Kyle Pitts Managers, R-E-L-A-X
For all of you freaking out about Kyle Pitts’s performance so far this season, let’s take a page out of Aaron Rodgers’s playbook and relax. Kyle Pitts is a physical beast. Let’s start this conversation off with that fact. There’s never been a prospect like him coming out of the college ranks and I was lucky enough to write about him when his name was called in April. His production was out of this world as a Florida Gator and while he has yet to see that type of output in the NFL, this week versus the Jets is when we’ll see why Atlanta used the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on him. “But Heady, you say, he is only the 18th best tight end in fantasy right now!” Keyphrase my mafiosos, “right now”, after this week, he should be well on his way to a top-10 finish on the year. He is a sure-fire start for me in all formats, someone you do not want to sleep on and I am here to tell you why.
The elephant in the room as to why we will see elite production is Calvin Ridley, who will not be suiting up for the Falcons this Sunday in London due to a personal matter. In addition, Russell Gage will not be playing for Atlanta. That leaves Matt Ryan with the passing options of Cordarrelle Patterson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Christian Blake (who?), Hayden Hurst, Frank Darby, and your boy, Kyle Pitts. Needless to say, if that doesn’t make you excited then I ask you this; are you dead inside?
The Numbers
As they say, numbers don’t lie. Now granted, we can twist those however we want to but don’t worry for I’m regarded as the best twister player here at DFF, so let’s get to it. On the season, while the Falcons have targeted the tight end only 26% of the time on pass plays, we must remember that Kyle isn’t being lined up as a traditional tight end most of the time. For the season, he has lined up in the slot 32.7% of the time. With Gage and Ridley being out, we can expect him to be lined up off the line closer to 50% of the time, which will immediately bump his target share up. Additionally, Kyle is top-10 in air yards per target among tight ends (8.4), so with the top two wide receivers out of the equation that can only mean we should see a lion’s share of those targets coming his way.
Speaking of target share, Pitts has seen roughly 22% of the red zone targets for Atlanta on the year which is top-10 already for his position. Calvin Ridley sees over 25% and Patterson sees roughly 15%. With Ridley being out along with Gage, it is a very safe bet that Pitts and Patterson will be the primary targets in the red zone on Sunday.
So, we know that Pitts will more than likely be the “man” for Matt Ryan on Sunday morning but what about that Jets defense? Isn’t the fact that they are one of the best against the pass (top-12 in yards and top-15 for passer rating) a cause for concern? Normally, I would say yes but when you look deeper into why that is, you will see why the Jets should not be considered a nuisance for passing offenses. It’s because they are atrocious against the run, ranking in the bottom third in every category while giving up 33.38 points a game to opposing running backs in fantasy, so teams aren’t passing against them. But there is a good reason for this; look at the Jets’ schedule. They played the Panthers in Week 1, Titans last week, then the Broncos, and Patriots in between. Newsflash, we don’t consider these teams passing juggernauts, so naturally, they would have the stats that could make someone believe they are stout against the pass and atrocious versus the run.
Last but not least, the reason why Kyle Pitts should be a sure-fire start this week against the Jets is because of Matt Ryan. No, that’s not a typo. Matt, flipping, Ryan. After being an afterthought the first couple weeks of the season, over the past two weeks, he checks in as the ninth-best quarterback in fantasy, tossing for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns per game. With that being said, New York is a bottom-half team in pass defense efficiency on the year, and on the road, quarterbacks have a 103.1 passer rating. Say it with me, Matt Ryan is a good start this week. Keep saying it and we can LaVar Ball this into existence.
At the end of the day, starting a rookie tight end is never a fun thing to do in fantasy as they traditionally don’t have solid campaigns in their first season, however, fear not. Kyle Pitts is not your traditional rookie tight end. While Kyle has only produced as the 18th best tight end in PPR formats, he has yet to find the end zone and that will change on Sunday. I’m forecasting a huge game from him in the range of eight receptions for 73 yards and at least one touchdown. Start him.
Fantasy Impact
Overall, if you have Kyle Pitts as your tight end, you are starting him every week unless you have one of the top six players. For dynasty purposes, I’m holding on to Kyle Pitts like a starving man on a Christmas ham. Barring injury, this will be his worst season until he begins to contemplate retirement. Redraft-wise, when he blows up this week, and if I’m already in the playoff hunt, I would shop him a little to see if I can get a top 30 wide receiver or top 24 running back in return. The rationale behind this is because if you were already in contention without Kyle Pitts producing then you’ll be fine without him.
In addition, who knows what happens when Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage come back. So getting that extra running back or wide receiver could secure a deep playoff push because the difference between TE7 and TE20 on average is only 2.6 ppg (basically anyone on the waiver wire). While the odds of finding a quality running back or wide receiver on the waiver wire are slim to none. Think Antonio Gibson or Adam Thielen. If you can’t get that value then keep him and expect around 7.5 to 11.5 ppg with a touchdown every so often, which isn’t great but it’s serviceable at the position.
As always my Heady Mafia, thanks for taking the time to read this article. If you have more questions, comments, or just want to express your love, reach out to me on Twitter. But most importantly come back to the DFF for all of your fantasy football needs. Until next time!
