Intro/Methodology
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. I also included links to all my previous divisional nuggets articles at the bottom of the page. With that said, let’s jump right in!
Colts
Summary
The Colts won a thrilling 34-31 game over the Packers to go to 7-3. They finally came into the game with their entire offense healthy, outside of Parris Campbell who’s been out since Week 2. Overall, the Colts’ offense looked like a solid group and this win likely places the Colts on a path straight to the playoffs.
Quarterback
Philip Rivers completed 24/36 of his passes for 288 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. It wasn’t Rivers’ finest performance, but he did enough to get the Colts a win. Oddly, head coach Frank Reich decided to sub in backup Jacoby Brissett a few times throughout the game for specific packages, as Brissett played seven offensive snaps.
At this point, Rivers has won enough games that he will finish that 2020 season at quarterback, and he won’t get benched for either Brissett or rookie Jacob Eason. Brissett’s contract expires at the end of 2020, so he’ll be on another team. I believe the Colts selected Eason to be their long-term backup quarterback, not a future starter. Therefore, Rivers will either re-sign for 2021, the Colts will sign a different quarterback in free agency like Cam Newton, or the Colts will trade for a displaced former starter like Sam Darnold. In my mind, Rivers is a 50-50 bet to return, so he’s a must-sell in Superflex leagues unless you’re a strong contender.
Running Backs
Of course, Jonathan Taylor dominated the running back touches this week, just as the Colts claimed that Nyheim Hines would see the most touches. Taylor had 22 carries for 90 yards, and he caught four passes for 24 yards. I also know that Taylor had multiple plays called back for holding, including a touchdown. Overall, I’m happy with what we saw from Taylor this week, and I hope he can build on this momentum moving forward to regain his status as a high-end dynasty RB1.
As for Hines and Jordan Wilkins, neither impressed in this game. Hines gained two yards on his six carries, although he did catch three passes for 31 yards. I believe the Colts should use Hines like James White, giving him a carry here and there, but primarily using him as a pass-catcher. Hines is a weapon in the receiving game, although he isn’t a good prototypical running back.
Wilkins is only a backup. He’s a competent backup, good enough that the Colts likely won’t re-sign Marlon Mack. Wilkins can step in for either Taylor or Hines in a pinch, and I believe a Taylor-Hines-Wilkins backfield makes for a perfect group for the Colts in 2021. Hold Wilkins on the end of your dynasty rosters as a Taylor handcuff.
Receiving Weapons
Unfortunately, the Colts spread the ball around too much to have any viable receiving weapons right now. Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson, and DeMichael Harris all caught passes this week, although nobody had a massive game. At this point, Pittman is the only healthy receiver I want on the Colts, and I’m interested in Campbell when he returns from injury. The Colts will bring in another high-equity receiver for 2021 either in free agency or the NFL Draft, who will make all of these other players irrelevant for dynasty purposes.
The Colts’ tight end situation is the same problem. Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox are all fine, but nobody stands out. It’s just a rotation, and I wish the Colts had one every-down tight end instead of three copies of similar production. These three players aren’t worth a look in dynasty formats outside of a spot start.
Titans
Summary
The Titans got a crucial 30-24 overtime win here over the Ravens. They didn’t have any significant injuries entering the game, and they also didn’t suffer any. Overall, the Titans had a solid, if uninspiring offensive performance in this game.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill completed 22/31 of his passes for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He also added his traditional rushing floor, with four carries for 35 yards. Right now, Tannehill is my dynasty QB11, atop the tier with players like Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Tannehill is only 32 years old, so he should have multiple years of fantasy production ahead of him. But, Tannehill doesn’t seem to carry much name value, so I always recommend him as an excellent dynasty buy for contending teams.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry is the only Titans’ running back worth mentioning, and he had a huge game this week. Henry took 28 carries for 133 yards, including a walk-off touchdown. As usual, the Titans didn’t throw to Henry at all, as he had only one reception for -1 yard. Henry has ridiculously easy playoff matchups versus the Jaguars, Lions, and Packers, so he’s my favorite running back buy for title contenders.
Receiving Weapons
While many players caught a pass for the Titans this week, they only have three relevant receiving options: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith. All three players had six or seven targets, and each player produced. Brown had four receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown, a fantastic display of after-the-catch skills. But, Brown also had some critical drops for the second straight week. I’m not panicking on Brown, though, and he’s still a high-end dynasty WR1.
Davis once again displayed his raw talent, catching five passes for 113 yards. Even though Davis has played well, I can’t imagine that the Titans re-sign him in free agency, as he will likely earn at least $8-10 million/year. Davis is one of my favorite dynasty buys for rebuilders because you probably can’t truly trust him in 2020, but he can majorly rebound if he lands a sizable contract in a more pass-friendly offense.
As for Smith, I don’t understand how to value him. The Titans continue to give fellow tight end Anthony Firkser significant targets even though Smith is a far more dynamic player. Good tight ends are hard to find, so I can’t imagine the Titans letting Smith walk, especially as he contributes in the running game too. Perhaps, they use the franchise tag on Smith, as the Chargers did in 2020 with Hunter Henry. I wish Smith received more consistent target volume, but I’m starting to accept that’s never going to happen on the Titans.
Texans
Summary
The Texans have looked a lot better since they fired incompetent head coach Bill O’Brien. They were 0-4 with O’Brien, and now they’re 3-3 under interim head coach Romeo Crennel including this 27-20 victory over the Patriots. Unfortunately, the Texans played this game without running back David Johnson, and receivers Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills suffered injuries in this game. So, they’re a bit banged up moving forward.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson had a solid fantasy day, as he completed 28/37 of his passes for 344 yards and two touchdowns. He also added six carries for 36 yards and a touchdown, adding to his stellar passing numbers. Watson should improve in 2021 as he gets some better weapons, although Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks aren’t bad receivers. I have Watson as a solid dynasty QB1 based on his strong history of play and his massive long-term deal. Nothing changed for him this week.
Running Backs
I think we can see why Duke Johnson never received a real workhorse role in the NFL, despite being the University of Miami’s all-time leading rusher. Johnson took 10 carries for 15 yards, looking awful on the ground. He did contribute three receptions for 20 yards on five targets, but he was a massive fantasy bust for the week. David Johnson will reclaim this backfield when he returns from his concussion, although I expect the Texans to improve here during the offseason. I’m not buying into either player long-term in dynasty leagues.
Receiving Weapons
Both Cooks and Fuller had solid games. Cooks caught four passes for 85 yards, while Fuller had six catches for 80 yards. I believe both players represent strong dynasty buys for the rest of this season, although Fuller is a free-agent after 2020. Considering that the Texans refused to trade Fuller to the Packers at the trade deadline, I expect them to retain Fuller, but you never know in the NFL.
While Cobb and Stills may have suffered injuries, neither player is relevant to the Texans’ future. They need to find a real third receiving option, whether that’s a slot receiver or a tight end. We did have a Keke Coutee sighting, as he caught a touchdown. But, I’ll need to see way more than one game from Coutee before considering him to have any dynasty value.
Speaking of tight ends, Jordan Akins had five receptions on six targets for 83 yards. If Akins can consolidate this role ahead of Darren Fells and Pharaoh Brown, he could be fantasy viable. Unfortunately, the Texans consistently create a tight end committee, making the position impossible to trust. I’ll keep an eye on Akins in TE-premium leagues, though, as any significant weapons in Watson’s offense could carry fantasy value.
Jaguars
Summary
Unlike the other teams, there’s little to say about the Jaguars. They lost a 27-3 blowout to the Steelers, and they barely competed in the game. Gardner Minshew and Laviska Shenault missed the game with injuries, although it’s unclear exactly how healthy they are. The Jaguars are now 1-9 and entirely looking toward next season.
Quarterback
Jake Luton was unwatchable in this game, completing 16/37 passes for 151 yards and four interceptions. He played one of the worst games I’ve ever seen, and I doubt he gets another start. Luton played okay in his first start, but he hasn’t done anything in the last two. I believe the Jaguars would turn to Mike Glennon for next week over Luton if Minshew can’t play. Otherwise, they will go back to Minshew as their starter.
However, none of this truly matters. The Jaguars are now 1-9, and they’re on course for the second overall pick. The Jets are 0-10, but no other team is even 2-8, with the Bengals third-worst at 2-7-1. Therefore, the Jaguars will likely have a top-two pick, and they will select either Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft. All of their quarterbacks will then become NFL backups, which is where they belong.
Running Backs
Only James Robinson received carries in this game, with 17 carries for 73 yards. Robinson also had two receptions for 21 yards. At this point, I believe that Robinson will be the Jaguars’ starting running back in 2021, although I expect them to bring in someone else to take some touches. Robinson has seen 17.2 carries/game, on pace for 275 carries, which isn’t sustainable. But, Robinson is now worth at least a 2021 first-round rookie pick in dynasty leagues, probably more.
Receiving Weapons
Many players caught passes in this game, but we only care about D.J. Chark. Chark caught four of eight targets for 41 yards, although he suffered with Luton at quarterback. Between Luton and Minshew, we can’t trust Chark in 2020. However, if the Jaguars have Lawrence or Fields in 2021, Chark would rise in dynasty value. He’s an excellent target for rebuilding rosters, especially considering that he’s only 24 years old.
Laviska Shenault is also a good buy for the same reasons, even though he missed this game with an injury. Shenault hasn’t done much in 2020, but he has seen playing time. I think he could break out next season, and he has a far lower price. I’d love to add Shenault to any rebuilding roster.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Divisional Nuggets Articles: NFC East (Week 2), AFC North (Week 3), AFC South (Week 4), NFC West (Week 5), NFC East (Week 6), AFC North (Week 7), AFC South (Week 8), NFC West (Week 9), NFC East (Week 10), AFC North (Week 11)
