For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep me accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 11 Recap
A second consecutive negative week, but at least we bounced back with our in-depth picks. We went 2-1 and were a half-point away from going 3-0 on the week. But how can you be mad when this guy is the one that did it to you?
Anyways, we’ll look to bounce back this week in force. I’m admittedly taking some risks this week on my in-depth picks, siding with two teams that are tied for the second-worst ATS record in the league. Still, I think there’s great value to be had in this full slate on NFL action, so let’s get to it!
Last Week: 6-8
In-depth picks: 19-14-0
Overall: 83-76-1
Texans (-3) at Lions
Ouch. The Lions laid an absolute stinker last week against a Panthers’ team that not only was starting its backup quarterback, but was also in the bottom half in the league for total defense. Their team placed six(!) new players on the injury report this week including Jeff Okudah, T.J. Hockenson, and Reggie Ragland. It also appears as though rookie running back D’Andre Swift will miss another game due to a concussion.
Make no mistake, the Texans’ defense is one of the worst in the league. However, their offensive potential is much higher than that of the P.J. Walker-led Panthers. Against a banged-up Lions team, I think they can win by more than three points.
Ravens at Steelers (-4.5)
Am I actually picking against my beloved Ravens on Thanksgiving? What kind of monster have I become…
The Ravens are in a tailspin, with a despondent Lamar Jackson even calling out the effort level of his team. I don’t blame him, but it likely won’t get better this week.
Not only do the Ravens have a short week to prepare for the number one team in the league, but they had to shut their facility down due to COVID-19 in addition to losing several players to the virus.
It just seems like too much of an uphill battle to climb so, sadly, give me the Steelers. For what it’s worth, Pittsburgh also leads the league at 8-2 ATS as well.
Seahawks at Eagles (+5.5)
I know, I know. I’m a masochist.
Hear me out though. The Eagles have been running the ball fairly well. Last week, Miles Sanders had 63 yards on 11 carries in the first half, but only 3 yards on five runs in the second. The Eagles’ passing offense is certainly miserable, but did you see their opponent this week? The Seahawks are giving up an average of 343 passing yards per game!
I don’t think the Eagles win, but their issues certainly match up well against the worst secondary in the league. I can already see the garbage time touchdown to Jalen Reagor that puts the Eagles within 4. Maybe I need to get my eyes checked.
The Rest…
You can find all the NFL game odds right here, and my picks in bold below. Any games that do not currently have lines due to COVID postponements will be supplemented before kickoff.
Washington (+3) at Cowboys
Dolphins (-7) at Jets
Raiders (-3) at Falcons
Cardinals (-2) at Patriots
Browns (-6.5) at Jaguars
Giants at Bengals (+5.5)
Chargers at Bills (-5.5)
Titans (+3.5) at Colts
Panthers at Vikings (-4)
Saints (-6) at Broncos
49ers at Rams (-7)
Chiefs at Buccaneers (+3.5)
Bears at Packers (-8.5)
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
