We’re only three weeks into the 2024 NFL season, but enough has changed within the Dynasty Fantasy Football landscape that I felt it would be a fun exercise to run through my own startup mock draft. This mock will be based on a Dynasty Superflex, Tight End Premium format. I’ll run through the first round (12 picks) in this article, but keep an eye out for Part 2, where I’ll cover my second-round guys!
You’ll notice in this draft that the quarterback position is being pushed down a bit while the skill players have moved up. Most of us who play Dynasty Superflex are used to seeing the first 6+ players off the board being quarterbacks, and typically, 9+ quarterbacks are gone in the first round. Well, the 2024 season has taught us we need to change our thinking entirely regarding startups. Let me explain.
The biggest difference in 2024 is the decline in passing production across the entire league. Teams seem much more content to complete passes around the line of scrimmage than to push the ball downfield, resulting in a drop in fantasy production for most quarterbacks. To demonstrate just how different NFL passing offenses look in 2024, I’ve pulled some numbers from Pro Football Reference:
- Fewest team pass attempts per game since 1992
- Fewest team pass yards per game since 2003
- Fewest pass TDs per game since 1993
- Highest completion percentage in NFL history
Yet yards per attempt (Y/A) and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) align with the previous two seasons. This is clearly because, while downfield passing has dropped significantly, completion percentage is at an all-time high, and yards after the catch are easier to come by on those manufactured touches around the LOS. I’m not going to discuss the “why” behind the drop in passing production (maybe I’ll work on that article in-season); just know this is why we need to be devaluing quarterbacks who don’t rush frequently.
With that out of the way, let’s jump into my Top 12 Superflex picks!
1.01 – Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
This one is still a no-brainer. Allen is the QB1 overall through three weeks, has thrown seven touchdowns to no interceptions, and is a threat on the ground every week. His Week 2 dud was only because they were blowing Miami out of the water. Nobody else should even be in consideration for the 1.01 if you ask me.
1.02 – Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Say what you will about Lamar as a real-life quarterback, but there’s no denying he’s an ultra-elite fantasy option. At minimum, he’s Baltimore’s guy through 2026, has averaged 20+ FPPG the past five seasons, and we’ve seen him surpass 28 FPPG before (2019). Jackson’s already over 250 rush yards this year. He’s a cheat code.
1.03 – CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Lamb is coming off a 2023 season in which he was the WR1 overall and just signed a massive extension with the Cowboys. He hasn’t gotten off to the start many expected, but Dallas will figure it out. Lamb is only 25 and tied to Dak Prescott. The lack of competition surrounding Lamb gives him such a safe floor, and we’ve obviously seen his ceiling.
1.04 – Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
I think it’s pretty clear Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver talent in the NFL. We’ve also seen him finish as the WR1 overall in fantasy football. Sam Darnold has been a pleasant surprise in 2024, so Jettas is doing just fine. I just prefer Lamb’s situation.
1.05 – Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
If Malik Nabers isn’t in your top tier of Dynasty WRs at this point, you’re doing it wrong. According to PFF, Nabers is flaunting an incredible 31.5% target rate this season. He’s the clear alpha in New York and may be good enough to save Daniel Jones his job. Given the sheer volume he’s seeing, you should never have to worry about Nabers from a fantasy perspective.
1.06 – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
I’m sure you all were wondering whether I forgot about the three-time Super Bowl champ. I did not, and I still view Mahomes as a Top 3 quarterback in Dynasty. He’s finished as a Top 8 QB in six straight seasons and a Top 4 QB in four. But his ceiling is capped due to the limited rushing upside, and the passing volume is no longer there. Sorry to break it to you, but Andy Reid doesn’t care about your fantasy team.
1.07 – Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS)
I’m sure many will view this as an overreaction, and that’s fine. You enjoy your zero Jayden shares in Dynasty. Frankly, he will be an untouchable asset with a couple more big-time performances. Daniels is the QB2 overall through three weeks. He’s found his footing much faster than C.J. Stroud did last season, and we viewed him as a Top 3 overall player this offseason. Daniels has the same rushing upside as Lamar and could pass him up in Dynasty by the end of the season.
1.08 – Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
MHJ hasn’t earned the same target share Nabers has earned through three weeks, but he’s gotten more involved in the offense each week and is already sitting with roughly 200 yards and three touchdowns. Harrison will be a Top 5 Dynasty WR for the next 6+ years. The elite upside plus the youth makes him a clear first-round startup talent.
1.09 – C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)
Stroud has certainly disappointed to begin his sophomore campaign, but let’s not forget he put up a QB1 finish as a rookie, throwing for over 4,000 yards. He’s the franchise guy in an above-average offense and will be around for the long haul. While the job security is nice, I had to push him down a bit due to the passing regression league-wide. But he’s still a guy you want to build a Dynasty team around, without a doubt.
1.10 – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
I posted a tweet last week stating that Chase was my Dynasty WR7. I’ve since realized this is probably a slight overreaction, although I don’t think an argument can be made for Chase as a Top 3 WR anymore. The Washington game didn’t change much for me; we knew the Commanders’ secondary was garbage, and Chase was going to eat. Now, let’s see him build on that and give us a little consistency.
1.11 Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
Last year, I posted an article stating I preferred Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs at cost over Bijan. That may still be true, but I give Bijan the edge regarding overall value. He’s only the RB15 through three weeks, but I expect that to continue rising as he finds the endzone more frequently. Robinson has seen a healthy workload in all three weeks and simply looks like the best player on the field every time I watch him. He has to be RB1 overall.
1.12 Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
ARSB has had two great outings following that Week 1 dud against the Rams. He’s coming off a season where he finished WR3 overall, and while I don’t think that’s necessarily in his range of outcomes this year, he’s still an elite asset and incredibly young. The NFL going away from the deep ball doesn’t affect ARSB much as a slot guy. I just wish Jared Goff was a little better at football. But he should be competent enough to keep ARSB as a WR1.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
