Rookie WR Hits and Misses: Part 3

The 2019 rookie wide receiver class was stacked. In part 1 and part 2, I went through nine receivers, and there are still so many to go. In this final part, I’ll go over the remaining receivers that had top-three round NFL Draft capital, found success in 2019, or were picked highly in rookie drafts. Since there are so many players, this will be more of a quick hits format. These rankings are from my rankings from back in late May or early June. The rankings assume a 1 QB, PPR dynasty format. 

Hits

Diontae Johnson

The Steelers selected Johnson with the 66th overall pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Coming into the season, Johnson was the fourth receiver on the Steelers’ depth chart. He sat behind Juju Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief, and James Washington. However, after Week 1, the Steelers had seen enough of Moncrief. From then on, Johnson and Washington shared the WR2 and WR3 roles behind Smith-Schuster. In that role, Johnson received 92 targets, converting those into 59 receptions for 680 yards and five touchdowns. He led the Steelers in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns, and he finished just behind Washington in receiving yards.

Considering that Johnson cost just a late-2nd round pick in rookie drafts, he’s a significant hit from the 2019 class. I believe that Johnson will be the WR2 on the Steelers, behind Smith-Schuster but ahead of Washington. For someone who had low expectations coming into 2019, that’s a roaring success. I currently value him around an early-2nd round rookie pick. 

Terry McLaurin

McLaurin went to the Redskins with the 76th overall pick in the third round of the NFL Draft. He entered a barren wide receiver room and moved into the number one receiver role over the summer. For the season, he led the Redskins in all receiving categories, putting up 58 catches on 93 targets for 919 yards and seven touchdowns. Each of those numbers far exceeded the second-best player in that category. 

Going forward, the Redskins must address their receiving weapons to find complements to McLaurin. Before 2019, the team cut former first-round pick Josh Doctson and lost tight end, Jordan Reed, to a concussion. Additionally, fellow receivers Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson both failed to produce in 2019, with Richardson cut after 2019. Pass-catching running back Chris Thompson is also a free agent and will not be retained. Rookies Steven Sims and Kelvin Harmon flashed at times, but neither produced consistently. Considering that the Redskins are an unattractive free-agent destination, I find it hard to believe that they will sign any of the top free-agent receivers. The NFL Draft is a more likely solution, and I think the Redskins will draft a minimum of one if not two or three receivers.

Therefore, McLaurin will likely enter 2020 as the Redskins’ number one option. Despite the presence of mediocre quarterback Dwayne Haskins, McLaurin should still be able to produce. I value him similarly to players like Deebo Samuel and D.J. Chark. For context, he falls between the 1.05 and 1.06 in rookie pick value. The one thing to remember with McLaurin is that he’s older than you think. He will turn 25 in September, so just keep that in mind when evaluating him.

Hunter Renfrow

Coming into the 2019 NFL Draft, few thought much of Renfrow or his draft stock. When the Raiders selected him with the 149th overall pick in the fifth round, I was mostly unfamiliar with him. However, throughout the summer of 2019, Renfrow dazzled in camp and won the slot receiver job. He was expected to man the slot alongside outside receivers Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams and tight end Darren Waller. While Renfrow was intriguing, he was the fourth target at best, possibly even the fifth behind specialist receiving running back Jalen Richard. 

Before the season, everything changed when the Raiders released Brown. Brown’s release opened a void for Renfrow to receive targets. In 2019, he finished second behind Waller with 71 targets and 49 receptions. He also finished third on the team with 605 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. 

While his stats did not make him fantasy relevant, he showed far more than a typical fifth-round receiver. Considering I had him outside of my rookie top 50, Renfrow is a hit. While I believe the Raiders will bring in another outside receiver to complement Williams, I still value Renfrow around a late-2nd round rookie pick. He will retain the slot role in 2020 and could progress as a player in year two.

Preston Williams

Williams’ story is unusual. While some teams put a first-round grade on Williams, the NFL did not invite him to the NFL Combine due to off-field issues and arrests related to domestic violence. Therefore, he went undrafted in the 2019 NFL Draft and signed as a UDFA with the Dolphins. Throughout the summer, Williams received a lot of hype as a sleeper. However, he remained fourth on the Dolphins’ depth chart, behind veterans DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Albert Wilson.

A week before the season, the Dolphins traded Stills to the Texans, opening a role in the offense. In Week 1, Williams split time with Wilson, Jakeem Grant, and Allen Hurns behind Parker. In that game, Wilson suffered a calf injury, opening a starting spot. Williams immediately leapfrogged Grant and Hurns and became a starter with Parker. In Week 3, Williams played on 96% of snaps and had 12 targets. Even though he only caught four of those for 68 yards, he was now a top target on the team. Williams played five more games and received six or more targets in each contest. 

Unfortunately, Williams was lost for the season in Week 9 with a torn ACL. For his eight games, he totaled 32 receptions on 60 targets for 428 yards and three touchdowns. Considering that Williams was a total afterthought in 2019 rookie drafts, he is a big hit. I now value Williams around the 2.04 rookie pick. Even at that price, he still has some upside since he will just turn 23 in March. Also, the Dolphins could bring in a new long-term solution at quarterback, potentially either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. Because of the ACL, Williams’ value is currently depressed, so he’s an excellent buy target in dynasty formats.

Darius Slayton

Of all the players listed, Slayton was the most significant oversight in dynasty rookie drafts. Even though Giants drafted him in the fifth round, dynasty owners mostly ignored Slayton. I ranked him outside the top 60 rookies, which is undrafted in a typical five-round 12 team rookie draft. Coming into 2019, the Giants were a crowded passing offense led by a below-average quarterback in Eli Manning. They had Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard as their top receivers, Evan Engram at tight end, and Saquon Barkley at running back.

Slayton began the season behind veterans Cody Latimer and Bennie Fowler on the depth chart. Additionally, he missed the first two games of 2019 with a hamstring injury. In Week 3, Slayton returned. Tate was still serving his four-game suspension, and Latimer missed the game with a concussion. Therefore, Slayton split time with the other Giants’ receivers behind Shepard. He played 44% of snaps and caught three balls on five targets for 82 yards. Additionally, he showed chemistry with a new starting quarterback, rookie Daniel Jones. 

Slayton progressed on the depth chart and became a starter in Week 6, maintaining that role for the rest of the season. He totaled 48 catches on 84 targets for 740 yards and eight touchdowns. I value Slayton very highly moving forward. I expect him to play ahead of Shepard and Tate in 2020. Therefore, I would pay up to the 2.02 rookie pick for Slayton, placing him inside my top 100 in dynasty. Considering that he was free in rookie drafts, he’s the biggest hit of all these players.

Misses

Hakeem Butler

There’s not much to say about Butler. He was a top-5 selection in pre-NFL Draft rookie rankings. He fell to the first pick of the fourth round to the Cardinals, behind fellow rookie wide receiver Andy Isabella. While I dropped him in my rookie rankings, I think I should have dropped him far further. Butler ended up missing the entire 2019 season with a hand injury and received poor reviews in camp. Even though we didn’t see him on the field, he was expensive enough in rookie drafts that I feel like he deserves to be a miss. I’d take any 3rd round rookie pick in exchange for Butler at this point.

Miles Boykin

The Ravens selected Boykin with the 93rd overall pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Along with his rookie teammate, Marquise Brown, most expected Boykin to step into a starting role. Of the Ravens’ veteran receivers, Willie Snead was the only one expected to compete with Brown and Boykin for a significant role in the offense. Some thought that Boykin was more pro-ready than Brown and would challenge Brown for the top receiver spot.

While technically Boykin started 11 games, he was far from relevant in 2019. He finished eighth on the Ravens in targets with 22 and also eighth in receptions with 13. Boykin also only played 50% or more snaps in three of 16 games, and his highest snap count was 54%. Additionally, he finished fourth among Ravens’ receivers in snaps, behind Snead, Brown, and Seth Roberts. The Ravens’ offense rarely used 11 personnel, typically preferring to use 12 personnel. They deployed tight end Nick Boyle as a blocker and either Mark Andrews or Hayden Hurst as a receiver. Additionally, they used 22 or 21 personnel, which are two-running back sets with one or two wide receivers.

Because of the Ravens’ lack of focus on the receivers, Boykin flopped in 2019. Considering that the Ravens went 14-2 and had one of the NFL’s best offense, I don’t see why they would change their approach in 2020. Therefore, I can’t see Boykin breaking out. I value him around a mid to late 3rd round rookie pick. He’s lost value since the 2019 rookie season, and I don’t see that trend changing. I’d stay away from Boykin.

Incomplete

Jalen Hurd

Hurd played as a running back for Tennessee from 2014-2016, starting ahead of Alvin Kamara in 2015 and 2016. Then, he transferred to Baylor and played 2018 as a wide receiver. The 49ers selected Hurd with the 67th overall pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. They expected Hurd to play in a diverse role, using both his running back and receiver skills as a weapon in their offense. However, Hurd didn’t play at all in 2019 after suffering a back fracture. Considering his low rookie draft cost and diverse skill set, I feel that Hurd still has upside and is incomplete. 

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.