A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” I agree! But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYG), who is only 26 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll evaluate every skill position player on every team and give my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
Some ground rules – so this series doesn’t take centuries, I’ll be evaluating one QB, one RB, one TE, and two WRs from each team, giving a total of 20 players every article. I’ll post their Redraft ADP (sourced from Underdog) and their Dynasty ADP (sourced from AdeikoADP, @Adeiko_FF on Twitter). Since there isn’t a large enough sample size of Superflex Redraft ADP, I’ll be evaluating by positional rank, not true ADP. For example, if I state that Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is QB1, that does not mean he is selected at the 1.01 in Redraft; that means he is the first QB taken off the board.
I’ll then pick whether the player’s value lies closer to his Redraft ADP, Dynasty ADP, or somewhere in the middle.
Let’s continue.
Philadelphia Eagles
QB: Jalen Hurts
Redraft ADP: QB2
Dynasty ADP: QB3
- It makes sense here. Toward the end of the season (after his elbow injury), Allen played poorly, while Hurts was the QB1 in PPG last season. They’re back-to-back in both rankings, so not a huge discrepancy either way. You could go either way, in my opinion. We’ve just seen it for longer from Allen.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: D’Andre Swift
Redraft ADP: RB23
Dynasty ADP: RB20
- This one is puzzling. If we’re so sure D’Andre Swift is the guy in Philadephia, why aren’t the masses (Redrafters) drafting him this way? @paul_dff on Twitter has some great takes on Swift, which he often speaks of on The Factory Tour. To sum it up, Philadelphia doesn’t throw to its RBs enough to justify spending a pick in the seventh round on an RB who sees most of his production from receptions.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Dallas Goedert
Redraft ADP: TE6
Dynasty ADP: TE6
- It seems like everyone agrees. He’s closer to great than good, but miles away from elite, and probably won’t ever be while playing next to the two stud WRs he plays next to.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR1: A.J. Brown
Redraft ADP: WR6
Dynasty ADP: WR5
- I err closer to Redraft than Dynasty on this one, simply because we haven’t ever seen A.J. Brown break fantasy, posting only 17.7 PPG last season. Do we expect Jalen Hurts to be throwing as much as he did this past season? Maybe. I’d rather grab anyone else going around him in Dynasty at this price tag, seeing as he’s going at the beginning of the second round. Compared to the other WRs in this tier, you can make the case that he’s ranked appropriately, but compared to the other players at this price point, I’m firmly out.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR2: DeVonta Smith
Redraft ADP: WR13
Dynasty ADP: WR10
- I lean Dynasty here, as I think the value gap between A.J. Brown and Smith is closer than some might think. He only scored two PPG less than Brown, and Smith is still going into year three, where we may see more improvement. 27% (Smith) vs 28% (Brown) target shares make the case for Smith more compelling. Brown is probably not Ja’Marr Chase to Smith’s Tee Higgins, meaning that Smith could have a more dominant role than some analysts say.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
New York Giants
QB: Daniel Jones
Redraft ADP: QB14
Dynasty ADP: QB16
- Here’s the guy who inspired me to start this whole series, and I still have the same take as I did back in May. Unfortunately, his two ADPs are almost identical, meaning that the markets also have reached a consensus, so I don’t have much basis to create a “take” since his price tag has settled down. Daniel Jones is probably not a great quarterback, and he’s probably not a bad one. He runs a lot, but this rushing production will likely come down next season, and he’ll have to become a much better passer to finish with 18PPG again. While he did get a large contract extension, his range of outcomes is relatively slim where he gains value next season. On the other hand, we don’t need every player to gain value; sometimes, we can just be happy with the points. I’ve seen this argument used when comparing Jones’ potential career to someone like Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN), stating that you’d probably be happy with a decade of Kirk-level production if you got him in the fourth round of a startup. I don’t entirely disagree with this either, if Daniel Jones was cheaper and he wasn’t going ahead of guys who can actually give you game-breaking production this season, like Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) or Davante Adams (WR – LV). However, since this series isn’t analyzing ADP in relation to other players of all positions, just individual positions, my official take will be that Daniel Jones is correctly priced compared to other QBs but overpriced when compared to all positions.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: Saquon Barkley
Redraft ADP: RB5
Dynasty ADP: RB6
- Like Jones, I have a pretty strong take, but the markets have seemingly come to a consensus, so I don’t have to hammer a point home on something that is already (seemingly) known. I think Saquon is quite overpriced in Dynasty, as he’s almost 27 years old and hasn’t ever given us game-breaking production since his rookie season. People are so happy that Saquon was “back” last season that we didn’t realize he isn’t actually “back.” Still, his Dynasty ADP is lower than his Redraft, so I will say that his value lies closer to Dynasty’s ADP but is still overpriced. I’m going to break from a common theme with this series of usually listening to Redraft’s prices to pound the table and say that Saquon Barkley is overpriced in all formats. Maybe it’s just due to the state of the RB landscape in the NFL currently. Time will tell.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: Darren Waller
Redraft ADP: TE7
Dynasty ADP: TE9
- Smash at Dynasty ADP. It wasn’t that long ago (2020) when Waller delivered us a monumental 17.4 PPG and has been unlucky with injuries in 2021 and 2022. As we all know, injuries are mostly random, so at this price, I’m smashing Waller in any league where I’m trying to compete. Yes, he’s almost 31 years old. Still, TE is the second-most important position in Dynasty (check out my Draft Strategy Article in the DFF Startup Survival Guide for more on this), so I’m prioritizing Waller as the late-round TE this year in Dynasty.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR1: Wan’Dale Robinson
Redraft ADP: WR93
Dynasty ADP: WR64
- I don’t really ever chase late-round WRs, but this one is baffling. 19% TS, 23% TPRR (on limited games) as a rookie? Coming off an ACL tear in a time when ACL tears mean practically nothing, as the recovery rates are so high, especially for WRs? Presumably, the team’s best wide receiver (subjective, but not really. That depth chart is gross)? Round two NFL Draft capital? He’s dirt cheap. Go get him on your roster. Neither Redraft nor Dynasty has wised up to this one.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Jalin Hyatt
Redraft ADP: WR84
Dynasty ADP: WR57
- According to the WR1 Model developed by @force_fantasy, Hyatt has a roughly 50% chance to hit a top-24 season. I’m alright with taking a shot this late at these prices and this depth chart. His Dynasty ADP is more than acceptable for a third-round rookie.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Dallas Cowboys
QB: Dak Prescott
Redraft ADP: QB12
Dynasty ADP: QB11
- Hm. I was expecting Redraft ADP to be much higher than Dynasty ADP, but they are about the same. To do a bit more research, I will consult the best data analysts I know to see if they can give me some projections about Prescott’s season. Consulting FanDuel’s season-long player props, I see Dak has a passing yardage prop of o/u 3,875.5 and a passing touchdown prop of o/u 26.5. Vegas doesn’t have odds listed for his rushing yards or rushing touchdowns, so going off his statistics from last season of 182 yards and one touchdown, his projected PPG for this season is –
(3875 x .04) + (26 x 4) + (182 x .1) + (1 x 6) / 17
(155) + (104) + (18.2) + (6) / 17
(283.2) / 17
16.7PPG.
Is Vegas wrong? Or should we be smashing the overs and drafting Prescott as the QB11 in Dynasty? Personally, and I hate to say this, I may be out on Prescott, but still willing to take him as a top-12 quarterback off the board. Just assuredly as the twelfth.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
RB: Tony Pollard
Redraft ADP: RB6
Dynasty ADP: RB14
- Underpriced in Dynasty. Go get him on your squad. We’ve been waiting for this day for nearly three seasons, and it’s finally here. The only hair in the ointment is that he’s 26.3 years old. Besides this, severely underpriced (pending the addition of a veteran).
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Jake Ferguson
Redraft ADP: TE28
Dynasty ADP: TE34
- Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: CeeDee Lamb
Redraft ADP: WR7
Dynasty ADP: WR3
- We finally saw CeeDee last season justify his price tag, even with less than stellar play from his QB, so I think there’s less of an argument this season as there was last that “any of the top-eight WRs in ADP could be the Dynasty wide receiver three.” CeeDee is WR three, but I still think he’s overpriced relative to the other players going around him.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Brandin Cooks
Redraft ADP: WR42
Dynasty ADP: WR52
- 11.2 PPG and a 21% TS in 2022 signals that the end is probably near or here for Cooks, so I’ll pass at even this price.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Washington Commanders
QB: Sam Howell
Redraft ADP: QB27
Dynasty ADP: QB27
- An unexpected consensus here. I think his price is fine relative to the other QBs, although there are a couple of others I’d take over him. At the price of a ninth-round pick, I’m fine taking a shot here.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: Brian Robinson
Redraft ADP: RB37
Dynasty ADP: RB37
- Another perfect consensus. I was expecting to go into this claiming that Robinson is overpriced, but at the price of an 11th-round pick, he’s the type of target I like in the later rounds (which you’d know if you’ve read the DFF Startup Guide OR listened to The Factory Tour: Episode 15 featuring Yours Truly) – RBs who have clear paths to upside in ambiguous backfields. His upside is slightly lower than some other guys I say the same thing about due to his lack of pass-catching, but that’s factored into his price.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
TE: Logan Thomas
Redraft ADP: TE35
Dynasty ADP: TE46
- Nothing exciting going on here. Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Terry McLaurin
Redraft ADP: WR23
Dynasty ADP: WR29
- Relative to all other WRs, his price is somewhere in the middle here. Like we’ve been saying for seemingly forever, until Terry has a real quarterback, he will be stuck in wide receiver two-three territory forever. We know he’s a good WR, but that situation is seemingly bad. I can’t imagine Sam Howell is the truth, but if he is, we could finally see Terry breakout. I’m not putting my chips into that likelihood, though.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Jahan Dotson
Redraft ADP: WR38
Dynasty ADP: WR31
- I’ve come around on Dotson this offseason after hearing how his last few game splits stacked up (which was brought up on The Factory Tour in episode 13) against his teammate and have concluded that he’s underpriced. He was injured for a good portion of the season, but in his last five games, he put up these stats –
14.7PPG, 29.9% TPRR, 2.94 YPRR, and a 23% TS.
For comparison, here are Terry’s stats in those games –
15.5PPG, 28.6% TPRR, 2.95 YPRR, and a 23% TS.
These are nearly identical stats besides the PPG. While you can’t reliably trust small sample sizes, this is enough evidence for me to be buying into Dotson at price.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Thanks so much for reading! For other informative Dynasty articles, make sure to stay tuned at Dynastyfootballfactory.com. If you liked this article, follow me on Twitter @716DFF, and the whole DFF team @DFF_Dynasty. Check out this thread for some other Dynasty tips, and click here for all of my other articles! Have an amazing day! Cheers!
