We’re back with Part 2 of our NFL Mock Draft. In Part 1, we covered the top ten picks of the first round. In Part 2, we’re covering picks 11-20. Just a reminder, these picks are who we think they’re going to take and the fantasy impact of each player. Without further ado, let’s kick it off with the New York Jets.
#11 New York Jets
Pick: CeeDee Lamb, WR
We’re back with Part 2 and immediately get some excitement with our first skill player of the mock. CeeDee Lamb goes to the Jets at pick 11. There was some consideration here between a wide receiver and an offensive tackle, but I have a feeling the Jets will be in play when the draft rolls around for Washington Redskins’ Trent Williams. The Jets have multiple day two picks, and Willams would shore up what is just a dreadful offensive line. A trade like this would free the Jets up for the second biggest hole on the team, offensive weapons.
Fantasy Impact
CeeDee Lamb is one of the most exciting prospects in this draft. He has a high-flying alpha mentality that he utilized to great success at Oklahoma. Through three seasons with the Sooners, he’s amassed 3,292 yards and 32 touchdowns on only 173 attempts. He has also shown that he has a flair for the spectacular, making a habit of catching passes in unique ways that show exactly why he’s so dangerous.
Lamb going to the Jets at #11 not only fills a need but it’s also one of the best receiving landing spots fantasy owners could hope for. The Jets lost Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas this offseason as both were unrestricted free agents that haven’t resigned or have joined a new team. Those two receivers combined for 154 total targets, which was 31% of the Jets targets from last season. That means Lamb should have an instant opportunity to slot in as fantasy relevant.
The tough part for any rookie receiver is their adaptation to the NFL system, though, mostly press coverage by the defense. There are examples of players previously who haven’t been slowed down in their rookie season, such as Calvin Ridley for the Atlanta Falcons or Terry Mclaurin for the Washington Redskins. I believe Ceedee will join them as having huge potential in year one. If this ultimately is where he ends up, he would be my WR1 out of this class.
#12 Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Henry Ruggs, WR
The Raiders have finally made the long-awaited move from Oakland to Las Vegas, and with their first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, I think they will want to make a splash. There are a lot of rumors that CeeDee Lamb is the Raiders’ top receiver on their big board, but close behind him is Henry Ruggs. Henry Ruggs is a John Gruden guy through and through. At Alabama, Ruggs was the leader in the wide receiver room. This was no ordinary wide receiver room. This room had a former first-round pick, Calvin Ridley, current first-round contender Jerry Jeudy, who is ranked by many as the top receiver in this class, and also potential future first-rounder Devonta Smith, who before he returned for his senior season with the Tide, was projected as another first-round receiver in the 2020 Draft. He has an alpha personality, which is exactly what Gruden wants and desperately needs.
Gruden tried to get that alpha personality in 2019 with a surprising trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers for Antonio Brown. It looked like it was going to work out perfectly until AB went insane and blew it up in Gruden’s face. Losing AB meant that Gruden also lost his alpha dog, leaving him with rookie Hunter Renfrow, introverted quiet guy Darren Waller, and perennial forgotten man Tyrell Williams. Also, Gruden has to play against elite speed twice a year already in Tyreek Hill with the Kansas City Chiefs. If anyone is going to respect a fast alpha in this class, it would be Gruden.
Fantasy Impact
Henry Ruggs slots in as a potential superstar for a team that has a lack of offensive weapons, his elite play speed will help him shed defenders at the NFL level, and he’s shown not to have massive concerns with injury in the past. These are all positives for a player that could be the next game-breaking weapon, but none of it will matter until the Raiders replace the biggest hindrance to the offense, Derek Carr.
Derek Carr is the starting quarterback for at least 2019, and he is going to limit any potential Ruggs can bring to the table. Last season Carr had an average depth of target of 6.6 yards/attempt. That ranked second lowest in the league of 39 eligible starters. For context, Carr had a total of 26 attempts last season in which he targeted someone further than 20 yards downfield. Marcus Mariota, who is now Carr’s backup and only played in seven games for the Tennessee Titans in 2019, had more attempts than Carr with 30.
Henry Ruggs has elite speed and will be the ultimate deep threat, but he’s not projected to be a possession receiver. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow have already shown a proficiency at eating up the close to the line of scrimmage targets Carr is so eager to throw, and with the rate at which he throws them, there aren’t many targets left over for Ruggs to utilize. There’s always the hope that the Raiders will move on from Carr in the future, which would help Ruggs to really shine. Until then however, Ruggs doesn’t even crack my top five in this amazing receiving class, despite his amazing opportunity.
#13 San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR
The 49ers made one of the bigger splash moves this offseason trading DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts for the 13th overall pick in the draft. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Niners didn’t pick at this spot, and if it were someone like the Cleveland Browns who trade for it, because they traded Odell Beckham Jr.. In a mock with no trades, I can’t predict that right now. What remains consistent, though, is that the only reason I think the 49ers don’t pick here is because they traded for a receiver, which leads to the easy speculation that this pick will be for a receiver.
With Lamb and Ruggs off the board here, it leaves potentially the top receiver in the class. While Lamb is known for his high flying spectacular catches and Ruggs is known for his elite speed, Jeudy is known for his route running. Some have speculated he may be one of the best route runners in college history with elite separation skills. One of the few things that is known to translate every single time from college to the NFL is the ability to separate. Pair him up with head coach and offensive guru Kyle Shanahan, and it’s a match made in fantasy heavy.
Fantasy Impact
This landing spot is one of the more polarizing of the draft. Jeudy is such an elite talent, and he lands with such an offensive mastermind in Shanahan that everything says he should be fantasy gold. That same offensive mastermind is also a bit of a risk to Jeudy’s fantasy value. Shanahan’s main goal is to put up a lot of points and, more importantly, win football games. This means he frequently likes to rotate the weekly game plan to feature different players to keep defenses on their toes.
The 49ers did add Deebo Samuel to their receiving core in 2019, and he showed he was an elite fantasy talent last season. They have one of the league’s top tight ends in George Kittle. They also have an elite run game, no matter who they put back there. This begs the question of how productive can Jeudy be in this offense?
I believe that Jeudy will not only be slotted in and utilized without hurting Deebo or Kittle’s fantasy values, but also be able to shine himself. It would be expecting a lot for him to be a WR1 in fantasy for the next few seasons. However, I think it’s reasonable to expect him to return WR2 value yearly as long as he can handle the NFL transition. The scariest thing about the 49ers offense is that it’s only getting better every year. Jeudy falls in as my WR3 of the rookies and belongs in the top 8 picks even in Superflex leagues.
#14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Andrew Thomas, OT
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an interesting draft ahead of them this year. They won the Tom Brady sweepstakes, and no matter how you feel about 43-year-old Tom Brady, the Bucs actually have very few needs. They have a loaded receiving corps with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, and Justin Watson. They clearly don’t need a quarterback for the time being with “Tompa Brady” handling those duties. Running back is a need but not a necessity with Ronald Jones being penciled in as the starter. They also have a pretty stout defense with some holes, but nothing critical.
The biggest hole the Bucs need to fill is the offensive line. There are even rumors that they’re interested in trading up for one of the top three guys. Lucky for them, they get one of the top Tackles in the draft. Andrew Thomas was the starting left tackle for Georgia. One of Thomas’ best traits he’s bringing to the NFL is his smooth transitions and quick feet. Thomas should translate instantly to a year one starter protecting possibly the greatest quarterback of all time.
Fantasy Impact
If you read Part 1 of our Mock Draft series, then you should know the fantasy impact shoring an offensive line leads to. Not only will Thomas be able to help protect Brady in Bruce Arians’ high flying offensive system, a system that relies on the quarterbacks holding the ball a bit longer to let things develop downfield, but he’s also going to help boost the run game.
Like I mentioned before, for now, Ronald Jones is the lead dog in the running game, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs drafted a running back higher in this draft for Jones to succeed. Still, he needs lanes to run through. Thomas will help in that regard as he helped Georgia open lanes all year for D’Andre Swift.
I’m always a fan of teams prioritizing offensive lineman in the draft. They are some of the more underappreciated offensive players, but they have some of the biggest impacts on fantasy points. The difference between a good and bad offensive line is visible every single year, so taking early tackles as long as the talent justifies it is never a bad thing. It also doesn’t hurt to ensure you have a top-five offensive line when your starting quarterback is 43 years old and is signed for two more seasons.
#15 Denver Broncos
Pick: C.J. Henderson, CB
Chris Harris, Jr. was pressed into service as an outside cornerback last year and didn’t like it. He expressed his happiness with the move back into slot duty for the Chargers, with whom he signed as an unrestricted free agent last month.
The Broncos will replace him with Chris Junior “CJ” Henderson, a player made to play the boundary at 6’1” tall with 4.39-sec 40-yard speed. He’ll pair with recent trade acquisition AJ Bouye to shore up a cornerback group riddled by injuries and inconsistency in 2019.
Fantasy Impact
Henderson is not an exciting fantasy option even in CB-required leagues, but his contribution to the back end should enable the Broncos’ potent pass rush to reach the quarterback. Von Miller, coming off a down year in the sack column, and Bradley Chubb, recovering from an ACL tear, are both exciting buy-lows in leagues that use big-play scoring or true positions.
#16 Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Kristian Fulton, CB
The Broncos sniped the Falcons with their selection of CJ Henderson. Kristian Fulton was the next highest-rated cornerback on their board. He doesn’t look quite as ready to step onto an NFL field, but must do so.
The Falcons surprisingly cut their long-time CB1 Desmond Trufant after an injury-shortened 2019. Fulton will likely pair with the underwhelming Isaiah Oliver on the outside. Solid rookie Kendall Sheffield returns to the slot role he manned in 2019.
The Falcons’ offense passed more often than any other NFL team in 2019 as a percentage of total offensive plays. A pass-heavy offense has been the norm for the team and their offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter for years. This tendency lengthens games and keeps the Falcons’ defense on the field for a disproportionate high number of snaps.
Fantasy Impact
Defensive snaps translate to more tackle opportunities. As a full-time player in Atlanta’s defense, Kristian Fulton will be a viable option as a matchup-based starter in CB-required leagues. He and the Falcons’ secondary will face WRs Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans twice each in 2020.
#17 Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Javon Kinlaw, DT
With their highest draft pick in several years, the Cowboys aim to address a need they’ve struggled with for just as long. Javon Kinlaw profiles as an impact three-technique defensive tackle who can generate interior pass-rush pressure.
Kinlaw steps into a platoon with veteran free-agent signee Gerald McCoy and should be able to build up his workload throughout the season, as his development would dictate. His pass rush needs refinement for the pro game, but his combination of size and athleticism ooze upside. These traits also enable him to step outside to 3-4 end in a package that new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will install to disguise edge rushers. Opportunities to set the edge will supplement Kinlaw’s tackle totals.
Fantasy Impact
Kinlaw probably won’t play enough snaps to justify a selection as a DT1 in tackle-required leagues. Still, he’s an intriguing second option who could emerge as a useful option late in 2020. Kinlaw’s upside and role make him the top rookie defensive tackle available to dynasty leaguers.
Kinlaw’s contribution to the Cowboys’ pass rush, together with a change in defensive scheme should help Demarcus Lawrence rebound in 2020. Lawrence played well in 2019 but had a low sack total. Offensive lines focused on him. Among Lawrence’s teammates, only Robert Quinn was able to capitalize.
#18 Miami Dolphins
Pick: K’Lavon Chaisson, LB
In 2019, the Dolphins collected five fewer quarterback sacks than any other team in the league. The team cycled through waiver-wire adds and street free agents looking for answers.
This spring, the Dolphins signed unrestricted free agent Kyle Van Noy to play the strong-side edge. Van Noy’s bookend on the weakside will be K’Lavon Chaisson.
In his short college career, Chaisson demonstrated tremendous upside with elite physical traits. He also flashed some coverage ability, which will enable him to get on the field and stay there early in his career.
He will need additional size and skill refinement to set the edge in the NFL. The Dolphins value versatility in their defenders to disguise pass rushers and edge setters. The team has added several free agents to thin groups of linebackers and edge defenders. Newly found depth will enable the Dolphins to mix and match throughout 2020 in search of the most effective combinations. Despite the rotation, Chaisson could show enough in pass rush situations that his coaches simply can’t bench him.
Fantasy Impact
K’Lavon Chaisson should be designated as an outside linebacker by fantasy football platforms. That will limit his value outside of big-play-scoring and true-position formats. If he is afforded a ‘DE’ tag, then he should be the second rookie defensive lineman off the board in all formats.
Chaisson is a boom/bust prospect for seasonal leagues in 2020. The player and the team’s pass rush look good on paper, but the real test will come on the field. The Dolphins’ pass rush could improve significantly and still not reach the top half of the league in performance. Chaisson fits into seasonal fantasy rosters as a third edge option capable of relieving or replacing an underwhelming starter down the stretch.
#19 Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Kenneth Murray, LB
Kenneth Murray joins a linebacking corps featuring free-agent signees Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski, providing the Raiders an embarrassment of riches at the position. In 2019, the Raiders’ LB room was just an embarrassment headlined by Vontaze Burfict.
No Raider linebacker played 100% of snaps before Burfict was ejected and indefinitely suspended for a dirty hit in Week 4. Burfict was closest, at 90%. Tahir Whitehead and Nicholas Morrow joined Burfict in base defense as stack linebackers. Like most NFL teams, the Raiders played fewer snaps in base than nickel defense. Morrow was most often but not always the linebacker to sub out for a fifth defensive back.
Given the team’s investment in Littleton, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be the captain of the defense. Kwiatkoski and Murray will compete for the remaining snaps. Murray will first need to show improved discipline in run defense, a strength of Kwiatkoski’s game. The Raiders’ selection of Murray in the first round suggests they believe he can overcome this limitation. The linebacker, then, who proves himself in pass coverage, will earn the larger role.
Fantasy Impact
A rookie linebacker selected in the first round of the NFL Draft is a commodity that excites fantasy gamers. Kenneth Murray’s path to playing time and competition for tackles, however, should temper enthusiasm.
He’s worth a look as a LB3 in seasonal leagues, but he’ll likely be among the first off the board within that tier. Boring names with higher floors should be available a few rounds later in drafts.
Linebackers selected in rookie drafts of dynasty leagues are typically expected to contribute in Year 1. A small percentage of leagues are deep enough to justify drafting and stashing a linebacker. The 2020 draft should yield enough options that the sharp move will be to let Murray go off the board and aim for a Day 2 selection at the position.
#20 Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Antoine Winfield Jr., S
The Jaguars’ lack of depth at the safety position was exposed late in the 2019 season when starting strong safety Ronnie Harrison suffered a concussion. His running mate, former undrafted free agent Jarrod Wilson will see competition for the starting job in the person of Antoine Winfield Jr.
Regardless of who starts, both players should see significant roles in 2020. Winfield is sound in all areas of safety play and will help shore up a secondary reeling since the trade of Jalen Ramsey in the middle of last season.
Fantasy Impact
A strong fantasy asset at the safety position is a player who piles up tackles in the box and wins as a pass rusher blitzing from the slot. While Winfield isn’t a liability in either department, he isn’t likely to earn the large majority of these opportunities with Ronnie Harrison next to him.
Winfield is a watch-list candidate in seasonal leagues. He can be ignored in dynasty rookie drafts, where his first-round status will get him over-drafted. The sharp fantasy gamer will take shots at linebacker when Winfield goes off the board. Patient gamers who wait until late in the draft for a Day 2 rookie safety in a plum situation.
This wraps up Part 2 of our NFL Mock Draft Series. The finale of this series is coming soon. Find us on Twitter @DFF_Calvin and @DynastyTripp. Hit us up with any thoughts or comments, and until next time good luck in your leagues
