Rookie WR Hits and Misses: Part 2

In part 1 of this article, found here, I discussed the top four wide receivers from the 2019 rookie class. In this part, I’ll look at five receivers that all fell in a similar tier for me. These rankings are from my rankings from back in late May or early June. The rankings assume a 1 QB, PPR dynasty format. 

Hits

Deebo Samuel

The 49ers drafted Samuel with the 36th overall pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. The 49ers’ wide receiver group had second-year player Dante Pettis and veteran Marquise Goodwin as the starters. Samuel would compete with fellow rookie Jalen Hurd and veterans Kendrick Bourne, Richie James, and Trent Taylor for the WR3 role behind Goodwin and Pettis. Throughout the summer, most of his competition fell by the wayside. Taylor and Hurd suffered severe injuries and missed all of 2019. Also, 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan consistently criticized Pettis and speculated about cutting Goodwin from the roster entirely. 

In Week 1, Samuel led the 49ers’ receivers with an 88% snap share, although he had just three receptions for 17 yards. The 49ers benched Pettis, giving him only two offensive snaps. After Week 1, the 49ers rotated Pettis, Samuel, Goodwin, and Bourne, a rotation that continued through Week 7. In Week 8, the 49ers traded for Emmanuel Sanders. They benched Pettis and Goodwin and used Sanders and Samuel as their two starting receivers, with Bourne as the primary WR3.

Then, in Week 10, Samuel broke out. He caught eight passes on 11 targets for 112 yards. He followed up that outburst by catching eight balls for 134 yards in Week 11. Additionally, the 49ers wanted to find more ways to get Samuel the ball. Starting in Week 13, Samuel received at least one rushing attempt in every game, including the 49ers’ three playoff games. Between regular season and playoffs, Samuel had 20 carries for 261 yards and three rushing touchdowns.

Looking forward to 2020, Samuel is the clear WR1 in the 49ers’ offense. He has displaced all of his competition and only will compete with George Kittle for the 49ers’ top target. Even though the 2020 class is stacked, I would prefer to have Samuel ahead of all but the top tier of players. I currently value Samuel between the 1.05 and 1.06 rookie pick. Considering that he was my 1.11 in a far weaker 2019 class, Samuel is the biggest hit from these players.   

Marquise Brown

I debated whether to call Brown a hit or put him in the incomplete section. However, I decided that he had gained enough value to call him a hit. Brown was the first receiver drafted in the 2019 NFL Draft, going at the 25th pick in the first round to the Ravens. At the time, the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson were considered a weak landing spot for Brown. Jackson had not supported any receiving weapons as a starter in 2018, so there were fears that Brown could perform poorly in Baltimore.

However, Jackson far outperformed expectations in 2019, leading the NFL’s best offense. Brown played as the WR1 from the beginning, leading the receiver group in targets with 71. Willie Snead was the WR2 with 46 targets, with no other receiver having more than 35 targets. Brown converted his 71 targets into 46 receptions for 584 yards and seven touchdowns. He played a speedster and deep threat role for Jackson throughout the year, despite struggling with some injuries.

Brown’s value mostly increased due to the play of Jackson, not Brown’s play. Brown filled almost precisely the role I expected him to fill in 2019 and showed similarly as a player to what I expected to see. I currently value Brown between the 1.08 and 1.09 rookie pick, so he’s gained some value since the 2019 rookie draft. With that said, I’m not a fan of Brown and his long-term upside because I’m not sure he’s ever going to be more than just a speedster. Also, his seven touchdowns on only 71 targets are due for significant regression. I’d prefer to invest elsewhere in his value range.

Misses

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

After the Eagles drafted Arcega-Whiteside with the 57th overall pick of the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, I was very excited. Based on the Eagles’ offense and quarterback Carson Wentz, I vaulted Arcega-Whiteside up to the rookie WR6 and the 12th overall rookie in my rankings. The Eagles did have Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson as their starting wide receivers, but neither had been consistent anytime recently. The only other relevant receiver at the time was Nelson Agholor, who had been a massive bust and still is. At the very least, I thought that Arcega-Whiteside would quickly overtake Agholor for playing time and would play in 3WR sets.

To say that Arcega-Whiteside disappointed would be a massive understatement. He was a complete bust in 2019. Jackson played in three games all season, barely appearing in two of them. Jeffery missed six games with a few different injuries. Agholor continued his horrific career with a sickening 56.5% catch rate and an embarrassing 9.3 yards per reception–even worse than his prior years. 

Despite all of the injuries in front of him, Arcega-Whiteside managed just 22 targets all season. He caught only 10 of those for 169 yards and one touchdown. Considering that he played all 16 games, started five of them, and had a solid quarterback, these numbers were unacceptable. He was even outplayed by undrafted rookie Greg Ward, who managed to get 40 targets and 28 receptions in just seven games.

Looking forward to 2020, the Eagles seem committed to running 12 personnel on most plays. 12 personnel is a 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB formation for anyone who doesn’t know. The Eagles have two strong tight ends in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, making 12 personnel their best offensive alignment. Both Jeffery and Jackson have massive dead cap hits for 2020, so I expect both to be back in Philadelphia. Therefore, there is already little room for Arcega-Whiteside in the offense. Additionally, I fully expect the Eagles to draft a wide receiver in the first or second round in this year’s draft. Whoever that player is, he will immediately leapfrog Arcega-Whiteside and will further bury him on the depth chart. 

I would value Arcega-Whiteside as an early 3rd round rookie pick, a far cry from the borderline first-round value he held in 2019. Even at that price, I would not buy him right now. His value will tank if the Eagles do draft an early receiver. To me, there is a very valuable lesson to be learned here. First-round players like Marquise Brown are guaranteed opportunities, but second-round guys are not. I should have ranked Brown over Arcega-Whiteside, and I will weigh draft capital even more heavily for the 2020 rookie draft season.

Andy Isabella

Similar to Arcega-Whiteside, Isabella was a complete disappointment in 2019. The Cardinals selected Isabella with the 62nd overall pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. They expected Isabella to join a receiving corps led by Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, alongside fellow rookies, fourth-rounder Hakeem Butler and sixth-rounder KeeSean Johnson. Then, before the season, Butler went on injured reserve with a hand injury, further opening the door for Isabella to gain a starting role. 

However, Isabella never managed to gain his projected starting role in the offense. First, the Cardinals failed to use the four-wide sets that many expected head coach Kliff Kingsbury to use. Instead, tight ends Maxx Williams, and Charles Clay split a starter’s role, reducing the receiver rotation to a top three. Kirk and Fitzgerald were locked-in starters for the entire season. At first, the Cardinals used Johnson as their primary third receiver. After Johnson proved ineffective, they went with veteran Damiere Byrd.

Eventually, after acquiring Kenyan Drake, they used David Johnson as a third receiver and also mixed in some two tight-end sets. The one significant commonality was that Isabella did not appear in any of these offensive alignments. Despite playing in 15 games, Isabella was only present for 15% of offensive snaps and recorded just nine receptions on 13 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown. 

Going forward, the future for Isabella does not look bright. Both Kirk and Fitzgerald are still with the Cardinals in 2020, so at best, Isabella will be the WR3 on the team. They want to retain Drake but are stuck with David Johnson’s contract. Therefore, they may try to use Johnson as a slot receiver once again in 2020.

The Cardinals have been consistently linked to Oklahoma wide receiver CeeDee Lamb with their first-round pick, as he was quarterback Kyler Murray’s college teammate. No matter what happens, the Cardinals will be a crowded offense with Isabella far down the target pecking order. I value him around the same as Arcega-Whiteside, as an early 3rd round rookie pick. Even at that cost, I’d rather simply avoid him right now due to the risk of the Cardinals adding Lamb to the roster. If they did select Lamb, Isabella’s value would evaporate entirely.

Incomplete

Mecole Hardman

Hardman went to the Chiefs with the 56th overall pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Coming into draft season, most had Hardman as a late-round rookie pick, but he shot up draft boards given his high draft capital and excellent landing spot. The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, are one of the best offenses in the NFL. Additionally, at the time, Tyreek Hill was facing serious legal action and an expected NFL suspension. Therefore, both outside observers and the Chiefs saw Hardman as a potential long-term replacement for Hill alongside fellow receiver Sammy Watkins.

During the 2019 rookie draft season, Hardman was one of the most polarizing players in drafts. In one of my rookie drafts, he went at the 1.06 selection. Some people stuck to their pre-draft rankings and had him even lower than my ranking of 14th overall. But unfortunately, Hardman’s historical ranking is almost impossible to determine. Every day, more information came out about Hill’s legal issues, constantly adjusting Hardman’s value.  

As we all know, Hill was eventually not suspended and returned for the start of the regular season. The Chiefs use a base three-wide alignment, with three receivers moving around the formation to complement tight end Travis Kelce and whoever is at running back. Going into the season, Hardman and veteran Demarcus Robinson competed for that WR3 role behind Hill and Watkins. In Week 1, Robinson and Hardman split time, but neither achieved much. 

However, Hill suffered a severe chest injury in Week 1, forcing Hardman into the lineup going forward. Unfortunately for Hardman, Hill’s injury clarified the pecking order for the Chiefs. Watkins became their WR1, Robinson was the WR2, and Hardman played as the WR3. Hill missed Weeks 2-5, and Robinson out-snapped Hardman in each game. After Hill returned in Week 7, Robinson and Hardman returned to splitting the WR3 role. Then, in Week 8, Hardman suddenly had his role cut. He never exceeded a 38% snap share again, outside of Week 11, where Hill left injured early in the game. Robinson continued to play ahead of him, despite Hardman’s propensity for big plays. For the season, Hardman totaled 26 receptions on 41 targets for 538 yards and six touchdowns. He also returned kicks and punts, scoring a kick return touchdown. 

Looking forward to 2020, Robinson is a free agent and will almost certainly sign elsewhere. Watkins can be cut for a cap savings of $14 million and is a strong candidate to be a cap casualty. Hill is under a long-term contract. Hardman is incomplete, not a hit or a miss, because his value depends on something entirely separate from his play on the field. If the Chiefs release Watkins and don’t bring in a free-agent receiver to play ahead of Hardman, then Hardman was a hit. He’d be the WR2 on a Mahomes-led offense and insanely hyped going into 2020.

However, if the Chiefs restructure Watkins’ contract or sign someone else in free agency, then Hardman will be in a murky situation. I currently value Hardman as a late-1st rookie pick, which would be a hit compared to my 2019 rankings, but not compared to the mid-1st rookie pick some dynasty owners spent on him. This situation is one of the most important for dynasty owners going forward. Make sure to keep an eye on Hardman throughout the offseason.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.