Durham Smythe after Mike Gesicki left Miami during Free Agency and signed with the Patriots. In the receiving game, Mr. Smythe was graded as a below-average TE and a slightly below-average run blocker. Mr. Smythe doesn’t exude confidence in your roster as a starting TE. The Dolphins didn’t address the TE position in Free Agency or the draft if you don’t count Elijah Higgins.
We can return to the depth chart for the other indicator, specifically the WR room. The Dolphins have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios, and Chosen Anderson (previously Robbie) in their WR room. There isn’t any room for Mr. Higgins to make the 53-man roster if he stays as a WR.
The last indicator is Head Coach Mike McDaniel. He said Mr. Higgins will play TE. haha!
What Should You Do?
Elijah Higgins will go undrafted in most Dynasty Rookie Drafts or Startups. I recommend using your last draft pick to draft Mr. Higgins, especially in TE premium leagues. We all know how hard it is to find a fantasy-relevant TE outside the top 5 TEs. Currently, the fantasy football sites have Mr. Higgins listed as WR, so stay patient. The sites will catch up with your intelligence.
If your draft is over, make a waiver claim for Mr. Higgins and place him on your Taxi squad.
What to Expect
Practically, Mike Gesicki’s production is up for grabs. It isn’t much, but there’s a reason for it. Mr. Gesicki isn’t much of a real TE, meaning he dislikes blocking. As discussed before, Mr. Higgins is the opposite. He’s willing to get dirty. This alone will allow Mr. Higgins to be on the field much more than Mr. Gesicki.
Last season, Mr. Gesicki accumulated 52 targets, 32 receptions, 362 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. He was the overall TE23 (low-end TE2) in standard PPR leagues. This happen while he wasn’t a scheme fit for Mike McDaniel and missed three games.
We can expect better production from Mr. Higgins because he will stay on the field much more than Mr. Gesicki. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle commanding all the attention from the defense, Mr. Higgins will be running free down the middle of the field; exactly where Tua loves to throw the ball.
As mentioned, Mr. Higgins will need time to add weight to play the TE position. At the earliest, you can expect high-end TE2 numbers by Week 10 of this year. That’s if he’s used a move TE where he isn’t asked to block as much as an inline TE. We must consider how long it takes for NFL players to develop at the TE position. It is one of the hardest positions to adjust to in the NFL. So, if you don’t see any semblance of high-end TE2 production by week 8 in the 2024 season, go ahead and cut bait.
I’m anticipating his fantasy football production ceiling is a mid-tier TE1 just because of all the high-end talented WRs for the Dolphins. Below is what type of athleticism Mr. Higgins has when converted to TE.
Conclusion
Remember, the KOP evaluation always tries to Live in the Future or see something before everyone else. We must put ourselves out there to do so. Most fantasy football experts rely on draft capital to make sound decisions. We do so as well; however, we also look for exceptions. Mr. Higgins is one of our exceptions to the rule players we want to invest in this year.
Trust the process; the keen observer of the human experience can Live in the Future.
I hope I was helpful and insightful with the KOP evaluation. If you have any questions regarding my comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me at @crazy_kirt. Thank you for your time and support, and have a good day.
