Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust to the market to avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.
ROOKIE QB VALUE REVIEW
Rookie quarterbacks are among the most stable assets in Superflex dynasty leagues. Market consensus is slow to adjust, if at all, on rookie quarterbacks with high NFL draft capital attached to their names. Abysmal production from any other position would face a tragic decline in perceived value in dynasty rankings.
The entire fantasy football community watched a litany of ragged performances from the NFL’s newest generation of field generals. However, when viewing the past and present value of rookie quarterbacks entering the second season, we see virtually no change.
With the 2022 NFL Draft closing in, managers are wary of investing their rookie picks into this year’s class of quarterbacks. Although the top-end talent lacks in comparison to previous years, there are at least two quarterbacks expected to receive top-15 draft capital. Take DFF’s SF TEP Rookie Mock Draft as an example. Without the knowledge of draft capital to support player analysis, a quarterback was not selected until pick 1.06.
Historical value trends tell us the likelihood of a quarterback maintaining value after their rookie season is high. In contrast, other positions are subject to extreme volatility due to draft placement and first-year performance. Managers that willingly fade quarterbacks in their upcoming rookie drafts are forfeiting the chance at a stable, high-value asset.
In this edition of Dynasty Market Sweep, we will analyze the year-to-year value trends of the 2021 rookie quarterback class.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
STABLE
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Position Rank:
February 2021 – QB8
February 2022 – QB9
Overall Rank:
February 2021 – 12
February 2022 – 26
Trevor Lawrence Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Trevor Lawrence was dubbed the next great generational talent at quarterback before ever taking an NFL snap. A stunning collegiate profile ensured Lawrence as a surefire franchise cornerstone for the Jaguars.
The number one overall pick disappointed in all aspects of the game. Lawrence was immediately thrust into a negative situation while operating under the poisonous tutelage of now-fired head coach Urban Meyer. Lawrence’s putrid rookie season fell well below expectations, yet the dynasty market has barely adjusted. Lawrence’s overall value took a slight drop out of the top-12 dynasty assets. However, he remains entrenched in the QB1 tier. The Jaguars made quick moves to improve coaching for Lawrence’s second season. Former Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson takes hold of the clipboard for the Jaguars as their new head coach.
With a new front office and several high picks to work with for the 2022 NFL Draft, the Jaguars will look to build a winning culture with Lawrence as the focal point. Managers have extended their leash with Lawrence during the growing pains of his inaugural NFL campaign. The golden-locked gunslinger remains a highly sought-after dynasty asset with a wide range of future outcomes.
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
Mark Andrews TE (BAL)
D.K. Metcalf WR (SEA)
Tee Higgins WR (CIN)
Davante Adams WR (GB)
Austin Ekeler RB (LAC)
Value Adjacent QB
Kyler Murray (ARI)
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Trey Lance (SF)
Justin Fields (CHI)
Russell Wilson (SEA)
FALLER
Zach Wilson (NYJ)
Position Rank:
February 2021 – QB12
February 2022 – QB16
Overall Rank:
February 2021 – 38
February 2022 – 63
Zach Wilson Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Managers were not as lenient with 2021’s second overall pick. Zach Wilson’s positional and overall value has taken meaningful hits after the rookie quarterback’s first season. However, this drop in perceived value does not fully reflect Wilson’s horrendous production (or lack thereof). Many felt Wilson’s hype entering the 2021 NFL Draft was unwarranted. As you may recall, Wilson ascended the collective ranks after a single incredible highlight during his pro day for BYU.
Wilson has shown glimpses of similar highlight reel capabilities at the NFL level. Still, he has been unable to string together consistent success on a play-to-play basis, let alone for an entire season.
At his current value of QB16 overall, Wilson is a tempting trade target for managers willing to gamble on the electric young quarterback. If Wilson finds a way to string his highlight-friendly talent together consistently, he could become one of the league’s deadliest field-stretchers. There is inherent risk when investing stock in Wilson, but the payoff is scintillating.
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
Michael Pittman WR (IND)
2023 Late First Round Draft Pick
2022 Early First Round Draft Pick
Josh Jacobs RB (LV)
Elijah Mitchell RB (SF)
Value Adjacent QB
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Mac Jones (NE)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
RISER
Trey Lance (SF)
Position Rank:
February 2021 – QB19
February 2022 – QB7
Overall Rank:
February 2021 – 63
February 2022 – 13
Trey Lance Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Theoretical Value > Proven Production. Trey Lance provides a striking illustration of the sustained stability of rookie quarterbacks as dynasty investments. Lance’s athletic profile has propelled him up the dynasty ranks despite playing in just six games in 2021.
Truthfully, Lance’s entire player profile is an ever-growing database of incomplete/small sample quantities. Lance played 19 games during his three-year collegiate career at North Dakota State. He started in two games for the 49ers during 2021, throwing for just 441 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The intrigue lies within what Lance can do on the ground, not through the air. During those two starts, Lance combined for 120 rushing yards on 24 carries. The 49ers implement a disciplined run-first approach, with deceiving options and pre-snap motion. Lance’s unique blend of size and athletic skill set is precisely why the organization traded the farm for the rights to draft him at third overall.
Managers are already anticipating a significant leap from Lance in year two. With Jimmy Garoppolo soon shipped out of town, nothing is standing in Lance’s path to elite fantasy production.
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
Kyle Pitts TE (ATL)
D’Andre Swift RB (DET)
Javonte Williams RB (DEN)
Najee Harris RB (PIT)
A.J. Brown WR (TEN)
Value Adjacent QB
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Kyler Murray (ARI)
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Justin Fields (CHI)
STABLE
Justin Fields (CHI)
Position Rank:
February 2021 – QB11
February 2022 – QB10
Overall Rank:
February 2021 – 32
February 2022 – 28
Justin Fields Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Justin Fields gives us another example of value stability at the quarterback position. Fields’ rise in value makes little sense considering the outcome of his rookie season.
Much like Trey Lance, Fields’ presumed upside comes from a propensity to take off from behind the line of scrimmage for a monster gain at any given moment. Fields rushed for 420 yards in 12 games, ranked fifth overall amongst quarterbacks in 2021. Fields did struggle with accuracy and ball placement throughout his rookie year. He completed 58.9% of his pass attempts in 2021, with issues at all three levels. Fields completed just 57.8% of passes in the red zone and ranked 34th with a true completion percentage of 62.8%. Despite inefficiencies as a passer, dynasty managers continue to buy into Fields as an elite asset. This may reflect market consensus overvaluing rushing upside in quarterbacks or youth-driven team building. Whatever the case may be, Fields’ existing value is at an all-time high with no signs of declining in the immediate future.
RISER
Mac Jones (NE)
Position Rank:
February 2021 – QB22
February 2022 – QB15
Overall Rank:
February 2021 – 99
February 2022 – 52
Mac Jones Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
In the first 15 picks of the 2021 NFL Draft, five quarterbacks were selected. Of those five quarterbacks, only one finished in the top 20 in fantasy scoring at the position (Mac Jones QB19). Jones’ value remains below three of his four first-round draft mates, despite performing better than anyone in the group.
Finishing ahead of the other rookies in this class gave Jones a significant boost in his overall value but did nothing to elevate him above the QB2 tier. His lackadaisical game-management style keeps the ceiling of production low. Jones’ mobility is strictly limited to inside the pocket. He rushed for just 129 yards in 2021 and does not possess the “Konami-Code” upside of his counterparts.
Playing for the Patriots and Bill Belichick puts Jones in an ideal situation for improvement and sustained success in his sophomore season. His playstyle might not make for the most exciting fantasy asset to invest in, but Jones’ worth as a consistent and young option in Superflex leagues is undeniable.
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
DeVonta Smith WR (PHI)
Derrick Henry RB (TEN)
Travis Kelce TE (KC)
Travis Etienne RB (JAX)
Cam Akers RB (LAR)
Value Adjacent QB
Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Zach Wilson (NYJ)
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor.
“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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For previous articles in this series, click here: Dynasty Market Sweep, Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2, Dynasty Market Sweep: Addressing the Age Cliff, Dynasty Market Sweep: Coaching Changes – Dynasty Football Factory.
