Passivity is a death sentence in the world of dynasty fantasy football. In order to gain an edge over your opponents, you have to keep a finger on the pulse of the market at all times. You have to know when it is time to acquire a player and when to trade a player away.
It’s time to trade away Dameon Pierce.
The Tweet
Let’s back up for a second. On Saturday, I posted this tweet.
Unsurprisingly, all of Dameon Pierce’s biggest fans stopped by to inform me that I’m a big nerd who should watch the tape, that Dameon Pierce is not like those other Day 3 RBs, and that the Texans wouldn’t dream of replacing him.
“Why would you sell a 22-year-old workhorse RB, you idiot? He’s a STUD!”
Here’s the thing: those people might be right. I definitely am a big nerd, and there is a non-zero chance that Pierce maintains this type of workload in future seasons. He could be the next Devonta Freeman and finish as the overall RB1 next year. But I don’t care about what might happen; I care about what is most likely to happen. The fantasy landscape is far too fluid to deal in absolutes. Instead, we should all be aiming to make optimal decisions week to week that are rooted in probability.
The Range of Outcomes
Every player has a range of outcomes, which covers their best to their worst-case scenario. Different players have different ranges of outcomes and different probabilities of hitting certain outcomes along that range.
To best understand Pierce’s range of outcomes in the future, we first have to examine his current production. Pierce ranks as the RB13 in PPR leagues at the time of this writing. He has averaged 19.5 PPG over his last four games with at least 100 scrimmage yards in every contest. He’s been great for fantasy.
Given the lack of competition in Houston, we shouldn’t expect Pierce’s workload to decrease significantly at any point this season. However, his role is unsustainable in the long term. From Weeks 2 to 5, Pierce averaged 80.3% of the Texans’ RB opportunities (carries + targets). For the season, that share would rank fourth behind Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry. Even if Pierce remains the starter in future seasons, we should not expect top-five RB utilization.
The last piece of the puzzle is receiving work. Playing in all phases and commanding a high target share is what unlocks league-winning upside. Dameon Pierce was not an impressive receiver in college, and he has not been an impressive receiver so far in the NFL. He ranks 30th in yards per route run and, despite minimal competition, 39th in route participation. He’s being subbed out for 32-year-old journeyman Rex Burkhead in many passing situations.
So, what should we expect from Dameon Pierce in 2023 and beyond? There are three possibilities.
- The Texans add another RB in free agency or the draft who relegates Pierce to a backup role or dramatically lessens his workload.
Considering what we’ve seen with James Robinson and Elijah Mitchell in recent seasons, this is a very real possibility. Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, and Damien Harris are all scheduled to hit the market this offseason, and the upcoming rookie class has several top-notch prospects.
- The Texans keep Pierce in a starting role while upgrading their depth at the position.
This is the most likely outcome. The NFL is moving more and more towards a committee approach, and I do not believe the Texans will be comfortable rolling with Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale as their only other RBs moving forward.
We should expect the Texans to at least secure a competent backup this offseason to take some of Pierce’s heavy workload and provide injury insurance. In this scenario, Pierce would remain firmly in the RB2 conversation next season.
- The Texans add nothing to their RB room and continue to feature Pierce in a Derrick Henry-esque role.
According to the Dameon Pierce truthers in my mentions, this outcome is guaranteed as long as Lovie Smith remains the coach of the Texans. According to historical trends and basic common sense, this is by far the least likely outcome for Pierce. We’ve seen time and time again that Day 3 RBs do not have significant staying power. They are at a higher risk of being replaced due to injury or poor performance because the team is not heavily invested in their success.
The Market
Let’s circle back now to what I said at the top of this article.
It’s time to trade away Dameon Pierce.
According to Keep Trade Cut, Dameon Pierce is valued as the dynasty RB10. He is in the same tier as D.K. Metcalf, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and Garrett Wilson. He is more valuable than a mid-2023 first-round pick or an early 2024 first-round pick. I understand that KTC is not a perfect reflection of market value, but I’ve seen enough trades in my leagues and on Twitter to know that the hype is out of control.
At RB10, Pierce has an asymmetrical downside. Even if the Texans completely neglect the RB position this offseason, he doesn’t have the upside to crack the top five. His value is essentially maxed out at this point with nowhere to go but down. As a Day 3 pick, he’s more likely to lose value due to injury, poor performance, or added competition.
On the other hand, many of the assets with the “same” market value as Pierce are likely to accrue value and are more resistant to external circumstances. You may not want to trade Pierce for draft capital if you are contending and need the points right now, but otherwise, there is no better investment. Draft picks cannot get injured or replaced. They always accrue value.
Quarterbacks like Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson have long track records of production and far more job security than Pierce. First-round rookie WRs like Garrett Wilson, Drake London, and Chris Olave are also more likely to maintain their market value in the face of negative external circumstances.
As fun as the Dameon Pierce experience has been for those that drafted him late, we cannot get lost in the moment. We must constantly consider and reconsider a player’s range of outcomes and market value to find the best path forward.
In the case of Dameon Pierce, the choice is clear: sell, sell, sell.
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
