It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, I am not talking about Christmas; rather, I am talking about the fantasy football playoffs! Some teams are jostling for position as they try to make a playoff push, while others are gearing up for the offseason to rebuild their rosters. Now is the perfect time to take a deep dive into your leagues’ contending rosters to see if they have any holes to fill or injured players (of value) to move before the playoffs begin.
Valuing players in dynasty is difficult at this point in the season, however. Where do the current rookies stand among the veterans? How far down should we push underperforming players? How far up should we make this season’s top producers ascend? Fortunately for you, the DFF team put their heads together and created a mid-season mock draft to answer these questions. You can see those results below:
This article will be centered around the incoming rookies, along with my current projections for where they will be taken in a Superflex startup draft. For flexibility, I have broken down the best of the rookies into tiers since we have to wait a while longer until we find out their NFL draft capital and team situations. Below, I have listed my current Superflex rankings with a tier break to separate each group of players. I will then take a deeper dive into each of the players listed to provide a better idea of where they (or their potential 2024 dynasty draft picks) should be considered throughout the DFF mock draft.
Caleb Williams
Williams has been the most talked-about quarterback prospect for a few years now. This past offseason, we even heard Sean Payton claim he would tank as a head coach to draft him. He does some ridiculous things on the field and has racked up some serious highlight-reel plays in his three years as a starter. The big concern coming out will be his lack of success in big games and against more difficult opponents. It’s no secret, however, that USC played some of the worst defense in the Power 5, which may have contributed heavily to this lack of success. Caleb is a player you don’t overthink throughout the offseason, as the rest of the dynasty community tries to poke holes in his prospect profile. Seven QBs can be argued ahead of Williams at this point, and even that may be too many. In our mock, he could slide in right after Joe Burrow at the 1.09.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are the only two receivers in the NFL right now that I am comfortable taking ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. In a few years, I may look back on that statement and realize I didn’t have him high enough. As a Buckeye fan, I have watched the likes of Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Thomas, and a few others come through the program. What I can tell you is that Marvin Harrison Jr. is better than every one of them. Perhaps the only thing he lacks is freakish athleticism like we’ve seen from Garrett Wilson. All this being said, I will happily take MHJ anywhere between 1.10 and 2.02.
Drake Maye
He may not be as clear-cut as the two players above, but Maye reminds me a ton of the Justin Herbert arc from a few years back. He began at UNC putting up video game numbers, but the lack of team success and a fall-off in his second year have made the community hesitate a bit more than I think they should. Perhaps the most underrated aspect of his profile is his ability to use his legs, and I think that becomes a bigger part of his game moving to the NFL. I still think he should be a member of the top tier for the upcoming class, and I would consider him in the late first or early second, somewhere between Anthony Richardson and Tua Tagovailoa.
Tier 1 Summary (high floor, generational ceiling)
An early first in 2024 Superflex drafts (1.01-1.03) is absolutely a premium selection. We’re going to see plenty of mock drafts with these three guys going in different orders, so grouping them for trade value purposes makes the most sense. Any of those three picks can be inserted into the late first or early second round of our DFF startup mock draft.
Malik Nabers
Losing the Biletnikoff award by only one vote, Nabers isn’t nearly as far behind Marvin Harrison Jr. as he was to begin the college season. He has made incredible progress with his hands and route running over the past year, and the tandem of him and Jayden Daniels was extremely explosive for the LSU offense. That combination was so prolific that Nabers is within 22 yards of the LSU career receiving crown and 235 yards behind Ja’Marr Chase for the single-season receiving record heading into their bowl game. Nabers’ game reminds me a ton of D.J. Moore coming out of Maryland, but I believe he possesses a bit more athleticism. For our mock, I like taking Nabers somewhere between Tyreek Hill and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the third round.
Brock Bowers
One of the most athletic and diverse tight ends we have seen in recent memory, Brock Bowers will be a force in the NFL. His startup draft stock will be buoyed this offseason due to the massive success of Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid this year. Bowers is far and away a better prospect than either of the aforementioned players, and I believe many people will be pushing for Bowers to be a top 3 dynasty tight end before ever stepping foot on an NFL field. Swing for the fences with selecting Bowers in a startup, as he has the potential to provide a positional advantage akin to Travis Kelce in the right situation. The late second to early third round ahead of Hockenson in our mock is appropriate, pending his team situation.
Jayden Daniels
The biggest wildcard at the quarterback position heading into the draft cycle is Jayden Daniels. He possesses true Konami code ability and has shown us his ability to improve in the passing game. He should receive first-round draft capital with relative ease, which is going to push him into tier one for some. My current stance is that there isn’t much he can do to overtake any of my top 3 players in this article at this point, but perhaps he will prove me wrong after he plays a season in the league. I’m comfortable taking Daniels somewhere in the late second to early third round. There is no reason he shouldn’t be drafted ahead of Deshaun Watson, Sam Howell, and Brock Purdy, whom we have in the third round of our mock.
Tier 2 Summary (high floor, high ceiling)
The 1.04-1.06 picks in rookie drafts are a step below the top three picks, but an argument can be made that each player has the potential to move even farther up startup boards if things unfold the right way. Generally, I select this profile of player at the back end of the second round and throughout the third round, depending on the team build. All three players should be taken between Jahmyr Gibbs (2.11) and Tank Dell (3.11) in our startup mock.
Rome Odunze
If you turned on any Washington game this season, you probably witnessed Rome Odunze doing something special. He recorded 80 yards or more in 12/13 games this season, found the endzone in 8/13 games, and did it twice in 5/13 games. At 6’3″ and 215 lbs, he will be very high up on some teams’ boards this draft season. The late fourth to early fifth round is a safe spot to insert him into our mock draft.
Emeka Egbuka
Emeka Egbuka had a disappointing season for the Buckeyes, considering the expectations coming into the season. The former number one wide receiver from the 2021 class was expected to put up numbers comparable to Marvin Harrison in 2023, but unfortunately, finished short of 500 yards on the season and was outproduced by the team’s starting tight end, Cade Stover. He should still be a first-round NFL pick, but he seems to have lost a ton of steam compared to last offseason. I would not be surprised if he returned to school to ensure his first-round draft status. Assuming he does declare, however, I like taking him after Michael Pittman (5.4) and before the 6th round begins.
Keon Coleman
Contrary to Egbuka, we may not have seen any player improve their draft stock more than Coleman did this year. Transferring out of Michigan State to play with Florida State’s sensational quarterback, Jordan Travis, was the best thing he could have done for his career. He possesses a similar frame to Rome Odunze but arguably boasts the most freakish athletic ability of any wide receiver in this class. If the pieces come together, he can become a true alpha in the NFL (something I think we can only say of him and MHJ in this class). The flip side to this coin, though, is he may also be the riskiest selection of any 2024 first-round dynasty pick, and fantasy owners could experience a Quentin Johnston-esque free-fall next year. All of this said, he should still be taken between DK Metcalf (6.9) and Deebo Samuel (7.6).
Tier 3 Summary (medium floor, high ceiling)
The 1.07-1.09 picks for the 2024 rookie class are a group of players who need a few things to come together before we can truly push them up the draft boards. Due to the lower floor and the increase in the risk of taking each player, I would not trade any player taken in the top four rounds of our mock for a pick in this range without getting something extra.
Troy Franklin
Troy Franklin is a true junior early declare and broke out as a true sophomore with 891 yards and nine touchdowns. He also had a very impressive 2.94 receiving yards per team pass attempt (rYPTPA) this year on a prolific Oregon Ducks offense. Unsure how to evaluate this statistic? This is a calculation of a team’s total passing yards (or, in this case, Franklin’s total receiving yards) divided by the team’s total number of pass attempts). This past season, Franklin had the same RYPTPA as Jordan Addison had coming out of school, and we’ve already witnessed some of his game-changing ability for the Minnesota Vikings in his rookie season. A mid-seventh-round pick is a fine place to select Franklin per our startup.
Xavier Worthy
When evaluating Worthy with the ball in his hands, don’t blink. He was clocked as the fastest player in college football this season at a whopping 22.7 MPH. Combine that type of speed with his all-around skill set, and you have the makings of a highly talented NFL wide receiver. Worthy may be my favorite receiver to watch as he transitions to the next level, and I think a startup draft could very well be the cheapest you will ever be able to acquire him. He may not be able to accept a true alpha role in the NFL, but you can still take him confidently around the mid-seventh round, just above Deebo Samuel (7.6) on our draft board.
Braelon Allen
Allen is the only running back that cracks the top 12 for this article, but the RB1 in this class will likely be dictated by the draft capital that each player gets come draft night. For now, I believe Allen possesses the size and speed combination that we love to see at the position, and he added to his draft profile this past season by showing off his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. He never achieved the usage that was given to many of the Wisconsin backs that came before him (Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor, Corey Clement), but I think that just means there’s a bit less tread on his tires. If Allen does get the privilege of being the first running back taken in the NFL draft, he should be taken somewhere between D’Andre Swift (6.04) and James Cook (7.04) in our mock.
Tier 4 Summary (medium floor, medium ceiling)
The picks in the back end of the first round (1.10-1.12) of 2024 SF drafts are a bit trickier to project. The three players above, as well as some of the names mentioned below, are all capable of entering the discussion for these picks. None of these players will likely provide your team with matchup-altering stats, but you should be excited to hold these picks to help build depth and consistency among your rosters. Regardless of the players that fall into this tier, the late sixth to early seventh are where they should fall.
Other players receiving consideration for tier 4 include Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Legette, Trey Benson, JJ McCarthy, and Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Due to our mock only being ten rounds long and the likely variability of players in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts between now and the NFL draft, I have elected to cap this article at 12 players. First-round picks tend to be the juiciest in trade negotiations as well. If you are interested in discussing any other 2024 rookie and where I might select them in startups this offseason, please reach out to me on Twitter @Evan_Kerr_ or comment on our mock draft. Thank you for reading! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
