The NFL Draft is full of hope and optimism as all 32 fan bases get a peek at what the future of their franchise could look like. Unfortunately, the keyword in that last sentence was optimism. As a fan of a franchise, you have no choice but to be optimistic because there is no such thing as a sure thing. There has never been a complete guarantee, only prospects that are closer to one than others.
Get familiar with 2021’s closest sure thing. Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver prospect we’ve seen since Julio Jones. No really, Julio Jones. Chase checks all the boxes we look for in wide receiver prospects and then some. Let’s first look at his draft capital. Draft capital is a great indication of what an NFL team thinks of a prospect and just how much they like (or don’t like) him. The Bengals made Chase the fifth overall selection on April 29th. What other receivers have been drafted with such elite draft capital? (All Data is from 2010-2021)
Chase joins Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, Justin Blackmon, and Jaylen Waddle as the only receivers to be drafted with top six picks since 2010. This alone is an impressive company to keep and just one of many boxes that Chase puts an elite stamp on.
Ja’Marr Chase is an athletic freak with an alpha profile (>5’11”, >195 lbs, >26 BMI) and a relative athletic score (https://relativeathleticscores.com/) of 9.81. Just how impressive is a RAS of 9.81? It is the second-highest among receivers in this class and that is only if you consider the future tight end Jacob Harris of the Los Angeles Rams a wide receiver. So, what other first-round alpha receivers have put up a RAS score of at least 9?
Pretty impressive groupings so far for Chase and we haven’t yet accounted for the most important metrics when it comes to projecting college receivers, their production profile. Chase’s production profile is impressive, to say the least, posting a 32.30% weighted dominator at the age of 19, in the toughest conference, alongside Justin Jefferson. This gives Ja’Marr Chase a breakout age of 19.50. What other first-round receivers broke out before the age of 20?
This represents another solid grouping of receivers that Chase is a part of, and another box Chase checks off with an elite signature.
Let’s review all the boxes that Chase checks and how well he covers them to get one final grouping and see exactly what level of prospect Ja’Marr Chase really is. Draft capital is covered as the fifth overall selection. Size is covered as he achieves an alpha profile, which in this class is an absolute premium because it is filled with 73.3% of betas being drafted in the first two days of the draft. That’s the highest percentage of betas I’ve ever recorded by a 17.7% margin. Athleticism is covered impressively with an exceptional relative athleticism score. Chase was an early declare so consider that box checked. Finally, Chase broke out in his sophomore season before turning 20 years old. Who else checks ALL these boxes?
Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant put up 16.9, 15.7, and 11.4 PPR per game in their first season respectively. That is an absolute stacked grouping that Chase is in and shows the level of prospect we’re looking at. The best part about this? He only costs a high rookie pick. Sure, that seems like a fortune right now but in fantasy football, you should always be looking at initial cost versus future cost and Ja’Marr Chase’s outlook shows us that his future cost is going to be monumental in as little as a year from now.
Put your dynasty team needs aside, grab Ja’Marr Chase.
Until the next article, follow me on Twitter @dynasty_im!
