Hello Darkness My Old Friend
All-Pro tight end George Kittle’s on-field influence is undeniable. Unfortunately, he won’t be suiting up again until Week 7, at the earliest. A soft-tissue injury to Kittle’s calf has resulted in a surprising three-game stint on injured reserve after playing 92% of the 49ers’ snaps against the Seahawks in Week 4. It was unclear when Kittle sustained the damage.
Kittle is no stranger to the injury report, having played an entire season only once in his five-year career. After being listed as a non-participant for three consecutive practices, the 49ers elected to shut down Kittle until their November 7th rematch against the Cardinals.
The loss of a megastar talent such as Kittle is irreplaceable. Now that the 49ers have a game under their belts without their starting tight end, we better understand how they will operate in the arriving weeks.
Redraft Impact
Vacated targets are a myth. Kittle ranked second on the 49ers in targets (29) through four games of 2021. He leads all tight ends in 2021 with a 93.5% snap share while receiving 24.1% of the 49ers’ pass attempts. His absence leaves a massive opportunity void on this offense through the air, or so we assumed. The 49ers are averaging 29.5 pass attempts per game this season. In their Week 5 matchup against the Cardinals, the 49ers passed 29 times. Deebo Samuel was the only pass-catcher to be targeted more than five times. Targets are earned. No other receiver for the 49ers has proven to be deserving.
Deebo is averaging 21.8 PPR fantasy points per game in 2021, ranked as WR3 in PPG. Kittle has had little to no bearing on Deebo’s fantasy production. In four games played with Kittle, Deebo led the team in targets (42), receptions (28), receiving yards (490), and receiving touchdowns (3). He is the number one offensive option on the team in 2021 regardless of position. He should continue to return high-end WR1 numbers, especially with the sputtering development of Brandon Aiyuk raising red flags.
A promising second-year wide receiver, Aiyuk is considered droppable in Redraft leagues by most fantasy managers. Currently WR94 on the season, he is averaging a despicable 4.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Even with Kittle out, the sophomore received only four targets for two receptions in Week 5. Aiyuk’s development has taken a seismic leap backward after an outstanding rookie campaign. According to PlayerProfiler, he is running a route on only 67.2% of pass plays for the 49ers in 2021, ranked 77th for wide receivers. His usage has dipped to a dramatically low 9.2% team target share while being targeted on just 12.0% of his total routes. The hope was that Aiyuk would be featured more with Kittle sidelined and Trey Lance under center. That certainly was not the case in Week 5. I am stubbornly holding onto my shares of Aiyuk, but I understand the appeal of sending him to waivers.
The 49ers funneled most of Kittle’s volume into their 2021 first-round rookie quarterback. The future face of the franchise got his first planned start under center in Week 5. Lance was afforded no easy matchup in his debut, facing a top-10 pass defense in the Cardinals. Struggling to find a rhythm through the air, the rookie quarterback rushed 16 times for 89 yards. Lance’s athleticism was on full display in designed runs and on the move outside of the pocket.
Veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is also sidelined with a calf issue with no clear timetable for return. Lance may be merely an interim option until Jimmy G is healthy. Should head coach Kyle Shanahan make the switch permanently, every member of this 49ers offense could see decreased volume at the hands of Lance’s selfish play style. His rushing floor is solid, but Kittle’s absence will indeed hinder Lance’s passing output for as long as he remains under center.
Trying to project usage splits in Shanahan’s running back room from week to week is like trying to catch smoke in a net. Regardless of which back is the flavor of the week, their production is minimally affected by Kittle’s injury. The 49ers’ running backs will be more affected by the lack of handoffs from Lance than any injuries.
Substitute tight end Ross Dwelley enters the streaming territory. He has shown positive production in the past when asked to be a spot starter for the 49ers and will likely be a waiver target for tight end-needy managers this week. Taper expectations on Dwelley until Lance proves to be a more capable passer.
Kittle is expected to make a full return once eligible. His elite-level output and usage warrant a hold until he is removed from IR.
Dynasty Impact
I’ll reiterate the statement above. Please do not move on from Kittle at his lowest value. At 28 years old, Kittle is in his peak window for tight end production. The 49ers star fits the bill for all builds in dynasty. He should be viewed as a top-five asset at the position, despite his current placement on IR. Kittle has several top-end seasons left if he can remain healthy. If there is a manager desperate to win now in your leagues, I suggest making an offer for Kittle while the panic is at a peak.
There is established trust between Kittle and the 49ers organization that is unlikely to be broken by a three-game absence. The front office inked the tight end to a massive extension this offseason, signing Kittle for five years and $75M. His continued high-quality play will be paramount in the success of the franchise.
A cause for mass hysteria in season-long formats, Brandon Aiyuk is an attractive buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues. Aiyuk is only 23 years old and showed consistent success in his rookie season. He led all rookie wide receivers with five weekly finishes in the WR1 tier in 2020. I have referenced his historic route tree success rates from Brandon Aiyuk 2020 Player Profile | Reception Perception in my previous DFF: Fantasy Fact or Cap – Dynasty Football Factory article. I refuse to believe his year-one success to be an aberration. Hold tight if you roster Aiyuk in dynasty leagues. As a young investment with past success, he is worth more than the perceived market value.
(Contract Data Via: George Kittle Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac)
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff. Stay up to date on all of my content on Linktree: @PsychWardFF.
Join me and the #DFFArmy to keep in step with exclusive fantasy football content by clicking HERE. #AlwaysBeBuilding
