A Look Back: My 2019 Streaming QBs

In 2019, I wrote a weekly column for @DFF_Redraft giving QB, TE, and D/ST streamers each week of the fantasy season. To qualify as a potential streamer, a player needed to be 40% owned or less, according to ESPN’s ownership percentage data. Scroll to the end of this story for links to each QB article if you’d like to take a look back at my past work.

In this three-piece series, I’m going to look back at how I did with predicting each category of streamer, starting with quarterbacks. The first streamer is the player I gave in my article as my first recommended streamer, and the second is the player I listed second. Then, the weekly finish tabs show where that QB finished on the week in four-point touchdown scoring. The average column displays the average of the two players each week. Here’s the full table:

Overall Performance

As a whole, I think I performed pretty well for the season. Considering that I limited the options to those that were 40% owned or less, I often had to choose between unpalatable quarterbacks or to go with low ceiling options. My goal was to stream a QB1 each week, and I just missed that cutoff, finishing with an average of QB12.94, even with my first streamer. However, considering that I set myself a challenging goal, I’m overall pretty happy with how I did. 

While I was able to find at least one option I was happy with every week, the second option was often someone that I would never have wanted to play in any 1QB format. For example, in Weeks 8 and 12, I recommended using Mason Rudolph and Jeff Driskel, two horrific streaming options. I’m more impressed by the performance of my second-choice streamer than my first. I expected the difference between the two to be far more significant.

Interesting Trends

First, I expected that many of my streamers would have been coming off a bye week. In my mind, quarterbacks would get cut from fantasy rosters when they go on a bye week, as fantasy owners do not want to hold two quarterbacks at once. In 2019, the NFL had bye weeks in Weeks 4-12. Therefore, the relevant weeks to examine are Weeks 5-13. 

However, the first and only time I picked a streamer coming off a bye week was Mason Rudolph in Week 8 following the Steelers’ Week 7 bye. I may have overestimated how often fantasy players are making transactions. I guess that most owners are holding onto quarterbacks through bye weeks and are not continually dropping them to waivers. Maybe I need to remember that not every fantasy owner is as hyperactive as I am!

Also, another significant trend is that there seems to be a lengthy delay from when a quarterback starts to have fantasy success to when fantasy owners trust them in their lineups. Ryan Tannehill had performed as a solid fantasy quarterback from Week 7 to Week 14. However, even in Week 15, he was somehow owned in less than 40% of leagues. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a similar journey. He was solid from Weeks 12-15 but was still eligible for Week 16’s streamer column in championship week. Even during fantasy playoffs, it seems like there are many leagues where owners are not active, and streamers are more widely available than they should be.

Lastly, let’s look at some of the quarterbacks that appeared in this column multiple times. Sam Darnold was one of my two streaming choices five times in six weeks from Week 9 to Week 14. During those weeks, he played a cupcake series of defenses. Even though Darnold didn’t pay off that well as a streamer, the fact that he was available demonstrates that fantasy owners are more likely to go with the better player instead of looking at the matchups. 

Finally, I want to vent at Jimmy Garoppolo a bit. I selected him as a streamer four times, all as my second choice. In those four weeks, he paid off once as the QB2 but finished as the QB24, 27, and 29 in the other three weeks. He burned me, and I’ll have to think twice before choosing him as a streamer in the future. His floor is clearly in the basement with how the 49ers value running the ball. 

Going Forward   

While I think that picking two featured quarterbacks under 40% owned was helpful, I believe that I should have focused more on the 40-60% owned range. Even though those quarterbacks were not available in all leagues, at least one of them would often be available in my leagues. Therefore, I rarely had to use the streamers I was recommending in my article, as a quarterback in that 40-60% range was often available as a superior option. 

Therefore, going forward, I will revise my article format to include a new section. I will add a third streamer between 40-60% as the “shallow league” option if such a player exists that week. Specifically, there were a few times, like Week 3 and Week 7, that I mentioned such a player at the top of my piece, but I think I should make it a regular part of my work. Additionally, while the QB13 is not bad, it isn’t ideal for a streamer. If there are better quarterbacks out there in a significant number of leagues, I need to make sure my readers can find those players. Looking back to improve my work going forward is what I want to do.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

2019 QB Streamer Archive: Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11, Week 12, Week 13, Week 14, Week 15, Week 16, Week 17