NFL teams every single year find themselves in one of two camps at this time. Those that have their Quarterback for the future and those that do not. Those that don’t are frequently tasked with drafting a quarterback, one of the most challenging parts of a General Manager’s job in the NFL. Over the years we have had plenty of decisions that get questioned for years to come. Ken O’Brien over Dan Marino or Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, the differences these selections make are truly franchise-altering decisions. This process is mimicked often in the Dynasty Football space as we sit and try to evaluate the talent and project how they will perform at the NFL level. Longevity is an important trait of Quarterbacks taken in the first round of our Superflex rookie drafts like NFL teams. We may tend in the Fantasy circles to like mobile Quarterbacks a bit more than the NFL thanks to their rushing floor but mostly want the same things NFL teams want in signal callers. Sometimes we hit, Andrew Luck was exactly what we thought he was coming out of college. Sometimes we miss though. Today’s two cases we will discuss that we as a community were wrong on.
I know many people that were on the right side of history with one or both of these prospects but this isn’t about victory laps or calling people out. This is about the process of evaluating rookie quarterbacks and seeing where the potential pitfalls might lie.
Zach Wilson
Coming out of college, many NFL scouts and Dynasty managers were blown away by Wilson’s film from his final year of college. The young gunslinger had a hand cannon for an arm and produced several clips that put jaws on the floor. His ADP in Superflex rookie drafts in 2021 was seventh overall but where he went in drafts varied. He went anywhere from 1.02 to the early second round. In a class as good as the one Wilson was in, these were premium picks. Other first-round talents that year included Justin Fields, Ja’Marr Chase, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Kyle Pitts, and Travis Ettiene. Taking Zach Wilson in your first round had a major cost.
Many people thought he could be the next big thing. The hype following his rookie preseason was huge. After being selected 2nd overall, Zach Wilson was the future for an organization that had been struggling to find the quarterback of the future. Looking at the top of that NFL draft board reveals some talented names that Wilson was taken ahead of, not just the names we listed in dynasty drafts. Players like Patrick Surtain II and Micah Parsons could have also been available for the Jets at 1.02 in the 2021 NFL Draft.
In hindsight, it is easy to criticize the Jets and all the truthers in the dynasty community that fell in love with the arm talent. I will take my “L” here as well. I have a lot of shares of Zach Wilson whom I had ranked as my QB2 in that class. How much better some of my dynasty teams could be had I not taken Wilson, I will never know.
Jalen Hurts
Our second case study here goes in the opposite direction as our first. Everyone knows the story of Jalen Hurts’ college career. Benched at Alabama for a young Tua Tagovailoa in the National Championship game. After sitting on the bench the whole following season, Hurts had to come in for the injured Tua in the SEC title game and led a comeback. Following that season he would transfer to Oklahoma and produced a playoff appearance that was ended by an LSU team that had more NFL talent than just about any I have ever seen. Despite this fantastic story, NFL scouts were not convinced of his arm talent. So Jalen Hurts dropped into the second round where the Eagles were criticized by some for the pick there with Carson Wentz already on the roster.
In Dynasty rookie drafts, Jalen Hurts also dropped. He was QB5 in his rookie class behind even Jordan Love. In Superflex leagues, he was available in the back half of the second round into the early third. I even had a league where he was as late as 3.09. If anything he had a bit of a boost to his stock thanks to his high-end rushing ability and he was still an afterthought in those drafts. He didn’t have the arm talent and wouldn’t be successful in this league is what we were all told and we bought in.
Even going into last season Jalen Hurts was not solidified as the long-term solution at quarterback for the Eagles. When the Eagles picked up an extra first-round pick in 2023 from the Saints, the thought was they could use the extra capital to be in a position to draft his replacement in the 2023 NFL Draft. I would be willing to shove my entire savings account down on a wager saying they will not use either of their first-round picks on a quarterback.
What Can We Learn?
When we take a look at Zach Wilson’s time so far in the NFL we see some worrisome attributes. The distractions off the field involving his mother’s friend, the lack of accountability after the loss to the Patriots this season, along with the complete loss of faith in him from his teammates. Meanwhile, when you look at Jalen Hurts, his development as a passer has come from hours of effort improving his craft. He has also proven to be a leader whom the whole team draws from. There is a clip of Nick Sirianni giving them an extra day off after a big win and Hurts just shook his head. He wants the extra work. He wants to be great.
We have always known that Quarterback is more than just the physical tools. If physical tools were the only thing that matter then perhaps Jay Cutler would be the GOAT and Tom Brady would be a name on true died hards and fans of the University of Michigan knew. We know this yet we still get blown away by the film and pro days and the combine and all the other mess. That stuff is certainly useful. Cases like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence have shown that. Other case studies make this more tricky. Marcus Mariota passed all his interview and intelligence checks with flying colors, yet could not put it together on the field despite all the talent. He was missing the confidence of a guy that can take over a league. Then we have the overly confident cases like the aforementioned Zach Wilson as well as guys like Baker Mayfield and Johnny Manziel. Yet a guy like Tom Brady is known for his confidence on the line of arrogance. Introduced himself to Drew Bledsoe as “the guy that’s gonna take your job.”
So what is the secret sauce that makes a great NFL Quarterback? I am beginning to wonder if we can even define it. This year we have four Quarterbacks that will be discussed and broken down in every way possible to find out which ones possess which traits physically and mentally. Everyone will have their rankings and reasons why but this year I am going to zoom out a bit with a perspective of missed evaluations from the past. Finding the guy that becomes the Patrick Mahomes instead of Mitchell Trubisky is franchise-altering in the NFL but also has a massive impact on our dynasty leagues as well. This year try to pay attention to the stuff you won’t see on a scouting report. Listen to press confirms and interviews. It is more than just measurables when we are discussing this position in particular. I wish I could give you an exact formula but there isn’t one. This is not just drafting a prospect though, this is drafting the leader of an organization and the potential future of a franchise.
Thanks so much for reading, if you want to discuss more my DMs on Twitter are open, find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, Devy, and IDP.
