It’s been two weeks since the NFL draft was completed and fantasy drafts have been in full swing ever since. In this article, I want to take a look at and break down what I have been seeing in the data I have collected to date. I have compiled a spreadsheet to track all the completed IDP rookie drafts that I can find. As of today, I have 30 league drafts entered and there has been some interesting information that I would like to pass along to you for any upcoming drafts you might have. So let’s jump right in and see the trends, where players are being picked, and what kind of value it is.
The first defensive player being taken in rookie drafts based on ADP is defensive end, Chase Young, from Ohio State. This is what many expected and the data is showing just that. He was drafted by the Washington Redskins and will be the bookend rusher to Montez Sweat. Young is currently being drafted at an average pick 12.4, which is at the back end of the first round. I have seen him go as high as the first overall pick and as low as the 21st pick, which is in the mid second round for most leagues. He is playing a position that needs more elite scorers and Young will be just that. For where he is being drafted, I think to be able to get him at pick 12 is pretty good value, with what you’ll get in return.
The second defensive player being selected in IDP rookie drafts is linebacker Isaiah Simmons from Clemson. If there was one player that could challenge Young for the top spot, many thought Simmons would be that guy and he was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals to be the Swiss Army knife of their defense. Simmons is being drafted at an average pick of 15.2 in fantasy drafts. That’s a late first to early second round pick, depending on your league size. Simmons has been drafted as early as the seventh overall pick and as low as the 26th pick. As you can see he’s going anywhere from a mid-first to mid-second rounds in fantasy drafts. He’s going just three picks later than Young and to get him at pick 15 is really good value.
The third defender off the board and the second linebacker taken is Patrick Queen from LSU. He was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens to be their star linebacker for many years to come. What is somewhat surprising to me is how closely he is being drafted to Simmons. Queen is being selected at an average pick of 16.1 in fantasy drafts, which is just one spot after Simmons, and in many cases, he is being taken ahead of Simmons. He has been drafted as early as the sixth pick and as late as the 35th pick. For the most part, Queen is being picked in the mid-teens, which matches his current ADP in rookie drafts. As you can see he is being drafted in the late first round of most drafts. This is a little earlier than I expected than he would be drafted and the value at sixteen is not what I would like. For me, I am passing on Queen at this current draft position, as I feel I can get comparable players a bit later, giving me better value.
Our fourth defensive player being drafted is also the third linebacker being selected by fantasy owners, Kenneth Murray, from Oklahoma. I assumed that Murray would have been the third defender drafted and definitely thought he’d go ahead of Queen. Murray was drafted by the Los Angeles Chargers, who finally hope that they have found their inside linebacker, after many failed attempts in previous drafts. This is where the first drop in ADP takes place. Murray is being selected at an average pick of 22.2 in fantasy drafts, which is in the mid to late second round. Murray has been drafted as high as the 10th overall pick and as low as pick #36. For me, this is much better value than what you get with Queen’s ADP, so I would wait for another six picks and take Murray.
The fifth defender being drafted is the first safety off the board, Xavier McKinney, from Alabama. The New York Football Giants selected McKinney to fill the vacancy left by free agent Antoine Bethea. Many analysts have considered McKinney as the best safety in this class and it appears fantasy owners feel the same way. This is the first sizable drop in the ADP data, as McKinney is getting drafted at pick 37.3, which is a full round after Murray. This current ADP places him getting drafted in the third round of rookie drafts. McKinney has been drafted as early as the 11th pick and as late as the 59th pick. Getting a player of this caliber, and at an important IDP fantasy position, is a value I can get behind.
The sixth defensive player that fantasy owners are drafting is defensive tackle, Derrick Brown, from Auburn, who was selected by the Carolina Panthers. Now, this pick carries weight in leagues that are position-specific and require you to start defensive tackle(s). It’s not often that interior defensive lineman gets drafted this early but it does happen from time to time. It’s not where he’s being drafted, but who he’s being drafted in front of, that I have an issue with. For me that makes his draft value go down. Brown is being selected at an ADP of 37.8 which is just a half a pick behind Xavier McKinney. He has been selected as early as the 12th pick and has been selected as late as the 68th pick. I understand that in leagues that utilize defensive tackle premium scoring, this makes Brown more valuable, but as a third round pick in fantasy drafts, it is just a bit early for me. If you can get him in the 45-50 range, I would feel better about the value.
For the seventh defender being drafted, we go back to the linebacker position, where Logan Wilson, from Wyoming, is the player of choice. One of my favorite IDP rookies in this class, he landed in one of the best situations with the Cincinnati Bengals. They knew what their weakness was and addressed it with one of the best players at the position. I not only love Wilson as a player and the team he landed with, but his ADP in rookie drafts makes this one of the most amazing values in fantasy drafts. Wilson is being drafted at an average of 38.8 in fantasy drafts, which is in the late third or early fourth round, depending on your league size. He will start in Cincinnati from day one and will be as good or better than the rookie linebackers drafted ahead of him. I have seen him drafted as early as the 14th pick and taken as late as the 59th pick. That’s a broad range I know, but he’s routinely being taken in the 35-45 range, which matches his ADP.
Now we get to our eighth defensive player that’s being selected in rookie drafts. Fantasy owners have been drafting linebacker Willie Gay from Mississippi State, who was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs. This was another player that landed with a team that will give him a good opportunity to succeed. He is currently being drafted at the 39.7 pick of fantasy drafts. Gay has been drafted as early as the 14th pick and late as the 61st pick. This ADP places him in the fourth round of rookie drafts, which is about where I expected him to be drafted.
The ninth defensive player drafted is linebacker Jordyn Brooks, from Texas Tech. He was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks to give them a shot of youth at the linebacker position and be the eventual replacement for K.J. Wright or Bobby Wagner. Here is another head-scratcher for me, as I just didn’t expect Brooks to get drafted this early. Fantasy owners, however, don’t seem to agree with me as they have been drafting him with the average pick of 40.8. With such a deep offensive class and a good defensive class overall, this is just too early for me to take a player that may need a year or so. His current ADP puts him in the fourth round which isn’t horrible, but there are a number of defensive players I would draft ahead of Brooks.
Our tenth and last player on this list is yet another linebacker, K’Lavon Chaisson, from LSU. The Jacksonville Jaguars took Chaisson to help rebuild the defensive unit that just fell off a cliff the past two seasons, and be the edge rusher of the future for them. Chaisson is currently being drafted at an average pick of 41.4 and has been taken as early as the 24th pick and as late as the 56th pick. If you believe in Chaisson as a pass rusher, then this is pretty good value for him. For me, I don’t think his production as a pass rusher in college was very good. He always seemed to just miss or force the quarterback into his teammates’ grasp. So if you can’t produce at the college level I don’t like your chances to produce in the pros. Chaisson is a player I am passing on altogether in fantasy drafts.
For those of you that play in leagues where you are required to start corners, then here’s the top cornerback being drafted in rookie drafts. Jeff Okudah was drafted by the Detroit Lions to be their starting corner after they traded away Darius Slay. Okudah is the top cornerback in this draft class and it’s not close. Fantasy owners feel the same way as they have been selecting him at an average pick of 55.1. That pick puts Okudah being taken in the fifth round of rookie drafts. He has been drafted as early as 20th and as late as the 78th. Okudah is mostly being drafted in the 55-60 range in most drafts. Most people don’t draft cornerbacks, but I’m not opposed if it’s the right guy. Everyone knows that rookie corners get picked on and tested a lot, so the target volume is there, but if he’s as good as everyone thinks, then those targets will fade quickly. If that holds true then his fantasy value will drop as well. Okudah is worth drafting but just stay aware of how he’s performing.
Below I have posted a chart showing how the top rookies being drafted at each position stack up against each other. Sometimes it’s the player that gets drafted early and sometimes it’s the position that drives the draft. I hope this information helps you with any future drafts that you have coming up.
Thanks for reading my article and if you enjoyed it, you can read more of my articles at dynastyfootballfactory.com. You can also follow me on social media, on Twitter at Hollywood@DFF_DWin, on Facebook on my IDPNation page, on Reddit in the fantasy football IDP sub I’m user KingTitan1 and you can tune in each week and listen to the podcasts, IDP Nation that I co-host, on a number of different platforms. Feel free to hit me up with any questions that you have, as I’m always glad to help fellow IDPers. #IDPNation #IDP #IDPDevy
