Chrishon McCray | WR | Kent State | RS Sophomore
Much of the enjoyment I derive from Devy fantasy football is from the process of researching college prospects to find value where others don’t think to look. If you draft a college player right before his fantasy stock begins to rise, not only do you feel like a genius amongst your league mates, but you have added considerable value to your fantasy roster for little cost. The prospect I will discuss today that could fit this mold is Chrishon McCray, wide receiver out of Kent State. In his first full collegiate season for the Golden Flashes, he posted some impressive numbers from a per-route perspective. Before we dive into the analytics, though, let’s look at McCray’s high school profile.
Avon High School
McCray graduated from Avon High School in Avon, Indiana, in 2022. This was the same high school Isaac Guerendo attended, the Louisville RB who garnered a bunch of attention following his incredible NFL Combine performance.
McCray was used heavily out of the backfield in his sophomore and junior seasons, rushing for over 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns between those two years. As a senior for Avon, McCray broke out as a receiver, finishing with 62 receptions for 1,337 yards and 18 touchdowns. He was also used in the return game and even threw a 67-yard touchdown pass as a senior. Chrishon was a 3-star prospect, according to ESPN, and signed to play with the Golden Flashes of Kent State.
Kent State (2022-23)
Chrishon appeared in one game during the 2022 season, ultimately redshirting that year. So this past season was his redshirt freshman campaign, and he immediately came out and earned WR1 honors in this Kent State offense. He amassed 41 receptions, 610 yards, and four touchdowns in just nine contests, leading this team in receptions and yards for 2023.
Unfortunately, McCray suffered an ankle injury vs. Akron on November 1st, sidelining him for the rest of the season. Had he avoided injury and played the full 12-game schedule, McCray was pacing for 55 receptions, 813 yards, and five touchdowns. His production earned him 2023 All-MAC First Team honors.
McCray has 73 targets in those nine games, averaging just over eight targets per week. His reception percentage of just 56.2% was due in large part to the quarterback play. Kent State shuffled through three quarterbacks in 2023, struggling to find consistency with anyone. All three signal-callers failed to even hit the 55% completion mark, making it difficult for the Golden Flashes to string together successful drives. Kenni Burns looks to turn the ship around after finishing 1-11 in his first season as head coach, and 0-8 in conference play.
Receiving Analytics
Let’s review some efficiency metrics for Chrishon in 2023, which underline why I’m excited about this kid as a potential NFL producer. I’ll briefly explain and break down each statistic and compare him to other top performers.
34.11% TPRR
TPRR stands for “targets per route run”. This is very telling of future fantasy success, as more targets equals more opportunities, which equals more fantasy points. McCray’s 34.11% TPRR would have been atop this 2024 WR draft class, ahead of guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. (32.39%) and Malik Nabers (29.7%). Obviously, the MAC isn’t the same as Power 5 competition, but Chrishon posted this mark in his first full collegiate season. It shows how much this offense trusted him as their playmaker.
2.87 YPRR
YPRR stands for “yards per route run”. It’s another analytic that tells us how efficient/productive a receiver is, although this is more dependent on QB performance. McCray’s 2.87 YPRR was closely in line with Rome Odunze (2.93), although Rome had two other NFL wide receivers to compete alongside. Anything above 3.0 YPRR is considered elite for wide receivers. I think McCray can easily clear this in 2024 with improved quarterback play.
89.4 PFF Receiving Grade
PFF graded McCray as the 6th best wide receiver in the FBS for 2023. He was just one spot behind MHJ (89.6). I do acknowledge that PFF grades can only be so objective, and because of this, they should carry less weight in our analytical models. But regardless, 6th in the country is pretty damn good.
10.96% Contested Target Rate
Contested target rate is a good indicator of how often a player is creating separation from their defenders. We are looking for a low contested target rate, telling us this prospect has the speed and route-running ability to excel at the NFL level. Anything under a 15% contested target rate should be considered elite. Compared to this 2024 WR class, only Jalen McMillan has a better contested target rate than McCray in 2023. For reference, MHJ had a 26.32% rate and Malik Nabers had a 17.19% rate.
75% Contested Catch Rate
Contested catch rate tells us how often a wide receiver pulls down those 50/50 balls. We want the contested targets to be low, but when contested, we want our receivers to pull in those jump balls. McCray caught 6/8 contested passes for a 75% mark, which is astounding. Anything over 50% should be considered very good overall. McCray’s 75% mark would have been tied for first in this 2024 class with Rome Odunze.
Scouting Report
McCray is listed at 5’10” and 163 lbs, a similar build to Texas’ WR Xavier Worthy. Obviously, we’d like to see him put on another 10 pounds in the next couple of years, but we’ve seen lighter guys carve out NFL roles more frequently in recent years. Given the measurables, it’s not surprising that McCray can turn on the burners when needed. He hit 21.2 mph in Week 1 against UCF, flashing his breakaway speed.
Chrishon wasn’t a big YAC guy last season, averaging just 5.2 yards after the catch and having only six broken tackles. He’ll likely need to put on some additional size and improve in this area of the game to begin receiving NFL attention. Seeing that he was a running back throughout high school, I believe he has some toughness and versatility in his game. His 13.7 aDOT tells us he wasn’t getting many manufactured touches, which I would consider a positive when looking for future fantasy assets.
I expect we’ll need to see two more seasons of superb production and efficiency before he can declare for the NFL Draft. Assuming he remains healthy, I’ll be looking for him to flirt with 1,000 receiving yards in 2024. That will be a tall task, considering the lack of passing volume in this offense. We’ll see if one of these quarterbacks can improve this offseason and emerge as a clear-cut starter to create stability in this offense.
Devy/Dynasty Value
Obviously, there’s no guarantee McCray sees NFL playing time in the future, let alone produces enough to hit our fantasy lineups. Still, being a MAC wide receiver has him flying entirely under the radar in the Devy community, which means you could grab him late in your supplemental drafts this offseason. If he doesn’t pan out, the cost of entry is minimal. But based on his efficiency level as a redshirt freshman, this is a dart throw I like making. He checked almost every analytical box last season and has the athleticism to be a potential producer at the next level. Stash him on your Devy rosters and keep tabs on this kid; he could be a surprising riser on 2026 NFL draft boards.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
