A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYG), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
Some ground rules – so this series doesn’t take centuries, I’ll be evaluating one QB, one RB, one TE, and two WRs from each team, giving a total of 20 players every article. I’ll post their Redraft ADP (sourced from Underdog) and their Dynasty ADP (sourced from AdeikoADP, @Adeiko_FF on Twitter). Since there isn’t a large enough sample size of Superflex Redraft ADP, I’ll be evaluating by positional rank, not true ADP. For example, if I state that Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is QB1, that does not mean he is selected at the 1.01 in Redraft. That means he is the first QB taken off the board.
I’ll then pick whether the player’s value lies closer to his Redraft ADP, Dynasty ADP, or somewhere in the middle.
Let’s continue.
New Orleans Saints
QB: Derek Carr
Redraft ADP: QB19
Dynasty ADP: QB25
- Carr has been priced about here his entire career but his free agency signing has New Orleans Saints Super Bowl LVIII odds smack dab middle of the pack. You know exactly what you’re getting with him, and he’s at the back of the last tier of quarterbacks you can draft in startups and expect to get any amount of points from. While he may be an underrated NFL quarterback, he will always have a ceiling of a low-end QB2 due to his lack of rushing. The entire round where he is drafted lacks difference-making players, so if you absolutely need Carr as your QB2, feel free. Don’t expect more than 15 points per game
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Alvin Kamara
Redraft ADP: RB31
Dynasty ADP: RB35
- His entire career, we’ve seen Kamara be the best or second-best pass-catching RB in the league. Much is unknown about his situation, but whenever he’s on the field, he scores fantasy points. Last year seemed to be when Kamara lost a step, but if he plays next season, he will significantly outproduce his ADP. If he doesn’t play, it’s at the cost of an 11th-round pick.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Juwan Johnson
Redraft ADP: TE19
Dynasty ADP: TE25
- We see this every year where some random TE will score a bunch of touchdowns and then be bad the following year. This year was Juwan Johnson’s turn. Don’t chase touchdowns; they’re the least predictive metric of next year’s fantasy points. Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Chris Olave
Redraft ADP: WR12
Dynasty ADP: WR8
- Olave is definitely good; no doubt about that. Carr is also better than Andy Dalton (QB – CAR) and Jameis Winston (QB – NO). Purely in terms of wide receivers, his value lies in the middle of WR12 and WR8. What I have a problem with is where he gets drafted in startups, which is the end of the second round. While that isn’t what this series is about, stay tuned to DFF for an exciting article coming soon exactly about this conundrum.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Michael Thomas
Redraft ADP: WR47
Dynasty ADP: WR60
- The fact you can get Thomas in the 13th round is incredible. Even if he’s cooked, he’s still never been anything besides a WR1 in PPG when he’s on the field. At this price, I’m totally in.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
Carolina Panthers
QB: Bryce Young
Redraft ADP: QB24
Dynasty ADP: QB11
- Young’s ADPs in both formats make sense – QB is the most important position in Superflex Dynasty, and his Year 1 receiving core is, without a doubt, the worst in the league. I have three members of his WR corps labeled “droppable!” The Panthers also lack a first-round pick next draft to supplement this corps. I lay out my thoughts on Young in the Twitter thread below, but I think his value lies between the two.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: Miles Sanders
Redraft ADP: RB19
Dynasty ADP: RB20
- Sanders played very well last season on one of the best offenses in the league. On that offense, he scored 12.7PPG, good for RB21. 31% of his fantasy points came from his touchdowns, of which he had 11. Now, he’s on one of the worst offenses in the league, almost certainly going to score fewer touchdowns, and we’re drafting him above his PPG? I’ll pass at price.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: Hayden Hurst
Redraft ADP: TE26
Dynasty ADP: TE34
- Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Adam Thielen
Redraft ADP: WR64
Dynasty ADP: WR76
- Thielen is mostly cooked at this point. His best chance of maintaining any value was continuing to benefit from the volume of the Vikings. Being the WR2 on the Vikings is better than being the WR1 on the rookie-quarterback-led Panthers. He’s closer to droppable than roster-able at this point.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: DJ Chark
Redraft ADP: WR68
Dynasty ADP: WR78
- Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB: Baker Mayfield
Redraft ADP: QB32
Dynasty ADP: QB35
- We have five seasons of the NFL to know that Baker Mayfield is not good. Don’t fool yourself.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Rachaad White
Redraft ADP: RB26
Dynasty ADP: RB23
- Rachaad White was an incredible receiving back in college, but that ability hasn’t translated to the NFL, posting extremely pedestrian receiving numbers. Now, while White seems to be the lead RB in Tampa Bay’s backfield, Tom Brady (QB – FA) has been replaced with Baker Mayfield, and the pass rate is due to regress, as Tampa Bay led the league in pass attempts with 45.4 attempts/game. At this price, I’m probably siding with Redraft.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Cade Otton
Redraft ADP: TE34
Dynasty ADP: TE31
- Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR1: Mike Evans
Redraft ADP: WR34
Dynasty ADP: WR45
- Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (WR – TB) are both mid target share, high ADoT players who have benefitted from outrageous passing volume and elite QB play the last couple of seasons. I suspect that will come crashing down this season. Coupled with his age (29.8), I think we’ve seen the last of Mike Evans being a useful fantasy asset.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Chris Godwin
Redraft ADP: WR28
Dynasty ADP: WR32
- Using the same logic I did above with Evans, I’m mostly out on Godwin. Outlier efficiency led to his spectacular 2019 season, where he was the WR2 (19.6PPG). And the volume in Tampa Bay isn’t sustainable, especially with the QB play incoming from Mayfield. I’ll pass on Godwin as well.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Atlanta Falcons
QB: Desmond Ridder
Redraft ADP: QB30
Dynasty ADP: QB30
- I guess there is consensus in the community. Ridder probably isn’t good, but at price, he’s a fine emergency QB2.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: Bijan Robinson
Redraft ADP: RB3
Dynasty ADP: RB1
- He seems to be everything he was hyped to be. Consensus RB1.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: Kyle Pitts
Redraft ADP: TE5
Dynasty ADP: TE2
- Pitts and Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) are the closest things to ‘the next Travis Kelce’ (TE – KC) that we have in the league so far. Two seasons ago, we saw Andrews put up those Kelce numbers, and Pitts is only 22 years old with the most insane peripherals ever (27.3% TS, 32.9% air yards share, 13.1 ADoT). Being the next Kelce is a big ask, but those two guys have the best chance of doing it. You can read more about Pitts here in this article from @WaiverWolf.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Drake London
Redraft ADP: WR23
Dynasty ADP: WR14
- Drake London rounds out the Falcons, who have the most disrespected but alluring skill position core in the NFL. London is similar to Pitts: both were selected in the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft, posted outrageous peripherals in their rookie season (London posted a 29.4% TS, 2.40 YPRR, 32.4% TPRR), and are underpriced. While the QB and play-calling situation in Atlanta doesn’t seem to be indicative of scoring fantasy points, we buy talent, not the situation. His pricing disparity makes sense as we are not expecting great counting statistics from London this year again.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Mack Hollins
Redraft ADP: WR103
Dynasty ADP: WR123
- You know the saying, “Three’s a crowd”? Including Bijan, four’s a crowd. Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Thanks so much for reading! For other informative Dynasty articles, make sure to stay tuned at Dynastyfootballfactory.com. If you liked this article, follow me on Twitter @716DFF, and the whole DFF team @DFF_Dynasty. Check out this thread for some other Dynasty tips, and click here for all of my other articles! Have an amazing day! Cheers!
