The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today.
We will start with the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.
The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital in predicting the future fantasy success of incoming prospects. For a full breakdown of the model’s past performance, click this link. You can also find the 2025 model here and the 2024 model here, where we were one of the very few publications to have Malik Nabers as the top wide receiver overall instead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Even the NFL had Harrison higher, as Nabers was drafted behind Harrison in the NFL Draft. Here is the WR1 model I published in 2023, featuring Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR1. The WR1 model is exceptional at identifying the true elite wide receivers. 17 of the 20 top-scoring prospects with at least three years in the NFL have had a top-24 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season.
Fourteen of the 20 have also had a top-12 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season. Nine have had multiple top 12 seasons, including perennial top-5 studs like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.
So let’s dive into the 2026 class.
Honorable mention
Deion Burks, Oklahoma | WR1 Model Score: -12
Based on historical comps, Deion Burks WR1 Model score of -12 gives him an 8.2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
The Good
I am including Deion Burks as an honorable mention out of respect for Daniel Jeremiah. Jeremiah is one of the most highly respected mock draft prognosticators in our industry. His most recent mock draft predicted Burks as a second-rounder, pick 46 overall. Jeremiah called Burks, “A 5’9″, 188 lb playmaker, Burks is noted for his explosive speed, quick feet, and ability to generate yards after the catch.”
Fam, I love Daniel Jeremiah, but I fear selecting Burks in the second round would be a brutal mistake, as you will see in the Bad and Ugly sections. In my version 2.0 of this WR1 Model write-up, my prediction is that Burks falls out of the top 15, as he will no longer have this mock draft estimate to prop up his overall model score.
Lance Zeirlein gave Burks a solid 6.18 film grade. Zeirlein writes of Burks. “Fifth-year slot receiver who is savvy against zone coverage and crafty after making a catch. Burks does a good job of utilizing his straight-line speed when the ball is in his hands. He struggles to win on vertical routes, though. He creates windows underneath by crisply breaking off short routes. He’s a compact, short-armed target who secures catches through contact.”
The Bad
The only metric that wasn’t brutal from an analytics standpoint for Burks was his weighted dominator rating. His 29.2% percent team share of touchdowns and receiving yards ranked tenth among prospects in this draft class.
The Ugly
Everything else. As you can see from the stats table above, we have to go back to his sophomore season at Purdue to find Burks’ best season from a production standpoint. This is highly atypical for a prospect.
For the prospects graded for the model, Burks finished last in receiving yards per team pass attempt (1.60), yards per route run (1.58), and PFF receiving grade (65.8). #NotGood
15. Ted Hurst, Georgia St. | WR1 Model Score: -5
Based on historical comps, Ted Hust WR1 Model score of -5 gives him a 12.1% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
The Good
Hurst went viral recently for his highlight reel catch at Senior Bowl practice
I caution everyone from reacting to any single film highlight. Remember, this helped vault Zach Wilson to the top of the NFL Draft. The fact that they are at the Senior Bowl in the first place means they aren’t in the top tier of NFL prospects. The best prospects have already wrapped up their draft capital and do not want to risk injury or a bad showing.
Hurst had a productive college career, which contributed to his selection as one of our top 15 prospects. His 17.2 fantasy points per game were tied for the top in the class. He was also one of only eight prospects with a weighted dominator (team share of receiving yards and touchdowns) above 30.0%. His performance in both of these metrics contributed positively to his overall WR1 Model score.
Additionally, Hurst had a solid 2.76 yards per route run, which is one of the more important contributing metrics to the overall WR1 Model score.
The Bad
It is exceedingly rare to see a prospect declare early from a non-Power 4 school, and that is once again the case here. Hurst received a 5-point deduction from his overall model score for not being an early declarer.
The Ugly
It is stating the obvious that Hurst played against far weaker competition than most others in these rankings. With the modern-day transfer portal madness, you want to see your NFL prospects eventually end up playing in a Power 4 conference against top-level competition. The fact that Hurst did not level up is a significant blow to his overall WR1 Model Score.
14. Malachi Fields, Notre Dame | WR1 Model Score: -2
Based on historical comps, Malachi Fields WR1 Model score of -2 gives him an 12.1% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
- Jalen Tolbert
- Tez Johnson
- Khalil Shakir
The Good
Our WR1 Model is at odds with early mock draft forecasters who predict Fields will be a second-round pick. His analytical profile does not support this draft capital, even with the projected second-round draft capital contributing 5 points to the overall score. Nonetheless, draft capital is an important input into the model. It is important to note that there are always IRL reasons for an NFL team to draft a player that do not impact fantasy. For example, Fields is a highly regarded blocker. He also plays X and can serve as a vertical threat to open up space for underneath routes. These vertical threat WR’s (H. Ruggs, J. Williams, J. Ross) tend to get drafted above their expected fantasy production because they offer other intrinsic value for NFL teams.
The Bad
Not only did Fields fail to declare for the NFL draft after his third-year out of high school when first eligible, but he also failed to declare after his fourth. He is a fifth-year red shirt Senior. This archetype rarely succeeds, although there are notable outliers such as Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin. Word to the wise. Do not chase outliers.
The Ugly
Fields really struggles with separation. He was largely a contested catch specialist in college. I tend to avoid this specific archetype (See Keon Coleman) because it does not translate to competing against the NFL’s bigger, faster, elite athletes. Fields does have the frame at 6’4, 222 to win in these situations. Outliers who win this way consistently include players such as Courtland Sutton.
Fields also struggled with multiple key predictive metrics for the WR1 model. His yards per route run and PFF receiving grade both ranked 15 or lower among the prospects in this class, subtracting 5 points from his overall model score.
13. Elijah Sarratt, Indiana | WR1 Model Score: 4
Based on historical comps, Elijah Sarratt’s WR1 Model score of 4 gives him an 17.3% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
The Good
Sarratt led all prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft in college career fantasy points per game at 17.3. This helps measure age-adjusted production, an important predictor of future NFL success. This added 3 points to his overall WR1 Model score. He also had a strong PFF receiving grade of 85.2.
The Bad
Mendoza referred to his Indiana championship teammates as a “band of misfits”. So you know we aren’t dealing with 5-star recruits here. Sarrat started his college career at FCS St. Francis before transferring to James Madison and then finally to Indiana. As such, Sarratt gets dinged in our model for not declaring when he was first eligible for the NFL draft. Early declares hit at a far higher rate than non-early declares.
The Ugly
Sarratt is a fringe Day2/Day 3 prospect in early mock drafts. If he falls to Day 3, less than 2% of these prospects have a meaningful impact on fantasy teams.
12. Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana | WR1 Model Score: 6
Based on historical comps, Omar Cooper’s WR1 Model score of 6 gives him an 28.4% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
The Good
“The Indiana Hoosiers are your 2026 National Champions!” is someone noone expected to hear in August. But here we are, and Cooper was a huge part of that success.
Winning a Natty is an impressive resume builder in terms of appreciating NFL Draft Capital. Cooper is expected to receive Day 2 draft capital. Per DC Prof, over a 20-year period, 399 WRs were drafted into the NFL between rounds 4-7. Only 7 of them (1.7%) posted more than 1 top 36 WR fantasy season within their first 3 years in the NFL.
Cooper had an impressive PFF receiving grade. PFF charts every target a receiver gets over the course of a season, so this is a comprehensive look at their entire portfolio of work. With a PFF grade of 86, Cooper ranked 4th in the class. This grade contributed 5 points to his overall WR1 score. Cooper excels after the catch. He led this draft class in missed tackle rate among wide receivers.
The Bad
With the Indiana receiver tandem of Elijah Sarrat and Omar Cooper, there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg scenario. Were they good because of Fernando Mendoza, or was Fernando Mendoza great because of them? Well, that plays into the metrics we choose to identify future fantasy potential. They are predictive, largely independent of quarterback play.
Cooper accumulated a pedestrian 2.31 receiving yards per team pass attempt, ranking 10th in this WR class.
The Ugly
While Cooper has shown versatility to play outside in the past, he played 83.3% of his snaps from the slot in 2025. Playing slot in college can be a cheat code due to the wider hash marks (40 ft vs 18.5), allowing a lot more room to operate than in the NFL
Players receive directional intel on their NFL draft capital well before the draft. This allows them to decide whether to declare early. If they do not declare early, it is a strong indicator that the NFL did not believe they were talented enough to warrant high draft capital. Cooper was first eligible to declare for the NFL draft last year, so this tells us the NFL likely did not consider him a top-three-round prospect.
11. Germie Bernard, Alabama | WR1 Model Score: 15
Based on historical comps, Germie Bernard’s WR1 Model score of 15 gives him a 28.4% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
The Good
Bernard played at the highest level of college football against the best competition for the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC. The WR1 Model rewards prospects who compete against the best and produce the best talent in the NFL.
The Bad
While Bernard did play against the best, he didn’t separate himself as truly elite playing against that level of competition. His quarterback this year, Ty Simpson, is expected to be a first-round pick, so you can not blame quarterback play.
Anything under a 2.00 best season yards per route run tends to be a non-starter for me when selecting a player for Dynasty. They would have to seriously outperform in other metrics for me to consider them. Bernard eclipsed that threshold but with little margin for error, with a 2.24.
Lance Zeirlein awarded Bernard a film grade of 6.29, adding 3 points to his overall WR1 model score. Zeirlein writes, “Bernard is a versatile wideout with ascending production over the last three years. He has good size, accelerates to top speed quickly, and is a smooth route runner with well-disguised breaks and clean footwork getting in and out. He can line up outside or in the slot and is capable of running a full route tree across all three levels. He has impressive run-after-catch ability. Bernard’s second gear as a field-stretcher is fairly ordinary, and he doesn’t always play to his size when it’s time to compete for catch space. Bernard projects as an above-average WR2/3.”
The Ugly
The model predicts future fantasy value, so naturally, fantasy points per game are an important contributor to the overall score. Bernard was one of only three players graded to score under 10 fantasy points per game in his career. He couldn’t crack the top ten in yards per route run (2.24) or PFF receiving grade (71.6).
Bonus Prospect
Eli Heidenreich, Navy | WR1 Model Score: Incomplete
Eli Heidenreich is an off-the-radar player from Navy that most of the big film graders have not graded yet, including the one I use for this model, NFL.com scouting legend Lance Zeirlein. His film grade will be very important to his overall WR1 model score. He plays in one of the most unique offensive systems in college football, notorious for amplifying a singular player’s productivity.
He gets a major stain on his resume for the level of competition, but he has some eye-popping analytics. His 4.73 yards per route run is easily tops in this class, well above the wide receivers who will be selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft. Again, this could be amplified by his dual role usage as both a rusher and receiver. When he runs a route at wide receiver, he more than likely has a play called for him.
This article will be updated once the film grades come in. This is also version 1.0. The final version will be updated after the NFL Draft.
This concludes the player rankings outside of the top 10. Look for those in the coming weeks, as well as our other position analytical model rankings.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. All of my articles share one goal: to provide you, our member, with actionable advice that can improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy or Blue Sky @forcefantasy.bsky.social. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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