A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking “well, duh! Of course older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over nine parts (one part for each division and a rookie roundup after the draft), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
Some ground rules – so this series doesn’t take centuries, I’ll be evaluating one QB, one RB, one TE, and two WRs from each team, giving a total of 20 players every article. I’ll be posting their Redraft ADP (sourced from Underdog) and their dynasty ADP (sourced from AdeikoADP, @Adeiko_FF on Twitter). Since there isn’t a large enough sample size of Superflex ADP, I’ll evaluate by positional rank, not true ADP. For example, if I state that Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is QB1, that does not mean he is selected at the 1.01 in Redraft, that means he is the first QB taken off the board.
I’ll then give my pick – whether the player’s value lies closer to his Redraft ADP, his Dynasty ADP, or somewhere in the middle.
Let’s continue.
Indianapolis Colts
QB: ?*
RB: Jonathan Taylor
Redraft ADP: RB2
Dynasty ADP: RB3
- Not a big enough discrepancy to give any actionable advice besides that you should probably trade him for Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF), who is the current Dynasty RB2 (rookies not included).
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
TE: Jelani Woods
Redraft ADP: TE30
Dynasty ADP: TE20
- Dynasty ADP is certainly more accurate than Redraft here for a couple of reasons – he posted some alright peripherals (17% TPRR and 1.54 YPRR), but coming out of college he was an athletic freak (126 SPARQ) which the data seems to support has some correlation to NFL success. Along with this, he was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft which is solid enough draft capital to make him worth a dart throw at pick 20.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Michael Pittman
Redraft ADP: WR24
Dynasty ADP: WR18
- We mostly know what we have in Pittman at this point, so I think his value is about right here. In Dynasty, he benefits from being young, but I’d select a few wide receivers who go behind him in ADP. His value lies somewhere in the middle of these ADPs.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Alex Pierce
Redraft ADP: WR65
Dynasty ADP: WR50
- Roster clogger. Reroll for a second if you can. There’s a good chance someone in your league thinks his lack of success was the product solely of a Jeff Saturday-led offense and Sam Ehlinger (QB – IND) being horrible, not that Pierce just isn’t very good.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
*Indianapolis is expected to select a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Tennessee Titans
QB: Ryan Tannehill
Redraft ADP: Unlisted
Dynasty ADP: QB28
- There are not 27 better fantasy quarterbacks than Tannehill, who is a starting quarterback on a team that doesn’t seem to be addressing QB in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’s the cheapest QB2/3 you can have. 15.7 PPG isn’t great, but Tannehill was dealing with injury last year and a pretty horrendous offense in general that lacked a WR1 most of the season.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Derrick Henry
Redraft ADP: RB8
Dynasty ADP: RB16
- Henry is the prime example of a veteran RB having more internal value (ability to score fantasy points) than trade value (think KeepTradeCut points). His value is somewhere in the middle of these two ADPs but leans closer to Dynasty than Redraft. A great selection in the early seventh if you’re trying to score points, but if you’re building long-term, obviously you’d fade him at that price. However, I’ve seen Henry may fall to the 8th, 9th, or even 10th round in startups, which at that price is a smash.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Redraft ADP: TE15
Dynasty ADP: TE14
- Clearly, Redraft and Dynasty agree on his value. Not a counting-stats selection, but rather a peripheral selection, Okonkwo posted an astounding 2.60 YPRR and 26% TPRR in his rookie season. At this current price, he’s currently a buy. He has as good of a chance as any late-round tight end to hit, so I’m smashing in the 12th round.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Treylon Burks
Redraft ADP: WR37
Dynasty ADP: WR23
- The second cheapest of the first-round wide receivers, Burks had a respectable rookie season dealing with injury and poor quarterback play. His peripherals (18% TS, 21% TPRR, 1.75 YPRR) are all better than George Pickens (WR – PIT), yet he’s priced the same in Dynasty and Redraft even though his quarterback situation is roughly the same, he’s the WR1 on his team, his prospect grade was better, and he was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty ADP has this one by a mile.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Redraft ADP: Unlisted
Dynasty ADP: WR109
- Roster clogger. Don’t waste the pick on him.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
Jacksonville Jaguars
QB: Trevor Lawrence
Redraft ADP: QB8
Dynasty ADP: QB6
- His value lies in the middle of these two ADPs in my opinion, solely for the purpose that he’s being selected before Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL). Besides that, I have no complaints about his ADP.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: Travis Etienne
Redraft ADP: RB12
Dynasty ADP: RB6
- I’ve written extensively about Travis Etienne, so give this article a read for my full thoughts. I lean closer to Redraft than Dynasty solely because he doesn’t catch enough passes and he’s not as young as the community seems to think.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Evan Engram
Redraft ADP: TE7
Dynasty ADP: TE10
- Engram is coming off the second-best season of his career, but his PPG was still nothing meaningful despite being the TE5 in-season finish (TE7 in PPG). There’s not a ton of analysis I can do between the two ADPs as they’re quite similar, but the addition of Calvin Ridley (WR – JAX) does not bode well for Engram’s target share. I’d rather select a TE like Okonkwo two rounds later.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR1: Calvin Ridley
Redraft ADP: WR19
Dynasty ADP: WR29
- Ridley is severely underpriced. He was the WR4 in PPG the last full season he played and is 28 years old. He’s a talented player who’s not coming off an injury and whose situation looks fantastic. Redraft has this one-handedly.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR2: Christian Kirk
Redraft ADP: WR26
Dynasty ADP: WR31
- This seems to be a case of Dynasty managers discounting Christian Kirk for Calvin Ridley’s arrival and discounting Calvin Ridley because of the existence of Christian Kirk. Both players are talented and both players have a very talented QB throwing them the ball. If anyone’s targets are going to be eaten into, it will be Zay Jones’ (WR – JAX) or Evan Engram’s. Not everything needs in-depth analysis, but Kirk’s value is much closer to Redraft than Dynasty. However, he probably will not provide you with difference-making production but rather WR2 numbers. He will probably be a case of selecting him as the WR31 and him finishing as the WR24. If that sounds attractive to you, you can select him as depth for your roster.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
Houston Texans
QB: ?*
RB: Dameon Pierce
Redraft ADP: RB18
Dynasty ADP: RB15
- Redraft ADP is much closer to his value than Dynasty is. See @PaulDFF’s tweet for some thoughts on Pierce.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Dalton Schultz
Redraft ADP: TE11
Dynasty ADP: TE9
- As we all know, if you’re not a top-three tight end in fantasy football, you don’t matter all that much in terms of difference-making production. Schultz falls into the bucket of non-difference-making production. His value is about exactly where it should be in terms of ADP, even now with his move to Houston which @bwinknfl breaks down here.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR1: Robert Woods
Redraft ADP: WR85
Dynasty ADP: WR81
- While he doesn’t have a ton of upside, Woods has the chance to provide WR2-3 numbers as he has before on the LA Rams. The move to Tennessee last season destroyed Woods’ value and his production, but hopefully QB stability, even with a rookie QB, should provide Woods with the opportunity to produce points again.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Nico Collins
Redraft ADP: WR79
Dynasty ADP: WR60
- The dream of Nico Collins has been long dead, and there’s no reason he should be priced above his teammate. He’s a roster clogger who only has his youth going for him.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
*Houston is expected to select a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft.
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