If you are new to DFS, a Primer is available here. Full Appendix available at the bottom for any terms not understood here. 

Every year, I am more and more shocked by how quickly the NFL season comes and goes. It feels like we are still just getting started when we are much closer to the end than the beginning at this point. Our season-long leagues are about to begin their postseason so for some of our Dynasty and Redraft teams, this is the end of the road. Luckily, daily fantasy keeps going all the way through the NFL postseason as well! We only have five main Sunday morning slates left though. We have a couple of games with some high totals and some with lower ownership as well so lots of opportunities to build some fantastic game stacks this week.

Week 12 Report Card

Cash Lineup

H2H ITM%: 53%

H2H ROI: (-4%)

Double Up Cash Line:143.26

I was looking to write another report card after getting the blade, but the final sequences in the Bills and Eagles game were enough to snag a break-even from the jaws of defeat. I gained a lot of leverage with the $3.2K Broncos D/ST smashing while the other cash-viable D/STs like the Chiefs and Texans were a liability. I do not go out of my way to be different in cash. On the contrary, I’ll go out of my way to play the chalky pieces. It is nice though when you have a play that you believe is better than the rest of your cash opponents won’t be on. 

Single Entry

ROI: (-100%)

Cash Line: 151.74

Winning Score: 222.46

I knew I wanted to do a Josh Allen lineup with a D’Andre Swift bringback so then it just became finding how I could fit all the pieces together. Unfortunately, my premise was off so this lineup ultimately never had a chance. The Kyren Williams thing was slate-breaking, his ownership steamed so fast over the weekend. Even on Sunday morning, I was seeing projections between 8-13%, never did I think he was going to get to the 20% ownership. 

MME

ROI: (-80%)

ITM%: 10%

Top Lineup Payout: 2x

Cash Line: 148.30

Winning Score: 229.46

A lot of different quarterbacks could have led to good lineups this past week, the big thing you needed for a big payout was Kyren Williams as well. It was also important which pass catchers you had with said quarterbacks. For Josh Allen, you wanted to be playing Gabe Davis for example. The projections I have been using keep causing a lot of Robert Woods in my lineups, I may need to start manually lowering that. He does not possess a ceiling at this stage of his career anymore. This has been a rough month, but last year I had a really strong December so I’m hoping we can get back on track this week.

Highest Totals

Dolphins @ Commanders (49)

49ers @ Eagles (48)

Broncos @ Texans (47.5)

Some fun game environments this Sunday make this feel like one of the best DFS slates this entire season. There are still three games sub 40-point totals, but we do not have to play them with four games over a 47 total. The Dolphins and Commanders one is the most enticing, but there will be a lot of those lineups so you will need to find a way to get different for the rest of your lineup if you want to play that game. The game I want to be overweight on though is this 49ers and Eagles game. This total opened at 45.5 and has been bet up, suggesting sharp money is backing the over. Both defenses can be gotten through the air but are stout against the run which could result in a high pace of play with lots of scoring. The Broncos and Texans game is one I expect to go under so despite low ownership, I may be underweight on this game.

Top Stacks

Jalen Hurts (PHI): $8,200 vs. San Francisco

Let’s start with the man who saved my cash lineups this week, Mr. Jalen Hurts. The floor is incredibly high, and the ceiling is just as high. He has terrific weapons in A.J. Brown ($8.8K) and DeVonta Smith ($7.3K) and always has the upside of just running it in himself. The price of his pass catchers and his ability to get rushing touchdowns does cause me to play more skinny stacks with Hurts than any other quarterback in the league.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): $7,900 @ Washington

It is going to be easy to click Tua’s name against a bad Washington team coming off 9 days off. Tua has had such an incredible ceiling since Mike McDaniels became his head coach. In particular, the Dolphins have been fantastic at putting up video game numbers against bad teams. Enter Washington, a bad team. I do force Tyreek Hill ($9.6K) into all my Tua lineups which does eat up a lot of salary, but I find it tough to envision a ceiling game for Tua where Tyreek doesn’t also completely smash barring an injury.

Brock Purdy (SF): $6,100 @ Philadelphia

Purdy is right at the threshold where he could be a value stack, but playing in a game environment I love gives him the bump up to the big boys. The obvious weapons are obvious, and as I’ve stated before, he has one of the few RBs in football that I will stack with their quarterback on a full slate. The Eagles’ defense is quite difficult to run against so we may see the 49ers throw the ball a bit more than they normally do which could lead to a ceiling game for Purdy if his efficiency is there.

Top Plays

Tyreek Hill (MIA): $9,600 @ Washington

One of the highest price tags we have seen on a player in Daily Fantasy this year. The volume and big play ability of Tyreek Hill make it worth the price tag. He now gets a defense that was getting beaten over the top by Tommy DeVito and Darius Slayton a few weeks back. They may not be super equipped to deal with what Tyreek Hill brings to the table. Even if you are not stacking the Dolphins or Commanders, I would try to squeeze in some Hill in where you have a bunch of savings. He is fully capable of crushing a slate all on his own.

Christian McCaffrey: $9,000 @ Philadelphia

This is a tough matchup for running backs generally, but let’s be real, CMC is more than a running back. He is an offensive weapon. He can be played with Purdy, by himself, as a bringback for a Hurts lineup, or even as a mini correlation with a single Eagles player. This price tag may look like a lot, but it’s cheaper than we have been paying for him in recent weeks to adjust for the matchup. I will happily take a discounted Christian McCaffrey. 

Keenan Allen (LAC): $9,000 @ New England

Welcome to the $9K club Keenan Allen. This game environment is weird to assess. The Chargers play in all these nonsense shootouts while the Patriots play in gross games that you will only see a handful of times on your NFL RedZone channel. The Patriots defense isn’t what it has been in previous years under Bill Belichick. Allen has given us four different games with over 30 points in DK scoring, and his volume will keep his floor high. He won’t go unowned, but he will be much less played than the other $9K plus options.

Value Stacks

Zach Moss (IND): $4,600 @ Tennessee

This is the single most slate-altering player we have this week. We have seen what kind of volume that Moss gets when Taylor is out of the lineup, and despite the tough run defense, I am not concerned. The last time these teams played the Colts had just gotten JT back and Zach Moss CRUSHED for 195 total yards and two touchdowns. He will be a cash game lock, and normally I try to fade running backs with this much ownership in GPPs, but I may just eat it because of how much it opens up everything else.

DeVante Parker (NE): $3,300 vs. Los Angeles (A)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE): $3,200 vs. Los Angeles (A)

I cannot believe I’m mentioning multiple Patriots in a DFS article. I’ll probably be fired from DFF for suggesting people put their hard-earned money in a fantasy competition with WRs being thrown the ball by Bailey Zappe ($4.8K). It is super gross, but the Chargers give up a lot of points, and Demario Douglas has already been ruled out. There is a nice little mini stack you can build here with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler ($8.3K) being brought back with either of these guys. I cannot see myself wanting to fully stack this game, but I’m fine with a mini correlation. 

Brevin Jordan (HOU): $2,500 vs. Denver

The stone-cold minimum price here for Brevin Jordan. We have seen a little bit of him from his days at the University of Miami, and he does have some big play ability. At this price, we need very little to get there, but if he were to break off a long touchdown we would be dancing in the streets. The Broncos will also still be without Safety Kareem Jackson which could result in Jordan seeing a backup safety when he isn’t on Justin Simmons‘s side of the field. C.J. Stroud ($8,100) has shown a willingness to involve the tight end this season so there could be a nice ceiling here.

Russell Wilson (DEN): $5,700 @ Houston

Broncos Country is back, baby! I will pull back on the homerism a bit, you all saw early in the season my strategy of playing every offensive player against the Broncos during their 1-5 start. Russell Wilson has been much better this season under Sean Payton than he ever was under Nathaniel Hackett. He has shown a willingness to use his legs in the red zone and has one of the better 50/50 ball WRs in football in Courtland Sutton ($5.4K).

Gardner Minshew II (IND): $5,300 @ Tennessee

Just like last week, Minshew has a chalky running back lining up behind him lowering his ownership despite a good projection. This is a great way to gain leverage against people who are taking the cheap chalk in Zach Moss. If the Colts do most of their damage through the air, and you have CMC and Austin Ekeler who just smash, you will be lapping all the Zach Moss lineups. 

Low Owned Guys

Kyren Williams (LAR): $7,200 vs. Cleveland

Predicting who will be at what ownership on a Friday afternoon is such a tough task. If you played Kyren last week because I said he would be low-owned, I sort of apologize. He completely smashed so it was better to have him in your lineup than not. Sometimes when a player is seen as under-owned by too many sources the overcorrection is too strong. This week I can say with confidence that I do not believe he will be steamed over the weekend. A much tougher opponent defensively has presented itself. His efficiency may be down this week against a tough opponent so we are leaning on Sean McVay’s tendency to run the ball near the goalline to hopefully get us in the endzone. 

Derrick Henry (TEN): $6,800 vs. Indianapolis

The King was able to get there last week on the back of a couple of touchdowns. I am not sure if we have a vintage Derrick Henry game left in the tank, but he does provide another way to gain leverage on Zach Moss’s ownership. If the Titans come out and beat up on the Colts and let Henry run downhill, we could see a big game from him. I’m not sure if 99-yard touchdowns are still part of his game, but if the Titans get a chance to play with a lead then we could have multiple touchdowns.

Gut Play of the Week

Deebo Samuel (SF): $6,200 @ Philadelphia

I want to attack this game as much as possible. Deebo has a 24% target share against zone defense while Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200) has a 20% target share. Against man-to-man Samuel drops to 15.6% while Aiyuk is at 30.3%. The screens and low ADOT stuff is perfect against zone coverage which the Eagles play zone 72.7% of the time. The Eagles defense is also currently 32nd against WRs making the matchup extra juicy.

Conclusion

This is one of the most exciting slates so far this year for me. I plan to be overweight on the 49ers and Eagles players more than anything else. I expect that to be an awesome NFL game that I almost wish was in primetime. Not having it in primetime means we get to use it for our Sunday main slate team which is always nice. The Dolphins and Commanders will all be popular, but that game could easily go nuclear making all other lineups obsolete so I will not be ignoring it entirely. Good luck everyone, I hope you finish this year strong. 

Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, you can reach me on Twitter, you can find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server where you can get access to our entire staff!