Mr. Irrelevant. The last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Nobody could have predicted the career trajectory Brock Purdy is currently on in Year 2. The Iowa State product has gone from battling for a spot on the 53-man roster to the face of the San Francisco 49ers and an MVP candidate. The meteoric rise of Brock Purdy has proven not just to be a flash in the pan; he’s the franchise quarterback in San Fran. As Dynasty players, we must throw away our priors and determine precisely what Purdy’s price tag should be moving into Year 3 and beyond. Is he a legitimate Top-12 Dynasty QB? How early should we reach for Brock in our startup drafts? Let’s discuss.
2023 Season
First, let’s talk about the 2023 regular season numbers Purdy has just produced. Lamar Jackson has all but won the MVP at this point, but prior to the Week 16 game against Baltimore, Purdy was leading all players in the MVP race. While no QB has put up the numbers we have become accustomed to seeing from our NFL MVP, Brock Purdy’s numbers were nothing to scoff at this year. According to Stathead, only three quarterbacks since 2000 have posted a single-season stat line of 4,000 pass yards, 30 pass touchdowns, and a 100+ passer rating by their second year in the NFL. Those three players are Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Brock Purdy.
“Adjusted yards per attempt” is a great way to measure quarterback efficiency. It takes a QB’s yards per attempt, then adds a premium for touchdowns and a penalty for interceptions. Brock Purdy led all quarterbacks in the NFL this season with an AY/A of 9.92, over a full yard better than the next-best QB (C.J. Stroud– 8.70). A lot of this can be attributed to the receiving weapons Purdy has around him, who are great at creating yards after the catch. Here’s where Purdy’s top pass catchers finished in YAC on the season:
Purdy could not have been placed in a better situation, playing for an elite offense under HC Kyle Shanahan. This is a system where Jimmy Garoppolo was able to step in and amass over 4,000 total yards and 28 touchdowns in 2019. Yes, the same Jimmy G that was benched for rookie Aidan O’Connell this year. Still, a fortuitous situation is something we should take into consideration for fantasy purposes. I don’t care if Bryce Young is a more skilled passer of the football than Brock Purdy. For the foreseeable future, we can expect Purdy to be a Niner and Bryce to be a Panther, and that should take precedence.
Regarding fantasy production, Brock Purdy finished as the QB6 overall in 2023 and the QB8 in PPG with 22.4 PPG in six-point pass TD formats. Most of these points came through the air, as just 26.4 total fantasy points came from rushing attempts. Purdy does an excellent job of recognizing when a pocket is collapsing and escaping trouble, but he uses his legs more for extending plays rather than grabbing yardage himself on the ground. This is something to consider, as the lack of rushing upside tells us Purdy will never have the same fantasy ceiling someone like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jackson has.
Trade Value
Over the past 12 months, Purdy has seen his value jump from the QB29 in Dynasty to the QB11, according to KeeptradeCut.
I imagine this ranking dropping a hair after the NFL draft when the buzz around the rookie QBs begins. Personally, I’m valuing Brock Purdy somewhere around the 2024 1.04 rookie pick in Superflex formats, which currently is projected to be players like Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, or Rome Odunze. If I could sell Purdy for the 1.03 or better, I would pull the trigger, as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Marvin Harrison Jr. all have higher fantasy ceilings.
If we’re looking at future picks, I’d be fine selling Purdy for two random 2025 1sts. At this point, we can have confidence that Purdy is a long-term NFL starter. Whether we can project him to consistently be a QB1 in PPG is another question, but his situation gives him an incredibly safe floor. I wouldn’t be willing to sell Purdy for a single first-round pick unless it was guaranteed to be a top-3 pick.
Startup Value
The DFF team recently got together and completed a mid-season 10-round Dynasty Superflex startup mock draft on December 5th, and Brock Purdy was taken at 3.09 as the QB14.
Two quarterbacks taken ahead of Purdy in this draft were Deshaun Watson and Sam Howell, and I would have to imagine both those individuals would easily take Purdy if we drafted again today. Outside of those two, you could make an argument for Purdy over guys like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Dak Prescott. For now, I think I would lean with those four over Purdy, but it’s close. On KeepTradeCut, Purdy is ranked ahead of both Murray and Dak.
There will likely be two or three quarterbacks in the 2024 class that will be valued ahead of Purdy in startups this offseason, including Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and possibly even Jayden Daniels, depending on draft capital. Considering 2024 rookie picks, I think Purdy should be valued as a high-end QB2 in Dynasty, around the early 3rd round of startups.
Conclusion
Purdy is a legit NFL starter; there’s no question about that now. He’s a reliable fantasy player you can build a Dynasty team around. However, the lack of passing volume and rushing upside keeps Purdy as a high-end QB2 in my books, especially considering the QB talent about to enter the league in 2024. The 49ers had the fewest pass attempts in 2023, with just 491. Much of this is because 11 of San Francisco’s 12 regular season wins were by double-digits this year, so they didn’t have to air it out late in games. Still, this makes Purdy’s QB6 overall finish and QB8 finish in PPG even more impressive. He’s putting up these numbers with fewer opportunities than any other starting quarterback.
I wouldn’t reach for Purdy in the first or early second round of your Superflex startups, but if he’s still sitting there at the 2-3 turn, don’t be afraid to take him. If you can grab Purdy as your QB2 in Superflex, you’ve got a rock-solid foundation to build off for the rest of your draft.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
