For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep me accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 13 Recap
Thank you Aaron Jones for not falling over before the endzone. This late touchdown ensured that we went a perfect 3-0 on our in-depth picks and 9-6 overall on the week. We are officially past any remaining scheduled BYE weeks, so fingers crossed we get to experience full slates of action every weekend moving forward.
We’ve hit the triple-digit mark on our overall wins and have a win % of just over 50%. We’ll look to improve on that in the weeks to come!
Last Week: 9-6
In-depth picks: 24-15-0
Overall: 102-88-1
Patriots at Rams (-5)
For those of you who watched the Patriots game last week, you know that a good chunk of their 45 points was caused, or directly influenced by, excellent special teams plays. The Chargers’ special teams unit is a meme at this point, so it’s unsurprising that the Patriots were able to find success in this phase of the game. Look for them to come crashing back to Earth against one of the better teams in the NFC.
Titans (-7) at Jaguars
I know I picked the Jaguars last week, but that was almost 100% due to the inflated line on Minnesota’s side. Truth is, the Jags are still a terrible football team. The Titans may have just gotten shellacked by the Browns, but they should still have no problem with Jacksonville’s last-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Jaguars needed a couple of lucky bounces to score against Minnesota.
Jacksonville is allowing an average of 136.9 rushing yards per game to opponents. Look for King Henry to eclipse that mark on his own this Sunday.
Colts (-2.5) at Raiders
Let’s stick with the AFC South. It took the Raiders getting bailed out by a call from the Jets front office to escape with a win last week, and you can’t convince me otherwise.
The Colts covered a 2.5 point spread against a similar opponent in Houston (decent offense, terrible defense) last week. Despite some recent hiccups, their defense still ranks in the top 5 in total yards allowed to opponents. Look for them to stymie the Raiders en route to another victory in a tight AFC South race.
The Rest…
You can find all the Week 14 game odds right here, and my picks in bold below. Any games that do not currently have lines due to COVID postponements will be supplemented before kickoff.
Chiefs (-7) at Dolphins
Vikings at Buccaneers (-6.5)
Cardinals (-2.5) at Giants
Texans at Bears (+1)
Broncos (+3.5) at Panthers
Cowboys at Bengals (+1.5)
Jets at Seahawks (-13.5)
Packers (-7.5) at Lions
Saints (-7.5) at Eagles
Washington (+3.5) at 49’ers
Falcons at Chargers (+2.5)
Steelers at Bills (-2.5)
Ravens (-1.5) at Browns
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
