If you are new to DFS, a Primer is available here. Full Appendix available at the bottom for any terms not understood here. 

The fantasy football finals are here! If you are still playing in your season-long leagues then congratulations are in order. Well done, and good luck in the finals. Many of us now have much fewer leagues to manage at this stage of the season. This is the perfect time to play some more DFS. This week we have been given the full 13-game Sunday slate which gives us a plethora of options to play. Narrowing down who to talk about in this article was much more difficult than in previous weeks due to all the options. Enough with intros though, let’s get to it!

Week 16 Report Card

Cash Lineup

H2H ITM%: 77%

H2H ROI: 38.46%

Double Up Cash Line: 125.84

I thought Breece Hall was a complete lock for cash games this week, but apparently, 65.7% of people in my Double Up did not agree. The crazy thing is with 43.1 DK points, he ran pretty bad. He was only four rushing yards from the 100-yard bonus rushing and five yards receiving from that bonus and could have given up the double bonus and put up a 50 burger. I did not have to sweat at all with my cash lineup this week, and I easily coasted to a nice profit.

Single Entry

ROI: 167%

Cash Line: 148.20

Winning Score: 247.82

I think this is one of my more well-built lineups of the entire season from a game theory perspective. Using Khalil Herbert as leverage off of the very popular Justin Fields unlocked a lot of salary. The key to all the money this week was playing Amari Cooper and Breece Hall in the same lineup which I did not have that exact combo in any lineup unfortunately.

MME

ROI: (-40%)

ITM%: 25%

Top Lineup Payout: 3x

Cash Line: 146.80

Winning Score: 240.22

I had extreme technical difficulty issues trying to build my lineups for mass multi-entry this week so I did not get the exact allocations of players that I wanted. Including my Amari Cooper exposure not reflecting my inputs. It was a bit maddening, but I eventually just had to submit my build even though it wasn’t exactly what I wanted to submit. I have had the same issue on Monday and Thursday with the Showdown slates so I do not know what the answer is right now to fix the issues I’m having at this stage, but hopefully, I find out soon. I love doing the MME building and had my best win of the season doing so.

Highest Totals

49ers @ Commanders (49.5)

Cardinals @ Eagles (48.5)

Dolphins @ Ravens (46.5)

We get a lot of our favorite teams to build lineups with this week in some of the higher-totaled games. It could be easy to be fearful of a blowout and game script reducing the upside of teams like the 49ers and Eagles, but if they blow out an opponent, they have to score some fantasy points. Plus both the 49ers and the Eagles may pour it on someone after some tough weeks for both teams. As we approach playoff time these teams want to be peaking so I could see both of those teams just unloading 40 plus this week.

Top Stacks

Jalen Hurts (PHI): $8,300 vs. Arizona

Just playing whatever quarterback plays the Cardinals each week has been a recipe for profits this season. Playing Jalen Hurts has also been fantastic for profits every week. Let’s combine both of those things. The rest of the DFS players are also aware of this so expect to be playing it into a decent amount of ownership. The good news is that on a full 13-game slate we can find some lower-owned guys elsewhere so we don’t mind eating a bit of chalk here.

Lamar Jackson (BAL): $7,700 vs. Miami

Last year when these teams met we had a massive shootout that was slate-breaking. We had Tua throw a casual six touchdowns to edge out the Baltimore Ravens 42-38. It was kinda the coming out party for Tua in his first season with head coach Mike McDaniel. The rematch now has all sorts of playoff implications as the winner is overwhelmingly likely to have the number 1 seed in the AFC. Both defenses are better than last season at this stage of the season, but these quarterbacks have some huge ceilings.

Brock Purdy (SF): $7,000 @ Washington

This is the same spiel I gave for Hurts. Playing quarterbacks against Washington has been profitable and playing Brock Purdy has been profitable. He will be chalky, but we don’t mind. Right now Hurts projects as the most popular QB with Purdy the 2nd most popular right behind him. 

Top Plays

Christian McCaffrey (SF): $9,600 @ Washington

Commanders bad, CMC good. It does not have to be too complicated.

Tyreek Hill (MIA): $9,300 @ Baltimore

I saw on Twitter someone asking the question of who is the scariest player to play against in FF. Not the best, the scariest though. Tyreek Hill might be that guy. You could be up 40 against an opponent with only Tyreek Hill left, and you know you could get gotten. Guys with that kind of ceiling are the best in DFS as they can separate you to a point where only lineups with those guys in them matter. This week he will be without his fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle. Sure some amount of targets will go to Cedrick Wilson (3.6K) and Braxton Berrios (3.3K), but if I’m the Dolphins in this massive game for playoff seeding purposes, I’m going to ride with what got me here.

Kyren Williams (LAR): $8,300 @ New York (N)

The fact that he is still popping as a great value at $8.3K shows how egregious the sub $7K price tag was when he first came back from injury. A lot of people like to talk about him not being good but just being in a good situation. It’s just people taking too much from his slow 40 time. While at Notre Dame Kyren showed to be an effective runner and pass catcher out of the backfield and even without the measurables, he has continued to be extremely effective in this offense that is quite fantasy-friendly to running backs. 

Value Plays

Zamir White (LV): $5,100 @ Indianapolis

I have a ton of Zamir White in Dynasty Leagues. I liked his tape at Georgia and honestly believe he is a good running back. Last week against the Chiefs he was able to rack up 145 rushing yards against a good defense. This week he gets a defense that ranks 30th against opposing running backs. He is projected as the most popular running back on the slate so prepare to eat some chalk here. Likely a cash game lock on Sunday.

Quentin Johnston (LAC): $3,700 @ Denver

Yes, I know he is a bust and the worst receiver ever drafted since N’Keal Harry, yada yada. We don’t actually need him to be good here. We just need him to catch like 4 passes for 32 yards and a touchdown and provide us with some salary relief so we can play Christian McCaffrey and/or Tyreek Hill in our lineups. The narrative about his struggles may also help keep ownership down because nobody wants to click Quentin Johnston when playing for real U.S. American dollars.

Gerald Everett (LAC): $3,500 @ Denver

Everett has gotten 8 targets in each of the last three games. While I will probably fade in tournaments to avoid eating chalk at a position of high variance like tight end, he is a lock for cash games with that kind of volume at $3,500. 

Value Stacks

Jarrett Stidham (DEN): $4,800 vs. Los Angeles (A)

We have a ton of options for punt quarterbacks this week so this is a week that if you desire to get funky, go ahead and get funky. Stidham looked very solid last season playing for the Raiders and now gets to get his first start as a Bronco against a very weak Chargers defense. Stacking any part of this game will not be expensive as we have already mentioned two cheap Chargers you can play in the same lineup to set up a nice “stars and scrubs” build.

Tyrod Taylor (NYG): $4,600 vs. Los Angeles (N)

The Tommy DeVito era seems to have reached its inevitable conclusion, and the Giants turn back to Tyrod Taylor for the final two weeks of the season. This price tag is pretty low, and the Rams’ defense has been known to give it up through the air. When Taylor came in at halftime on Christmas Day, he looked really solid and gave the Giants a chance to win that football game. His pass-catching options are also dirt cheap making it easy to again build a “stars and scrubs” lineup.

Low Owned Guys

Davante Adams (LV): $7,400 @ Indianapolis

Adams was extremely tilting last week where he only put up four yards on six targets. It wrecked some of my Christmas Day lineups before we even got to the second game of the day. That bad taste in our mouths is likely what is leading to the low ownership of Adams. I am choosing to trust the talent and target share here. This hasn’t been a great year for Adams but there still exists a massive ceiling for the veteran.

De’Von Achane (MIA): $6,700 @ Baltimore

We have had a few rough performances in a row to cause a cooling down in the fantasy community as a whole on Achane. This makes for a nice buy-low window even in DFS. There is a chance he doesn’t even get to double-digit points, but you cannot be afraid of a bad lineup in DFS. The best DFS pros on the planet finish near the bottom more often than you might think. We are not trying to get base hits, we want home runs. So we swing for upside, and we saw the kind of upside that Achane had in his bag.

Gut Play of the Week

DeVonta Smith (PHI): $7,300 vs. Arizona

Smith is always capable of huge games, but he is also capable of complete duds as well. Against man-to-man coverage, A.J. Brown ($8,600) dominates the targets, but against zone coverage, they are close to even in target share. The Cardinals run zone at the 5th highest rate in football so I love DeVonta Smith in this spot. I will be playing some AJB as well, but I’ll go ahead and plant my flag on Smith this week.

Conclusion

After months of small slates with low totals, getting a slate with the full 13 games feels like an entirely different game and one I am extremely excited about. With this many games, every player has slightly lower ownership than normal thanks to all the extra teams and players to click on. While you do need to make some concessions to ownership, you can build a bit more freely than we have been able to since the beginning of the season. We only have one more Sunday main slate after this Sunday, and then we begin playoff DFS. Smaller slates are completely different animals, but we will address that more during the postseason. Until next week, good luck, and let’s try to enter a new tax bracket in the final week of 2023. 

Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, you can reach me on Twitter, you can find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server, where you can get access to our entire staff!