During the second quarter of the Giants’ Week 2 loss to the Chicago Bears, superstar running back Saquon Barkley needed to be carted off the field. Later an MRI confirmed that Barkley suffered a season-ending torn ACL. The already suspect Giants offense has a bleak outlook for the remainder of their 2020 season.
Short Term Impact
Losing Barkley leaves the Giants with Dion Lewis, Wayne Gallman, and Elijah Penny in their running back room. They do not have a running back on their 10-man practice squad so as expected they filled the roster spot with the veteran back Devonta Freeman. As a reminder, the Giants’ starting left tackle Nate Solder had opt-ed out of the 2020 season, leaving their offensive line lacking starting-caliber players across the board. Because of this, Giants’ running backs are averaging only 1.8 yards per attempt on the season. As a team, the Giants are averaging just over 50 yards rushing per game.
In Barkley’s absence, Dion Lewis was able to find the end zone, but there were no other positive takeaways from the Giants’ young 2020 season performance. Along with Barkley the Giants will be without Sterling Shepard for an extended period as he deals with turf toe. This leaves only Evan Engram, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton as offensive threats for second-year quarterback Daniel Jones. Expect the Giants to be trailing early and often in games and from a fantasy perspective, these four players may get the benefit of producing during garbage time.
As a replacement, Dion Lewis handled all 14 running back touches against the Bears. The Giants’ running back position has averaged 15 rushing attempts and seven targets per game, so in terms of opportunity whoever wins the starting job is worth rostering in all formats. However, we do not know who will be the starter at this point, though we would expect that Freeman would get the first crack at it. Based on efficiency it is going to be a game of Russian-roulette trying to guess the games in which you can count on top 24 running back fantasy finishes from Freeman or Lewis.
Long Term Impact
Saquon Barkley is not the first high-profile running back to suffer a season-ending torn ACL, and likely won’t be the last. An ACL injury used to be a career-ending injury, but thanks to modern science players now can be expected to return to the gridiron within a six to nine-month period after the injury is sustained. For Saquon Barkley, this gives him eleven months to rehab before the 2021 preseason games would be played. However, if there are complications such as a confirmed torn meniscus as well that would push the surgery date back and extend the rehab time. In this situation, we would expect Saquon to miss preseason activity, but be ready for the start of the regular season.
A study from 2002 on running backs and wide receivers who suffered an ACL tear, confirms that 93% of the 33 player subset was able to make a return to the sport in approximately 55 weeks. However, the players who did return from an ACL tear experienced a 34% decrease in production. Many of the players who experience an ACL tear were beyond their peak age season, so a decrease in production is expected, however, there are a few instances of players who we would group into a superhuman subset. These players include Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Jamal Lewis, and Edgerrin James. These players were between the ages of 21 and 23, with Peterson being the exception at 26, and these players returned to play at an extremely high level.
Saquon Barkley is physically built like the players in the superhuman subset, and while he will not be expected to return in only five months as Peterson did, he has unique physical abilities that even the most elite athletes cannot replicate. I expect Barkley to return to full health and be able to perform at the same level that he showed in his rookie season. The only hesitation that is worth noting is the increased probability of re-tearing his right knee, along with the risk of a contralateral tear in his left knee.
This injury offers a rare contrarian buying period, which I would advise for teams that are amidst the process of a rebuild. I do not see any hit to Barkley’s long-term value for those who can sustain the short-term inability for him to produce fantasy points for the rest of the 2020 season. He may offer a significant upside in redraft if others are fading him early in round one due to the injury. Players currently rostering Barkley should be advised to hold as he will only be 24 years old entering next season. The only long-term negative of Saquon Barkley is that he will be stuck within the Giants’ anemic offense for at least the next couple of years as he is not an unrestricted free agent until the 2023 NFL Season.
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