Picking from the 1.02 spot in redraft is great because you are guaranteed a top tier, workhorse running back. According to Scott Barrett via a Rotoviz tool, Christian McCaffrey teams in 2019 won 37% of the best ball leagues. Combining McCaffrey (the RB1) with Lamar Jackson (the QB1) resulted in winning 67% of these best ball leagues.
Round 1-5: The Core
As expected, McCaffrey was the first overall selection, leaving me facing down the barrel of the next best dual-threat running back in Saquon Barkley. Barkley surpassed 1,000-yards rushing in 2019 despite missing time and is the most talented pass-catcher on the roster.
By the time the 2.11 pick came around 16 running backs and 6 wide receivers had been selected. Choosing between Jonathan Taylor, Allen Robinson, and Travis Kelce at the top of their respective positions, I decided that Kelce offered the best value over a replacement player at his position. At the 3.02 turn, with Kittle having been selected, it was far too tantalizing to pass up the opportunity to stack Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. Referencing the above tweet from Scott Barrett, the plan was to go all on stacking the RB1, TE1, and QB1 and hope for the best when it comes to depth.
The 4.11 pick rolled around and at this point, 21 wide receivers had been selected. It was time to address the position before it became too late. The pick was Cooper Kupp due to the concerns I have with Keenan Allen and Courtland Sutton’s quarterback play. Kupp offers WR2 floor with the upside that he showed in 2019, with 134 targets to post over 1,000-yards and 10 TDs. Luckily, only six running backs had been selected since my decision to reach a bit on Mahomes. While deciding between low volume starters and high upside backup running backs, I decided to take a chance on Kareem Hunt who has been incredibly efficient even when facing low volume behind Nick Chubb.
Round 6-10: The Young Upside Play
With my team shaking up decently in the starting positions with Mahomes, Barkley, Hunt, Cupp, and Kelce it was a dire need to address my lack of depth at the round 6/7 turn. Both running back and wide receiver have had all of the top 24 options selected at this point. So, it was time to start playing some game theory. Seeing that Willie had selected Mark Ingram with his last pick, I decided to steal J.K. Dobbins from him. Dobbins’ upside in the Ravens passing attack is undeniable, along with being the highest-drafted running back for the franchise since Ray Rice. Dobbins is already getting talked up as having an immediate impact alongside Mark Ingram rather than behind him.
On the other side of the turn, I went with Marvin Jones, who should see similar target volume to Kenny Golladay. Especially if the T.J. Hockenson injury lingers into the season.
At this point in time, I’m ready to start swinging for the fences on upside players. In round eight, the pick was Antonio Gibson. I was happy to get a potential featured back for ‘Football Team’. He was extremely efficient at Memphis and is a rare athlete being over 220 lbs and running a sub-4.4-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine.
In the ninth round, I selected Jalen Reagor. He will miss the start of the season but has the potential and draft capital to work his way into Carson Wentz’s WR1. It is fun to note that Odell Beckham had a similar start to his rookie season and was a league winner.
I stuck with the rookies in round 10 as I selected AJ Dillon. He will likely be the Green Bay goal line back after Aaron Jones lead the league with 16 rushing touchdowns in 2019. A Jones injury would open the door for Dillon as the starter in Green Bay. In this role, Dillon would be an RB2.
Round 11-14: The Rum Drinks Kick in
In round 11, I hedged against a Saquon injury and added a receiver who will slot into my third starting receiver role in Golden Tate. Tate has consistently produced WR2 level though it has been a very volatile ride week to week. Hopefully, he can produce some of those boom weeks in the first quarter of the season while the Giants face a more difficult rush schedule.
After round 11, I threw all the rules out the window and did not select another running back or wide receiver. I selected Josh Allen to become the third team in the league with two quarterbacks. I then double-tapped the tight end position with Noah Fant and Dallas Goedert in the 13th and 14th respectively. I then drafted three quarterbacks who I will have no trouble dropping for skill positions that get a weekly boost based on injury. I finished the draft going Burrow, Roethlisberger, and Tannehill mostly as a troll. Next, I quickly dropped Tannehill for the Vikings defense as the remaining defenses played top-end offenses.
The Team
The final product with their fantasy pros ECR in parenthesis:
QB: Patrick Mahomes (QB1)
RB: Saquon Barkley (RB2)
RB: Kareem Hunt (RB29)
WR: Cooper Kupp (WR18)
WR: Marvin Jones (WR33)
WR: Golden Tate (WR50)
TE: Travis Kelce (TE1)
Flex: J.K. Dobbins (RB31)
Flex: Noah Fant (TE14)
DST: Minnesota Vikings
BN: Jalen Reagor (WR54)
BN: Antonio Gibson (RB47)
BN: A.J. Dillon (RB54)
BN: Dallas Goedert (17)
BN: Josh Allen (QB7)
BN: Joe Burrow (QB20)
BN: Ben Roethlisberger (QB16)
The Takeaways:
Strengths:
I will not have to worry about streaming quarterback matchups in a league of sharp players with Mahomes and my backup quarterbacks. Although I will not be rostering all four for long. Saquon Barkley offers a positional matchup in almost every game this season. He will be secured in the RB1 slot unless on bye or injured. Travis Kelce also offers a great positional matchup along with stacking points with Mahomes.
Weaknesses:
I admit to nothing!
In hindsight, had I known that 14 wide receivers would be taken in between my selection of Mahomes and my next pick, I would have reconsidered taking a receiver like Juju Smith-Schuster. However, this will just give me the challenge of finding stream-able receivers throughout the season.
Range of outcomes:
The best-case scenario for this team is to remain healthy, and for my four rookies to take over sufficient roles within their offenses to be usable by the middle of the season. Dobbins is likely to be usable early, as is Reagor once he is back off the mend. Gibson and Dillon are more of long shots. But, if they work out, I like my chances to make the playoffs. And I have the upside to make a championship run.
The most probabilistic case for this team is that there will be several weeks that are lost before they ever got started, due to the lack of depth. The team will only go as far as the Mahomes-Kelce stack allows for, but has trouble making the playoffs. Drafting a TE and QB this early may end up being a flawed strategy and the team will be a tad under .500.
The worst-case scenario for this team is a more extreme version of 2019. In the mold of both Mahomes and Barkley experiencing injuries, but longer-term injuries this year. Within the pandemic situation that we are in, players may be more likely to shut it down due to an injury that they may play through in a more normal season. Based on the lack of offseason, all four of my rookies may have trouble earning their way onto the field and I will not be able to stream
 Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article
