Hello and welcome to a new ‘Dynasty What If?’ series. In this series, @paul_dff and I will review two possible expectations for different players for the 2023 NFL season. These will include a projected ceiling outcome and a potential floor outcome. After that, we will discuss what we think is most likely. The idea is to lay out and consider what is possible and then bring it back to Earth and compare that to what is probable. In addition, we will relay potential effects for every scenario on the players’ dynasty values. Now, let’s dive into our first subject: Jahmyr Gibbs.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Alvin Kamara 2.0
Paul’s ceiling case
Let’s start by looking back to the 2017 New Orleans Saints. They drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round while already rostering Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, two proven assets at the RB position. They also had Michael Thomas as the only real weapon and Drew Brees passing the ball, who was not very well known for his rushing abilities. The Saints that year averaged 62 plays per game. Alvin Kamara played 16 games, rushed the ball 120 times, and scored eight times on the ground while adding 100 targets, 81 receptions, and 5 receiving TDs through the air. Kamara did all this while only playing 44% of the Saints’ snaps. Kamara was the overall RB4 in points per game as a rookie after posting these numbers. Now let’s look at the Lions. They only employ one proven RB, David Montgomery. Their main and only WR threat is high-volume earner Amon-Ra St. Brown, and their QB is a great passer, not-so-great rusher, Jared Goff. The Lions ran 64 plays per game in 2022, which outpaced the Saints’ team I mentioned. Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted 12th overall to be a producer for this team. You simply do not draft a running back that high to leave him on the bench. Gibbs can easily replicate a similar season to Alvin Kamara’s rookie year, if not improve on it. He has a legitimate top-six RB upside as a rookie.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Another 199-pound bust
Chris’ floor case
Alvin Kamara was a great rookie, that is true, but these guys are not the same prospects. Alvin Kamara weighed in at 214 pounds with a BMI of 30.7. Meanwhile, Gibbs came in far below the 210-pound threshold at 199 and has a 29.4 BMI, below the 30.0 mark. Rookie RBs that weigh less than 200 pounds since 2014 have averaged 5.58 fantasy points per game. If we narrow that down to only players draft day three or better, you get an average of 4.53 ppg as rookies. We also cannot deny the skills that David Montgomery possesses. He has had over 50 targets in two of the last three seasons, and the one time he didn’t, he had 41 on one of the lowest pass volume teams in 20 years. Even if we look past Gibbs’s weight and at his closest analytical comps, we get guys like Kalen Ballage, Tyler Ervin, Marcus Murphy, Trestan Ebner, and Brittain Brown. Who even are these people? If these names don’t scare you off of an undersized rookie RB, I do not know what will.
Conclusion: What’s probable?
We both agree that Jahmyr Gibbs is more likely to be a stud than end up like the names I mentioned during my floor case. Gibbs was drafted twelfth overall. The other low-weight RBs have failed because the coaches don’t like to use them, not because it magically makes them bad. But with the team’s investment, Gibbs will see a lot of work. We also need to consider that the Lions’ RBs were the number one scoring RB room in the NFL last season; the Lions like to use the position. Jahmyr Gibbs easily has a 100 target upside, and we saw with Alvin Kamara how few carries you need to be an elite producer in fantasy. If Gibbs can see about eight carries per game and about seven targets, then the sky is the limit. Even if Gibbs isn’t good, he is so safe as a rookie RB. These players mostly maintain or increase in value over the following calendar year. This includes recent names like James Cook, who was terrible, J.K. Dobbins, who never saw over 50% snap shares as a rookie, and even Travis Etienne, who missed his entire rookie season with an injury. There is already a legitimate case for Gibbs to be the currency RB2 in Dynasty, but after this season, it will be the consensus. Buy Jahmyr Gibbs before he has a top-eight rookie season and becomes an early second-round startup pick.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you want to talk to me about my article or ask any generic dynasty or trade questions, you can find Paul and me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017 and @paul_dff. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
