In part one of this article, I chose five players from the top 50 in ADP that I considered to be busts in 2019. In part two, I will select five players from ADP between 51-150.
When choosing my busts, I will try to avoid players that missed a few games but were otherwise successful when they played, so you haven’t and won’t see Saquon Barkley or Alvin Kamara type players on the list. Injuries are hard to predict, so it’s better to look at guys who flopped even when they were on the field.
Similar to the values section, the individual players are important, but general trends and strategy advice will also be included below. As in part one, Yahoo’s final half PPR ADP is the source for the below ADP numbers.
Baker Mayfield: ADP 50.6, QB4, finished as QB19.
The preseason hype surrounding Mayfield was historic, with some people suggesting he would finish as the QB1 overall. With Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, and eventually Kareem Hunt, the Browns’ offense was expected to be among the league leaders in 2019. While Chubb and Landry had successful seasons, Mayfield was a complete bust as a fantasy quarterback. He only threw 22 passing touchdowns compared to 21 interceptions and completed just 59.4% of his passes. He added three rushing touchdowns, which helped him a bit, but it was still not enough.
Considering that Mayfield finished as the QB19 while playing all 16 games, his real performance was even worse. Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, and Matthew Stafford all finished higher than Mayfield in fantasy points per game even though they were lower in total fantasy points. Therefore, Mayfield was barely even a QB2 in 2019. While Mayfield’s struggles were the most extreme example, none of the other top drafted quarterbacks lived up to their draft prices, including Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
Generally, drafting a quarterback early in fantasy drafts is a poor strategy, unless it’s a Superflex or 2QB league, and this season was no exception. As for Mayfield in 2020, I do expect a rebound from the Browns’ offense. They fired incompetent head coach Freddie Kitchens and should install a better head coach. They will also have Njoku back from injury, and both Landry and Beckham should heal from chronic injuries that plagued them for the entire season. While Mayfield will not be drafted near the top of 2020 fantasy drafts, he could be an excellent late-round value at the quarterback position. His upside is still there, and if everything comes together, he could finish as a strong QB1 in 2020.
O.J. Howard: ADP 52.1, TE4, finished as TE29
O.J. Howard was an unmitigated disaster in 2019. He was expected to take a massive step forward and join the top tiers of tight ends. Instead, he regressed and ended up in Bruce Arians’ doghouse. Despite playing in 14 of 16 games, Howard only managed 34 receptions on 53 targets for 459 yards and one touchdown.
In contrast, in 2018, Howard put up the same 34 receptions on just 48 targets for 565 yards and five touchdowns in only 10 games. Howard was mostly completely unusable in 2019 as Cameron Brate stole some of his snaps and targets, finishing with almost identical target and reception numbers to Howard. If Howard remains in Tampa Bay, I will be completely hands-off in 2020, but I expect that not to be the case.
There have been rumblings of a Howard trade since midseason, and I can’t imagine that Howard is happy with his limited role in Tampa’s offense. The Patriots would be an ideal landing spot for Howard, but he could improve almost any team without a top-tier tight end. I don’t believe that Howard has simply forgotten how to play football, so if he moves elsewhere, he could be an excellent late-round flier at the tight end position in 2020.
Bears D/ST: ADP 65.0, D/ST 1, finished as D/ST20
I think the main lesson here has nothing to do with the Bears D/ST. Often, there is a consensus #1 D/ST unit in drafts that goes relatively early. In 2017, the #1 D/ST drafted was the Broncos, and they finished as D/ST18. Then in 2018, it was the Jaguars as the #1 drafted D/ST, and they finished as D/ST15. Therefore, spending a sixth-round pick on a D/ST is wholly irresponsible and is always going to be a poor strategy. Even ignoring the final D/ST finish, D/ST is the easiest fantasy position to stream. Luckily for those who want to do that, I wrote a weekly streamers column in 2019, and I plan to return to writing that column in 2020. Focus on the other positions in fantasy drafts, grab a D/ST with your final pick, and read my column throughout the year.
Vance McDonald: ADP 82.0, TE8, finished as TE32.
Unlike O.J. Howard, I don’t think anybody expected McDonald to be a top-3 tight end or to take a significant step forward into a higher tier of tight end. However, the Steelers’ offense was incredibly hyped going into the season, and McDonald was considered a cheap way to get a piece of that offense. He disappointed, recording just 38 receptions on 55 targets for 272 yards and three receiving touchdowns. Even though he went through a few injuries in 2019, McDonald still played in 14 of 16 games and exceeded 75% of snaps in nine of the 14 games he played. So despite having a full-time role for a tight end, he still pretty much did nothing. While some of the blame has to go to the combination of the abysmal quarterback play of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges. At least part of the responsibility has to fall on McDonald.
Looking forward to 2020, McDonald will turn 30 in June, so his best days are likely behind him. On top of that, the Steelers can save almost $6 million by releasing McDonald before the 2020 season. Based on those two things, I expect that McDonald will be entirely irrelevant for fantasy players and possibly even the NFL in 2020 and that this piece will be the last I ever write about him.
Dante Pettis: ADP 117.1, WR42, finished as WR131.
While this ADP of 117.1 seems low, it doesn’t illustrate the full fall from grace that Pettis endured during the 2019 draft season and continued during the 2019 season itself. In May or June, many analysts were talking up Pettis as a potential WR2 based on his strong finish to 2018. In his final six games of 2019, he had five or more targets in each game and totaled 24 receptions for 371 yards and four touchdowns. Then, during the 2019 offseason, the 49ers only brought in rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd to compete with Pettis for the number one wide receiver role and secondary target after star tight end George Kittle.
Pettis was expected to take a step forward in 2019 and become a key contributor to the 49ers’ offense. However, that not only didn’t happen, but the exact opposite occurred. Pettis managed to participate in just 11 games, was a healthy scratch for others, and totaled just 11 receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns in 2019. Instead of Pettis, Samuel, and trade acquisition Emmanuel Sanders dominated the wide receiver snaps and production for the 49ers, with both having successful stretches.
I’m not sure what Pettis did to the 49ers’ coaching staff or management, but he is clearly in the doghouse right now. He showed too much talent in 2018 to simply be washed out of the league, but I’m not sure that the 49ers will give him another chance. I can’t even imagine drafting Pettis in any 2020 redraft format no matter what, but he’s a nice dynasty buy-low in case he goes to a new destination. This situation has been and still is extremely puzzling, and it’s probably one of the storylines of the 2019 fantasy season that still confounds me the most to this day.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I’d love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out anytime! I’ve been taking fantasy questions lately and trying to help out with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
