I speak for everyone when I say, it took long enough. This was a move that felt inevitable at one point and then doubtful at another but eventually, the deal was done. I must give credit to the Packers’ front office for the stones it took to hold fast waiting for a deal that had to happen. Their ability to hold got them the best possible return they were ever going to get for Rodgers. The Jets needed that deal to go through as well, given their roster is ready to compete with only Zach Wilson in the quarterback room prior to the trade. Alas, we are not here to pour praise upon Brian Gutekunst (Packers GM), we are here to understand the impact this move has on all of our Dynasty assets.
The first asset to consider here is the man himself, Aaron “bleeping” Rodgers. Despite me not being the biggest fan of ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, he is right on one thing. Aaron Rodgers is a baaaaaad man. His ADP and ranking do not suggest that though. Currently QB26 in Sleeper ADP and ranked QB24 here at DFF. In theory, he should be a value in trades but name value alone makes it a tougher trade to make than it should normally be. This move to the Jets shouldn’t impact his ability to produce fantasy points in a meaningful way. While he does get a better group of pass catchers with the Jets, his offensive line is probably a bit worse unless Mekhi Becton can stay healthy and live up to his potential. Trading for Rodgers might be tough but as we head into summer startups, I love the value of QB26 for win-now builds. 365 days ago he was coming off winning the MVP in back-to-back seasons. Flash forward to today and his Packers were eliminated from the playoffs by the division rival Detriot Lions in his final game in green and yellow. The question is, does he still have some vintage Rodgers magic left in the tank? At QB26, I think it is worth the risk.
I now get to talk about my favorite player affected by the move and probably the player affected the most on the Jets organization — Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson. Anyone who has read my writing or follows me on Twitter knows I have been on the Garrett Wilson bandwagon since he came out of Ohio State. Aaron Rodgers’s favorite target for years was always Davante Adams in part because of his masterful route-running skills. Wilson has some shake to his route running as well. The big question with QBs like Rodgers or Brady when you have young WRs is whether will they trust them. Early last season in Green Bay, you could sense the tension between Rodgers and his rookie WRs they had. Towards the later part of the year though we began to see Christian Watson flourish as more trust was placed in him. Garrett Wilson has already been an impact player on Sundays with much worse quarterback play and is the only first-round pick at WR Rodgers has ever played with. As far as buying Wilson is concerned, you may have waited too late. Dynasty managers with Wilson on their team will be asking for firstborns to acquire him at this point. If a trade is involving Garrett Wilson at this point, it is likely a big-boy trade with massive assets on both sides. I am not saying that it isn’t worth it, I am just saying to get ready to be making a league-altering blockbuster deal.
The rest of the Jets pass catchers is where it gets interesting. Right now, people are placing Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman Jr. as the starters alongside Garrett Wilson. I cannot come up with how people think that Hardman will start over Corey Davis. I know Corey Davis has never quite lived up to the high draft capital he received from the Titans but Mecole Hardman just spent the first four years of his career being unstartable in fantasy football despite being on the field with Patrick Mahomes. If he is part of the starting rotation it is just to be the Damiere Byrd role and just run far and fast to bring safeties out of the picture. He will be spending his Sunday afternoons running wind sprints. Corey Davis and Allen Lazard are where I think the truest upside exists. Lazard has already built a rapport with Rodgers as a red zone threat with his size and frame. Corey Davis is a veteran WR that knows how to get open and move the sticks. The kind of guy a veteran quarterback loves to have around. Both Lazard and Davis are cheap enough to be throw-ins on larger trades or send someone their handcuff RB for either. If you haven’t done your rookie draft yet you could also move off of a late 2nd or 3rd round pick to acquire them if a league mate likes a player on the clock. Great move for a contender especially.
I’ll keep it shorter with the tight ends, while Conklin had some games here and there, it was not consistent enough to be happy with him as your starter and Rodgers has not traditionally given the tight end a bunch of targets. Robert Tonyan had a stretch when they had some WR trouble but I would hope I have better options at tight end than any of the ones on the Jets roster. Jeremy Ruckert is an interesting stash if he is still on your taxi squad.
The running back discussion is worth having. While I do expect a regression with Breece Hall on his first season back from an ACL injury, he may also have increased touchdown opportunity with the offense likely performing better with Rodgers at the helm. The competition for the backup role and the third down role will be interesting. I like grabbing Michael Carter or Zonovan Knight if they fall to waivers in your more shallow leagues or picking Israel Abanikanda up late in your rookie draft.
I find myself truly intrigued to watch the Jets play football in the fall this season. They were mostly getting by on a run game and some good defense last year but maybe adding a Hall of Fame quarterback is just what they need to get over the Bills and Dolphins in the division. While the upside is easy to see, we had similar conversations involving Russell Wilson last offseason going to my beloved Denver Broncos. Unlike fantasy football, real football is not as simple as just adding a player to a team and everything working perfectly.
Thanks so much for reading, if you want to discuss more reach out to me on Twitter, I am @DougHarrelson on there. Thanks also for your membership to DFF! For those signed up for an annual membership, you can always reach the rest of the DFF team and me on our Discord server! Exclusively for annual memberships only. Sign up today!
