Welcome to another edition of DFS with Doug. After a season full of miserable totals, we have a couple of games over the 50-point mark! We are missing a couple of games this week thanks to a three-game slate on Saturday, but with no teams on bye, we still have ten games to choose from. I’m excited to jump into it, so let’s do it!
Week 15 Report Card
Cash Lineup
H2H ITM%: 74%
H2H ROI: 33.04%
Double Up Cash Line: 144.92
D.J. Moore and Isaiah Likely hitting in the early window eliminated any need to sweat. It is incredible how often it is correct to just play Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey in your cash lineup and have access to most of the touchdown equity of an offense that makes scoring look so easy. I’m probably playing both in cash again this week with their matchup against a soft Arizona defense. Even in blowouts, both seem to get there every week.
Single Entry
ROI: (-100%)
Cash Line: 148.02
Winning Score: 216.94
Not a strong tournament slate for me. A lot of lineups that had half the right pieces but no lineup with all the right pieces together. I went for a game script where the Lions and Bears game had players going off. Early on, it looked like there was a decent chance, but the game got gross in the 4th quarter.
MME
ROI: (-35%)
ITM%: 25%
Top Lineup Payout: 3x
Cash Line: 146.22
Winning Score: 227.52
Highest Totals:
Commanders @ Rams (50.5)
Cowboys @ Bills (50)
49ers @ Cardinals (48.5)
Looking at totals like that brings me back to DFS before everyone started playing two high safeties, and games were going below the total at a 56.2% clip on the season. I am happy to stack either side of all three of these games. I may only play the quarterbacks from these games when I build on Sunday. I then just need one of these games to go off, and I probably have printed money on the day. Unfortunately, there is only one other game with a total over 40, so the rest of your lineup will likely just try to find who scores points in those other games.
Top Stacks
Josh Allen (BUF): $8,200 vs. Dallas
The Bills have played three games since they let go of Ken Dorsey as their offensive coordinator. The first was against the Jets, where the Bills had things handled from the jump, but the next two were on the road against the Eagles and Chiefs and must-win games for the Bills. During those games, Allen rushed the ball 19 times for 113 yards and 3 TDs. This uptick in the game for Allen gives him a much higher floor and a more nuclear ceiling. I may play more Josh Allen this week than I have since September.
Dak Prescott (DAL): $8,000 @ Buffalo
On the flip side, the Dak side of this matchup is also fantastic. Dak used to rely more on his legs for his fantasy value, and he still has some value on the ground, but his game has been about efficiency this year. Right now, the Cowboys are 2nd in EPA per pass play in the entire league. The Bills defense has been through a ton of injuries this season and is very getable. This game has some weather concerns, but that can also work to an offensive advantage. It’s usually tougher to get a pass rush in bad conditions, and defenders slipping can lead to big plays.
Brock Purdy (SF): $6,800 @ Arizona
I keep writing down Brock Purdy every single week, and every single week, he makes me look smart. He can be either in Top Stacks or Value Stacks every week because he is both a top play on the slate and he is priced like a value. It will be a bit more pricey to play his pass catchers this week as both Deebo Samuel ($7.7K) and Brandon Aiyuk ($7.2K). If we want to keep following the Man/Zone narrative, then we have one of the most Deebo weeks imaginable coming. The Cardinals play zone at a staggering 83.1% of plays, the 4th highest rate in the league.
Top Plays
Christian McCaffrey (SF): $9,300 @ Arizona
Another player I talk about every single week, though admittedly, has not been great from a cost-adjusted perspective the last two weeks. Last week, he ripped off a 72-yard run on the first play of the game just to have Jordan Mason vulture the touchdown on the very next play. He also only had one target in the passing game. That is a low percentage outcome for McCaffrey on a week-to-week basis. The matchup here for all the 49ers is great, and maybe the Cardinals can push back just a little with Kyler Murray ($6.4K) to force the 49ers to keep scoring more points.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL): $9,200 @ Buffalo
This would normally be Tyreek Hill, but he is dealing with an injury situation, the best defense against opposing WRs in football, and at a $9.9K price tag, that is a lot to swallow. So, we will pivot down to CeeDee Lamb, who has been the primary beneficiary of Dak’s great season. This game has the potential to have some fireworks and break open the slate. We have seen what kind of ceiling Lamb has with five games this year over 28 DK points.
Kyren Williams (LAR): $7,500 @ Washington
Kyren put up a very respectable game last week, but it felt like running bad to only get 17.3 DK points in a game with 68 combined points and Williams having 29 opportunities in said game. This week he gets a smash smash spot against one of the worst defenses against running back in the league. He will be very popular this week as he is popping in projections, but it is some chalk I’m willing to eat.
Value Plays
Ezekiel Elliott (NE): $5,800 vs. Kansas City
It turns out that Zeke was what you needed in your fantasy playoffs the whole time. Who knew? 3.1 yards per carry the last two weeks isn’t inspiring, but I will take 13 targets in the air for the veteran running back. Guys who know how to pass block always find their way into more snaps than the fantasy community ever anticipates. Leonard Fournette was the king of this strategy in Brady’s final seasons. The game script is oddly helpful as I would almost rather the Patriots be playing from behind because his rushing is so inefficient that I just want all the checkdowns. He is currently projected as the most-played RB on the slate, so keep that in mind.
Demario Douglas (NE): $3,900 vs. Kansas City
I have no idea how Demario Douglas is still a secret to some people. Back from concussion protocol, Douglas was averaging eight targets a game before the injury. At this price tag, that is hard to beat. There might not be a lot of upside, but if he gets you double-digit points and opens up a bunch of salary for some studs, then you will be more than satisfied.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN): $2,900 vs. Houston
His price tag is officially the lowest it has been all season, and I am in at this price. He does have some big play ability, but similar to Douglas, he opens up a lot elsewhere on your roster. I will probably fade him in tournaments as TE is extremely volatile, and he will likely be the most popular TE on the slate at this price tag. I would rather pivot to someone less popular, like Tyler Conklin ($3.1K), as leverage. He seems like a cash-game lock at this stage.
Value Stacks
Jordan Love (GB): $6,200 vs. Tampa Bay
This ends up being a great value with the whole stack, as his pass catchers are all under $5.3K, with Christian Watson out this week. The Bucs defense has been easily attacked through the air all season and is often a place we want to attack in our DFS lineups. Jordan Love put on a bit of a stinker on Monday Night Football this past week and has been playing solid ball for around a month before that.
Matthew Stafford (LAR): $6,000 vs. Washington
Stafford is currently projected as the most-owned quarterback on the slate, but it is very easy to understand why. The Commanders’ defense is abysmal, and Stafford has finally been turning all these pass attempts into some fantasy points. Both teams like to drop back and throw the ball a lot, which should lead to a ton of snaps and more pass attempts. His top pass catchers are a bit pricey, so you may need to do one and then stack a cheaper option like Demarcus Robinson ($3.6K).
Low Owned Plays
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,600 @ New England
With all those games with high totals, it’s tough to convince people to spend up on a game with a 37-point total. I cannot believe I’m talking about the Chiefs right now with a point total that low. The fact of the matter is they have not been a team to have high-scoring games. This is a way to make your lineup construction very different, though, and despite his “down” year, he is still the TE1 in all of fantasy. Sometimes, having the highest-scoring dude at a position makes up for a poor FPTS/$ play.
Rashid Shaheed (NO): $4,300 @ New York (N)
Shaheed often goes under-owned because he simply breaks all the expected points stats you could imagine. He is just returning from a quad injury, but before the injury, we saw a small uptick in targets. He could get you 2.9 points but also score 20 plus—precisely the kind of player I like to have in my DFS portfolio.
Gut Play of the Week
Garrett Wilson (NYJ): $5,800 @ Miami
This guy is just so good at football. The Jets offense has had many issues this season, but he has not been one of them. Everything he was advertised as on film in college has come to fruition in the NFL. At an under $6K price tag in a game the Jets will likely be playing from behind, I will plant my flag with Garrett Wilson this week.
Conclusion
There may be a lot of low totals, but there are enough high totals to flatten ownership this week, making it a really fun week to play DFS. You can build lineups around a lot of different game scripts and have plenty of leverage spots throughout the slate. This should be a really fun Sunday morning. Good luck making all the money, everyone.
Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, you can reach me on Twitter. You can find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server, where you can get access to our entire staff!
