@DFF_Ztrain and I are breaking down the Derrius Guice debate for 2020 redraft formats. You can check his article out here. I’ll be taking the side of “never again,” and he’ll be giving you the side of a third-year breakout for Guice. With that said, let me get into why I don’t believe in Guice for 2020.
Injury History
Before I begin this segment, I have to make it clear that I’m not a doctor. Also, I don’t have any unique insight into Guice’s injury history. Even so, some facts are undeniable. Guice has played five of a possible 32 games in his first two NFL seasons. He missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL suffered in the preseason of 2018. While recovering, his knee became infected, requiring additional surgeries and lengthening his recovery time.
Then, sometime while rehabbing, Guice suffered a hamstring injury. The hamstring injury combined with his ACL rehab kept him out of practice for months, and he didn’t get cleared for full action until the third preseason game of 2019. He played in that game, taking 11 carries for 44 yards and looked mostly healthy.
After Guice seemed to be fully healthy, he suffered another setback in Week 1 of 2019. He injured his meniscus in that game, which forced him out of action until Week 11. Guice did return in Week 11, playing four straight games from Week 11 to Week 14. He played in a part-time role behind Peterson but then went out with an MCL sprain in Week 14. He missed the rest of the season with that injury.
While I don’t like to call any player “injury-prone,” Guice has been through countless injuries in just two years in the NFL. He’s hurt his ACL, hamstring, meniscus, and MCL so far and cannot seem to stay on the field. In general, I prefer to avoid these types of players; I require them to prove they can stay healthy before I take a chance on them. Unlike other players returning, Guice has never played a long stretch of healthy games in the NFL, so I have no template for what a healthy Guice would be.
Personnel Moves
The Redskins drafted Guice with the 59th overall pick in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. General manager Bruce Allen and head coach Jay Gruden felt that they needed to add to their backfield since they had just Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine, and Chris Thompson returning from 2017. While Thompson was a competent pass-catching back, Kelley and Perine inspired no confidence in early downs. Guice was an early down-workhorse at LSU, so he would be a perfect complement to Thompson.
After Guice suffered his torn ACL in the 2018 preseason, the Redskins decided to sign Adrian Peterson to a 1-year deal as his replacement. Peterson dominated the backfield in 2018, taking 251 carries, with no other running back getting more than 43. Peterson played well enough in 2018 to earn a contract extension for 2019 with an option for 2020.
Going into 2019, the Redskins made no significant additions to their running back room. Guice and Peterson were expected to split early-down work, with Thompson as the third-down back. Before the season, Guice was named the starter, with Peterson as a healthy scratch for Week 1. However, as discussed above, Guice couldn’t stay healthy all season, allowing Peterson to dominate the backfield. Peterson received 211 carries in 2019, once again serving as the workhorse back in Guice’s absence.
Midway through the 2019 season, the Redskins fired Gruden, replacing him with interim head coach Bill Callahan. Then, after the season, they decided also to fire Allen as general manager and bring in new head coach Ron Rivera. Rivera will serve both as head coach and as the de facto general manager, so he will have total control of the Redskins.
Since Rivera has joined the Redskins, all of his personnel moves have demonstrated a lack of confidence in Guice as the Redskins’ bell-cow running back. First, he exercised the 2020 option on Peterson’s contract, worth $2.5 million. While Peterson had performed well in 2018 and 2019, bringing back a veteran running back is not a sign of confidence in Guice.
Then, Rivera decided to sign two free-agent running backs: Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic. While McKissic is likely just a Chris Thompson-replacement, Barber is more concerning. He represents another two-down back and received $600,000 guaranteed at signing, a large number for someone not expected to make the team.
However, the death knell for Guice came in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Redskins selected playmaker Antonio Gibson with the 66th overall pick. While Gibson played mostly wide receiver in college, he began to take carries as a running back in 2019. He averaged 11.2 YPC on his 33 carries, and Rivera has compared him to Christian McCaffrey. As Rivera previously worked with McCaffrey in Carolina, I believe that he will incorporate Gibson heavily into his offense.
Overall, the Redskins have six running backs of significance on the roster: Peterson, Guice, McKissic, Barber, Gibson, and 2019 fourth-round pick Bryce Love. At least one of these players will not make the team, but I believe the Redskins will carry five running backs on the final roster. McKissic, Barber, and Love are fighting for those last two spots. No matter what, Peterson, Guice, and Gibson will all be on the roster. Therefore, even in the best-case scenario where those are the only three relevant players, Guice will need to fight off Peterson on early downs and Gibson on passing downs. Considering that the Redskins are a weak offense led by Dwayne Haskins, I have no interest in rostering him in redraft formats.
Redraft Ranking and Context
In my official PPR DFF redraft rankings, I currently have Guice as my RB35 and 82nd overall player. He comes in at the top of my ninth tier of running backs, just ahead of Phillip Lindsay and Darrell Henderson. Some of the running backs just above him include the pair of Baltimore running backs: Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins, Tarik Cohen, Sony Michel, and James White. I believe each of those players either provides more rushing or PPR upside than Guice.
Additionally, wide receiver value tends to slip down the board since the position is so deep. Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Michael Gallup, and Marquise Brown are the four receivers just above Guice. I would instead take a shot on any of them over him. Since Guice still has his backers, I expect him to go way before I would be willing to take him, so I will likely end up with no shares in 2020 redraft leagues.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
