Bijan, Breece, or Jahmyr?

Who is the dynasty RB1 overall? Ask three different dynasty analysts, and you may get three different answers. There seems to be a clear “Tier 1” consisting of three names: Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs. One could argue Christian McCaffrey deserves consideration as well since he’s currently head and shoulders above the rest of the pack in terms of current fantasy production. And if you’re a strong contender heading into 2024, he’s probably a buy for your team. But CMC will be 28 heading into his 8th season, so we have to expect his decline to be imminent. Considering the value of youth and longevity in dynasty, Bijan, Breece, and Gibbs should be in a tier of their own. It seems like splitting hairs to determine which is most valuable, but making the right choice could drastically improve your dynasty outlook for years to come. I will dive into some analytics and look at each player’s situation to try and determine how these guys should be ranked. First, let’s look at some metrics from PlayerProfiler.

A Breakdown of the Numbers

FPPG – Fantasy Points Per Game (PPR format)

EFPPG – Expected Fantasy Points Per Game (PPR format)

EPA – Expected Points Added

The production and efficiency numbers for these three backs in 2023 are listed above. I’ve color-coded each row: green being the leader, yellow being second, and red being last. Don’t let the colors sway you too much, though, as these guys are incredibly close in several categories. 

Age: Jahmyr and Bijan are headed into Year 2 and their age 22 season, while Breece heads into Year 3 and his age 23 season. Not much of a difference, but every year counts for RBs. Edge goes to Bijan and Jahmyr.

FPPG: Breece led this category with 17.1 FPPG, which ranked as the RB6 overall. Gibbs was not far behind on fewer opportunities, and Bijan finished with a disappointing 14.5 PPG. Bijan was not used as expected in Year 1, with an opportunity share of just 52.5%. Thanks, Arthur Smith. 

EFPPG: This metric measures efficiency; essentially, what we expected a player to score based on volume and opportunity. Breece led this category as well. Bijan was the only one who underperformed (actual fantasy points were less than expected). 

YPC: Gibbs wins by a large margin, averaging over 5 yards per carry this year. 

Juke Rate: Also called broken tackle rate. All three guys put up similar numbers, but Breece was the best. 

EPA: This tells us how many points a player added (or subtracted) from their expected team total. It’s a great metric to see how valuable a player was to their team’s success in real life. Gibbs wins by a landslide, being the only one with a positive EPA. 

Rush YPG: All similar numbers, but Gibbs wins (with the fewest attempts per game, too). 

Receiving YPG: Breece is well ahead of the other two. He was the safety net for the series of fringe-NFL quarterbacks throwing him the ball in 2023. 

Total YPG: All within one fantasy point (10 yards) of one another. Breece takes the dub again.

Receptions per game: You guessed it- Breece. 

Target Share: Bijan beat out Breece here, finishing at 17.2%, which was RB3 overall. All three of these guys are superb pass-catchers. 

From a fantasy production standpoint, Breece gets the nod over Jahmyr and Bijan. You can argue Jahmyr was the most efficient with his workload and possibly even the most valuable to his team’s success, leading in both YPC and EPA. 

Team Outlook

Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs is playing on the best team, and I don’t see that changing next season. The Detroit Lions finished the year atop the NFC North at 12-5 and are still alive in the playoffs, facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday. Gibbs benefits from playing with a quarterback that loves the short-to-intermediate passes and has been known to dump it off to his backs regularly. Jahmyr does have to deal with the best competition, though. David Montgomery had a solid season for the Lions this year, and there’s no reason we won’t see him back in Detroit in 2024. However, Gibbs saw more of the red zone work as the season progressed, which means he was getting the high-value touches. I think Monty will still get a large workload in 2024, but expect most of these to be between the 20s, which don’t generally lead to many fantasy points. Gibbs should continue to expand his role in this backfield and build on his excellent rookie season. 

Breece Hall

Breece Hall suffered the unfortunate fate of Aaron Rodgers tearing his achilles on his first drive as a Jet. As a result, he had to deal with the likes of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle under center the entire year. On top of that, this offensive line did Breece no favors. It was a struggle for New York to move the ball and score points all year. The fact Breece managed to average 17.1 FPPG in this offense is nothing short of a miracle and speaks to how gifted he truly is. Things should be looking up in 2024, assuming Aaron Rodgers is playing. The future HOF’er should do wonders for Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in terms of fantasy production. With Rodgers heading into his age 41 season, he’s not the long-term answer, but hopefully, the Jets can draft or trade for their heir apparent here soon. 

Bijan Robinson

If you owned any of the Atlanta Falcons’ skills players in fantasy this year, you were punching the air all season long. Arthur Smith never ceased to amaze us with his stubborn ways and complete unwillingness to use his best players. I mean, Tyler Allgeier had 186 rush attempts to Bijan’s 214. And Allgeier wasn’t even effective with those touches. I was in the “buy-low on Allgeier” camp last offseason, as the run-heavy scheme in Atlanta led me to believe he would still get ample opportunity and be a borderline flex play at times. But I didn’t expect Bijan only to average 1.6 more rush attempts per game. Why draft a running back 8th overall if that’s how you’re going to use him?

The plus side is that Arthur Smith is now gone, giving us hope for Bijan, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London again. Those who waited out the storm could finally be rewarded for their patience in 2024. The Falcons still need to find a quarterback, though. Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke are not it. Atlanta does have the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft, which could land them Jayden Daniels or even Drake Maye if one falls that far. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade up to an earlier pick, either. Trading for the 1.01 to grab Caleb would be incredible to see, and I’m sure I speak for everyone when I say I’d love to watch that offense every Sunday.

Conclusion

This is about as close as it gets. On KeepTradeCut, these three guys are all within four spots of one another. Looking at their NFL resume and how their situation projects moving forward, I’ll give Jahmyr Gibbs the slightest edge over Breece Hall as my dynasty RB1. Gibbs was a hyper-efficient back who saw his role expand every week and has become a staple in this Detroit offense. He’s the youngest of the three (barely), an excellent receiver, and plays for one of the top offenses in the NFL. 

For my dynasty RB2, give me Breece. This Jets offense has more problems than just the quarterback position, but getting Rodgers back should be a night-and-day difference, provided he’s fully healthy. Breece’s burst and ability to break off explosive plays is second to none, in my opinion. He had six weeks with over 28 PPR fantasy points, and in three of those, he had over 38 fantasy points. In dynasty best ball formats, I may even prefer Breece over Jahmyr. We just need him to get rid of those single-digit fantasy performances. 

Bijan is my dynasty RB3, but he’s closer to RB1 than RB4. Bijan came in with the best prospect profile we’ve seen since Saquon Barkley and was a top-10 NFL draft pick. He’s not even 22 and entering his first season without Arthur Smith as his head coach. We have a lot to be excited about with Bijan. If he moves into the bell cow role (which he should), an RB1 overall finish in 2024 is definitely in his range of possibilities. 

I’m taking all of these guys in the mid-to-late second round of startup drafts, so while I have my preferences, it’s close enough that I’d probably prefer whoever is cheapest. If you can swap players in this tier and get a plus on top (i.e., selling Jahmyr for Bijan + future 2nd), I’d be very willing to do that. There are not many difference-making RBs in fantasy football, so owning any of these three superstars gives you a competitive advantage over most of your league mates. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding