If you are new to DFS, a Primer is available here. Full Appendix available at the bottom for any terms not understood here.
As we near the halfway point of the fantasy regular season, you begin to see which teams of yours are still competing and which ones are looking forward to the 2024 rookie draft class. One of the nice things about DFS is that it will keep you plugged in well after your season-long teams are all finished. For those who have been with me all season, we are trying a new layout this week for our DFS articles.
High Totals
Despite the format change, we will always start with totals. Vegas tells us how many points they believe will be scored in each game. More points means more touchdowns which means more fantasy points. We have no games over 50 this week, the highest total on the board being the Cardinals @ Rams at 49. This is an interesting game to stack on the Rams’ side. Matthew Stafford ($6.1K) is a massive value, and you know where about 20-25 of his targets are going. Those dudes, Puka Nacau ($8.0K) and Cooper Kupp ($9.0K) are extremely expensive, which might keep ownership down.
Top Stacks
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): $7,600 vs. Carolina
His teammate, Raheem Mostert ($6.4K), will be an extremely popular play with De’Von Achane missing time. This is a great way to gain some leverage on a popular RB play. Tua has shown what his ceiling can be, and this offense can score a bunch of points in a hurry. He has two very obvious stacking partners in Tyreek Hill ($9.3K) and Jaylen Waddle ($7.6K). There are also some nice bring-back options for the Panthers in Adam Thielen ($5.9K), DJ Chark ($4.0K), and the rookie Jonathan Mingo ($3.5K).
Justin Fields (CHI): $7,300 vs. Minnesota
From a fantasy perspective, the schedule has hit a perfect spot for Justin Fields. The Vikings’ defense has been one of the easiest to pass on in football. The target tree is narrow with D.J. Moore ($6.5K) and Cole Kmet ($4.6K) receiving a bulk of the work. The bring-back options are all great values too thanks to all of Justin Jefferson’s targets needing to be redistributed amongst the Vikings pass catchers.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): $6,500 vs. Indianapolis
Great matchup here for Trevor Lawrence. The Colts have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. They are without Zay Jones this week so Calvin Ridley ($6.7K) and Christian Kirk ($5.4K) should receive a majority of the targets. Evan Engram ($4.5K) can also fit nicely into a build and has shown us a ceiling in the past. Finally, if you want to get frisky, I do not hate playing Jamal Agnew ($3.0K). He has big play speed as a return specialist, and at the minimum salary, just one of those big plays alone could pay off his salary.
Top Plays
Christian McCaffrey (SF): $9,500 @ Cleveland
This is a fun week to play CMC. There is a ton of value at running back to the point that nobody is going to want to pay up for the highest player on the board at a position with that much value. The matchup will also scare some people off. He will still have some ownership because there really is a ton of value on this slate, but likely not as owned as he will be in other weeks. The matchup might be scary, but this is still Christian McCaffrey we are talking about.
Tyreek Hill (MIA): $9,300 vs. Carolina
I still think that Justin Jefferson is the best WR in football, but nobody has a higher single-game ceiling than Tyreek Hill. He can take over games because of how much of a nightmare he is for defensive coordinators to plan around. Add that to an innovative young head coach in Mike McDaniel who schemes him into the open field and you have something truly special. Even if you are not playing a Tua stack, Hill is a great option for spending up.
Cooper Kupp (LAR): $9,000 vs. Arizona
The Rams have become a lowkey-scary offensive team. The pair of WRs they have are professional target hogs. It is insane that he could miss four games, have another WR step up into double-digit targets as a rookie, the rookie maintain a massive target share when Kupp returns, and then still have double-digit targets remaining. Puka is also a fantastic play as well and both are in consideration for lineups this weekend.
Value Plays
Josh Downs (IND): $4,100 @ Jacksonville
There are a ton of value plays on this slate. Think of any players injured recently and their backups are likely great value plays this week. It will make it easy to pile in a bunch of stars like CMC and Tyreek Hill. When Gardner Minshew ($5.0K) has played, Josh Downs has been a beneficiary of his quick decision-making and throws. He might get there in a very gross way with 8 receptions for 64 yards but we will take that stat line at $4.1K.
Kyle Pitts (ATL): $3,500 vs. Washington
I made myself stop writing about Kyle Pitts last week, and then bang, he has the best game of the season. So now I’m permitting myself to write in Kyle Pitts every week again. You all know the things about Kyle Pitts being an athletic freak, sometimes being called a unicorn. If Desmond Ridder ($5.0K) can just be a reasonable NFL quarterback then we might have something here. He was much better last week, let’s hope it continues.
Cash Game Core
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN): $8,300 vs. Seattle
I am also going to play him in a lot of tournament lineups as well, despite how highly owned he will be. I foolishly tried to fade him last week and even said I might regret it. I did. Joe Burrow was not the best-performing quarterback on the slate last week but was in a majority of the winning lineups because if you played Burrow then you played Chase. Absolutely slate-breaking. In the older days of DFS, everyone would overplay the guy who went off last week. Nowadays, the DFS tournament crowd is too clever for that. Too clever in fact. Often a player is under-owned the week after they have a monster game. This matchup is also nice and juicy against the Seahawks who give up more points to WRs than any other team in football.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR): $4,300 @ Miami
Miles Sanders being out makes this a free square for cash games. I will play 0% in tournaments because I think it is highly improbable that Hubbard scores so many points that I cannot win without him in my lineup. I do think there is a good chance he get like 60 yards combined rushing and receiving and 3 receptions to get me 9ish points which I will happily take in my cash game lineups up $4,300 but will look elsewhere in tournaments.
Zach Ertz (ARI): $3,600 @ Los Angeles (N)
They continue to underprice Zach Ertz and he continues to get targets. Last week he had fewer targets but managed to get a touchdown to salvage his day. Once again the Cardinals project to be playing from behind meaning more pass volume and more chances for Ertz to catch passes. He is playable in tournaments, but I would only do it with a Joshua Dobbs ($5.2K) stack, as a bring back to a Stafford stack, or as a mini-stack with Kupp or Nacua.
Value Stack
Zach Wilson (NYJ): $4,900 vs. Philadelphia
The good news, a great price, and no ownership. The bad news, it’s Zach Wilson. There are other cheap stacks you can go with but I still think Wilson has more to his game than people believe. The matchup is much less scary than you would believe. The Eagles are giving up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I would only consider this play for larger fields as a way to get contrarian, but I think there is a path to a big game here for Wilson, and the savings let us spend up everywhere else.
Low Owned Guys
Davante Adams (LV): $8,100 vs. New England
I think people just want nothing to do with this game. Adams also had a bit of a letdown on a national TV game last week. For whatever reason, it looks like Davante might be a little underplayed. We saw him get 20 targets in a game just two weeks ago and we are ignoring a $8,100 Davante Adams because of some recency bias and a gross-looking NFL game.
Jonathan Taylor (IND): $6,600 @ Jacksonville
Zack Moss ($6.2K) has made this whole situation tricky after putting on a sensational game the week Taylor comes back from whatever is happening in Indy. Because of this though, people will not want to play Jonathan Taylor for fear of him doing it again. Eventually, Taylor is going to take over this backfield and once again, I would rather be a week early than a week late on these kinds of things in DFS.
Conclusion
We have a ton of cheap value making all the studs extremely accessible. Lots of lineups will be “stars and scrubs” lineups with value plays and high-dollar plays in the same lineup. There is a very good argument for playing some mid-range lineups with a bunch of middle-tier players. As always monitor news throughout the weekend and add that information to your lineup building on Sunday morning. Good luck everyone!
Thanks so much for reading, If you want to discuss more reach me on Twitter, find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server where you can get access to our entire staff!
