The Texas Longhorns have had an elite offense all season long, as confirmed by their 12-1 record, playoff bid, and 36.2 points per game. Much of this success can be attributed to their two junior wide receivers, Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. Both players have lofty expectations waiting for them at the NFL level, but which player will end up becoming the better fantasy asset? Let’s discuss some numbers and help answer that question for you.
High School
According to ESPN, Xavier Worthy was a 4-star recruit, ranked as the 8th-best wide receiver in his class. He was listed as a 4-star recruit on 247 Sports as well, ranked as the WR13 overall.
In comparison, Adonai Mitchell (also in the class of 2021) was ranked slightly lower coming out of high school. On ESPN, Mitchell was a 3-star recruit and the WR86 in his class, and on 247 Sports, he was rated a 3-star recruit and the WR60.
Worthy had his senior football season canceled due to COVID-19 but was already a well-sought-after prospect by his junior year. He finished with 55 receptions for 992 yards and 16 touchdowns as a junior, earning him a selection to the 2021 All-American Bowl. Unsurprisingly, Worthy was also a track star in high school, running a blazing 10.55 100-yard dash as a sophomore for Central East in Fresno, CA.
Mitchell initially attended Ridge Point High School in Missouri City, Texas, a large 6A program with plenty of competition. Adonai had only played quarterback until that point but transitioned to wide receiver due to the plethora of quarterback talent Ridge Point already had. After his sophomore season, Mitchell began getting looks from Power 5 programs and moved to Antioch, Tennessee, playing for Cane Ridge High School for his final two seasons. Mitchell was a jack of all trades at Cane Ridge, ending his last two seasons with 244 passing yards, 373 rushing yards, 795 receiving yards, and 18 total touchdowns. He signed with Georgia in July 2020 and was part of their national championship teams the past two seasons.
College Production
2023 averages, according to Fantrax
Xavier Worthy has had a more productive junior campaign and a more illustrious college career overall. Worthy has accumulated 195 receptions through three seasons at Texas for 2,710 yards and 26 touchdowns. He broke out as a freshman with 62 receptions, 981 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He finished with an impressive 102 targets as a freshman, which was good for a 29.6% target share. This kind of production as a freshman in the Power 5 is almost unheard of. Worthy more than doubled the next-highest reception and receiving yard total at Texas in 2021, establishing himself as the clear Alpha WR1 in this offense at 18 years old. This early age breakout is typically a great indicator of future NFL success.
Adonai Mitchell spent his first two years in Athens, Georgia, under HC Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. After a fairly promising freshman season, compiling 29 receptions, 426 yards, and four touchdowns on a national championship roster, Mitchell had a disappointing Year 2, only appearing in six contests all year. A lingering high ankle sprain kept Mitchell off the field for much of the 2022 season, where he saw just nine total receptions for 134 yards and three touchdowns. Following Georgia’s second consecutive national championship win, Adonai entered the transfer portal and chose to play for the Texas Longhorns. As a junior, he’s had his official breakout season, amassing over 800 receiving yards thus far, and he finds himself tied for 14th in the country in receiving touchdowns with ten.
Mitchell may have one to two more games to improve his season totals this year, as Texas is in the College Football Playoffs, and they may be taking the field without Worthy. There haven’t been many updates this past week, but Xavier Worthy suffered an ankle injury in the Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma and was seen on the sidelines with a boot and crutches late in the game. X-rays came back negative, however, so this should have no negative effect on Worthy’s NFL stock.
NFL Draft Projections
According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, Adonai Mitchell is projected to go in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, 32nd overall. The consensus team listed to draft Mitchell is the Kansas City Chiefs. In comparison, Xavier Worthy is projected to go in the second round, 35th overall, with the consensus team being the New England Patriots. So, despite Worthy’s superior college resume, this site’s mock drafts predict Mitchell will go a few spots ahead of Worthy this coming April (assuming both declare).
NFL Draft Buzz has a different assessment of things, listing Worthy as the WR7 in this 2024 draft class while Mitchell is down at WR15. They have Worthy projected as a late first-round pick and Mitchell as a 3rd round selection.
According to NFL Draft Buzz, Xavier Worthy’s biggest strengths are his speed, burst, route running ability, and fluidity. He has reliable hands and can make the difficult catches in traffic look easy. His weaknesses include his thin frame (6’1″ and 172 lbs on Texas’s website) and his plateau in production after a legendary freshman season. There are also concerns about his ability to sit down against zone coverages and get himself open.
NFL Draft Buzz says Mitchell has surprising quickness off the line of scrimmage. He’s great in the open field and in creating yards after the catch and can use his size and strength to high-point passes over smaller defenders. Mitchell has a long wingspan, making his 6’4″ height even more challenging to defend. He is not the route runner that Worthy is and has trouble creating separation at times, as he doesn’t have that breakaway speed that Worthy does. And while Mitchell has the height that should give him an advantage at the next level, he’s just 196 lbs, so he could benefit from adding lean mass to his frame.
Devy/Dynasty Value
In most 2024 Superflex rookie mocks I’ve seen, Worthy is consistently listed as a late first/early second-round pick, while Mitchell is a later second-round pick. However, if Mitchell gets Round 1 draft capital and a favorable landing spot, he could certainly be pushed into the early second-round conversation. If Mitchell did end up in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, he would have a clear path to being the WR1 there. That said, Worthy has a higher floor and higher ceiling, given his early breakout season, as well as his superior speed and athleticism. We’ve seen smaller-framed WRs excel in the NFL, especially in recent years, so I’m not too worried about that part of Worthy’s profile. If his college measurements are accurate, he’s already an inch taller and a couple of pounds heavier than DeVonta Smith.
Both these prospects have a bright future ahead of them and could be top-24 fantasy WRs for years to come, but I prefer Worthy over Mitchell as of now. He’s as dynamic a receiver as anyone in this class and has demonstrated his ability to demand targets and make an immediate impact.
One last thing to note is the impact the NIL has made on college players’ decisions to declare for the NFL early. NIL deals can be lucrative and even compete with some rookie NFL contracts, making the decision more complicated for these young men. There’s a real chance Worthy and Mitchell will elect to stay for their senior season, considering this and the fact that QB Quinn Ewers is also returning. Keep tabs on these elite prospects in your Devy leagues, as their decisions will significantly impact your roster value.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
