This article will be a reaction to the release of the 2020 NFL schedule. Most of all, I’m excited that we have a schedule. I’m looking forward to the return of football in September, and this schedule makes it feel more real. Specifically, I’ll go through the two things that matter the most in redraft formats: bye weeks and early-season schedules.
Bye Weeks
Week 5: Lions, Packers
Week 6: Raiders, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks
Week 7: Colts, Jaguars, Vikings, Titans
Week 8: Cardinals, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers, Redskins
Week 9: Bengals, Browns, Rams, Eagles
Week 10: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers
Week 11: Bills, Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, 49ers
Week 13: Panthers, Buccaneers
League Formatting
Last year, the byes ranged from Week 4 to Week 12, with two to six teams having a bye in each of those weeks. This year, there are only eight weeks that have byes, but there are byes in Week 13. Unfortunately, having bye weeks in Week 13 severely reduces the options for fair and equitable playoff formats. Obviously, fantasy leagues should not play in Week 17, as that week tends to have a lot of rested starters.
Therefore, I believe that we essentially have a three-week window to play the fantasy playoffs in Week 14 to Week 16. For standard, 12-team leagues, most leagues should stick to a 6-team playoff format, with two byes, running from Week 14 to Week 16. The one thing I would suggest avoiding is any playoff format in which Week 13 is a single week game as part of the playoffs. If you want to have a four-team playoff with two-week matchups in Weeks 13 and 14 and Weeks 15 and 16, that could work. Just keep this in mind when formatting your leagues for 2020.
Strategy
In terms of strategy, I usually don’t pay much attention to bye weeks when drafting my redraft teams. Obviously, in any best-ball format, bye weeks are essential to roster construction, but that’s a story for another article. This year, byes don’t start until Week 5, so you will begin with four weeks before any pressure to adjust rosters based on byes. Therefore, I believe you can take a bit more risk on breakout players since you’ll have one extra week before you need to make those bye-week replacements.
Otherwise, I would actively ignore bye weeks when drafting. They will confuse you and will stop you from drafting value. Focus on creating the best team possible, as so much can change throughout the season. You don’t even know whether those players you’re drafting will be valuable by Week 3, let alone for a late-season bye. Things change exceptionally quickly in the NFL, so I’d ignore these byes. The one thing to consider is if your league does play a playoff game in Week 13. I wouldn’t avoid Christian McCaffrey under any circumstances, but I might use that factor to break a tie against Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, or D.J. Moore versus another player. However, I hope that most leagues avoid playing such a playoff game, as I recommended above.
Early-Season Schedules
While bye weeks play a small role in redraft strategy, early-season schedules are the lifeblood of my draft strategy for the quarterback position. For all but the top six quarterbacks, I will only draft those that I like their Week 1 matchup. For the quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson are exempt from this list. All of them will be drafted too early for my taste and are considered weekly starters by most. Since typically quarterback is one of my last selections in redraft, I’m beginning by streaming the position. If the quarterback doesn’t have a good Week 1 matchup, it’s a wasted roster spot, so I won’t draft them. The best-case scenario would be to find a multi-week streamer, but those don’t always exist. Let’s take a look at a couple of quarterbacks I’ll be targeting and avoiding.
Targets
Jimmy Garoppolo
While Jimmy Garoppolo currently ranks as my QB25, he starts the season in Week 1 at home versus the Cardinals. It’s a one-week play, but I expect Garoppolo to rank as a top-10 QB in Week 1. He threw four touchdowns in both of his starts against the Cardinals in 2019 and averaged 371 passing yards in those two games. Drop Garoppolo after Week 1, but you can wait on a quarterback and find a nice Week 1 play at the end of your draft.
Josh Allen
I’m already pretty high on Josh Allen, as he’s my QB7. However, he has a tremendous two-week opening to the season, playing the Jets at home in Week 1, followed by a road contest with the Dolphins in Week 2. While both the Jets and Dolphins have made some improvements since 2019, I would be happy to start Allen in both weeks. He probably won’t be available at the end of drafts like Garoppolo, but he does provide upside to turn into a regular starter at quarterback. If that appeals to you, Allen is an excellent choice in redraft.
Avoids
Baker Mayfield
I had some hope for Baker Mayfield in 2019, but the schedule has put him on my “do-not-draft” list. He opens at the Ravens in Week 1, one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. I can’t possibly start Mayfield in that game, and I won’t carry two quarterbacks in Week 1. Therefore, I will have no shares of Mayfield in redraft formats. However, if he’s terrible in Week 1 and gets dropped, he plays the Bengals and Redskins in Weeks 2 and 3. Keep an eye out for him on waiver wires.
Matthew Stafford
Similar to Mayfield, Matthew Stafford has a lot of upside in general for 2020. However, he plays Week 1 against the Bears, and I can’t start him in that matchup. He also draws another tough game in Week 2 at the Packers. Stafford isn’t strong enough of an option to play in unfavorable matchups, so I will avoid him in redraft. He’ll have streaming upside later on, but the schedule-makers killed him.
Outside of quarterback, I don’t worry too much about the schedule for the other positions. I’ll look at it a bit to choose my D/ST, but it’s early to focus on which units I want to target. Often, a random team gets a quarterback injury, and you can target that offense for a Week 1 streaming D/ST. There is more fluidity at D/ST, so it’s something to look at later on in the offseason.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
