I am prepared to say that after around almost 20 years of playing fantasy football, I have never been more wrong on any single take than I was on Brandon Aiyuk vs. Deebo Samuel. In last week’s column, I said that I felt comfortable trusting Aiyuk from here on out. Sigh. It is almost as frustrating as watching Trevor Lawrence take a step forward last Thursday while I pondered just how heavy the Chark damage would be. Somebody referred to James Robinson as a bowling ball of a running back, and I would have to agree after watching how he broke Chark’s foot on the second play of the game. Sigh. Pretty soon these sighs will become screams!
Oh well. I’m still crushing in dynasty and I really do have a lot of really strong redraft teams, though there are about 10/36 that are probably completely toast and I have sorted them to the bottom of my priority list.
RESULTS
FFPC 1QB Dynasty Legacy Teams: My oldest 1QB FFPC team got its third win and had the second-highest score for the week and sitting at 10 Victory Points (VP). My two startups from this year are underperforming and I have moved them into the ‘nope’ category for competitiveness. Going to keep setting my lineups and scouring the wire. They are too strong to tear down. I will look for value in trades but otherwise moving those two teams down my list.
FFPC SuperFlex Dynasty Legacy Teams: Two championship teams from last year where one is 4-0 and crushing (15 VPs) and the other is 2-2 and competing with 9 VPs but currently 1 VP behind the playoff pace. I have one other team from last year that is the highest-scoring team in the league but sitting in the 4 seed because duh, it’s fantasy football. Two out of my three startups from this year are at 11 VPs, one is the #3 seed and the other is the #5 seed despite being the third-highest scoring team in the league.
FFPC 1QB Dynasty Orphan Project Teams: The best of these is sitting at nine VPs in the #3 seed. I have three other teams that are within three or four VPs of a playoff seed and there are still ten weeks to go and they have strong cores. Heaters are imminent in the second quarter of the season.
FFPC SuperFlex Dynasty Orphan Project Teams: The best of these is 4-0 with 16 VPs. I have one at 3-1 with 12 VPs as the #3 seed. I have another that is #3 overall in points scored but sitting with eight VPs in the #6 seed currently. I have one team that has eight VPs and is currently losing the tiebreaker for the #6 seed. I have seven other squads that are within four VPs or less of a playoff seed and there is a lot of season left. None of them are worth pulling the plug on. Except one, which is remarkable because it is a team I paid a premium for and expected to be a very strong competitor. It is 0-4 with 0 VPs and has scored just 379 points through four weeks. But it has strong young pieces and there isn’t much to blow up. But it gets knocked down my list of priority squads. Allen Robinson might be a piece I try to move for future draft capital. We’ll see. I have one other squad that is five VPs back from the playoffs but just had the high score of the week and I think it can go on a run.
FFPC Redraft Tourneys: The Chark damage is real. Aiyuk is the worst call I’ve ever made. Fields and Ryan Fitzpatrick gave me 5.45 total fantasy points between Weeks 1 and 3, in several leagues. The worst part is that I am really wasting some great stacks otherwise. The WR graveyard of these teams is enough to bury their whole squad though.
Gonna keep balling on those teams that are doing great. I’m nowhere near any season-long leaderboard but I’m putting up really good weeks. Second-quarter of the season and heaters are imminent.
WAIVERS WEEK 5
Here are a few players I am targeting this week:
QB: Not much here in SF, Lock went in a few leagues but Bridgewater may start anyway
RB: Damien Williams $$, Khalil Herbert $, Alex Collins $
WR: Whatever WR with a pulse that I might need and is available
TE: Tyler Conklin, Maxx Williams, C.J. Uzomah, Cameron Brate
After the injury to David Montgomery, I picked up Herbert in as many leagues as I could. I already have Williams in a lot of leagues and I did pick him up in one this week. I probably overpaid for Herbert, though, using between $55 and $144 on him in several spots, in both redraft and dynasty. It is an expensive speculative add as he has not earned a fantasy-relevant role just yet. But I think Williams will be the one back on the roster they trust the most in passing situations, and although he is certain to dominate early touches, there is still room for Herbert to carve a meaningful role. And if he flashes or if DW gets banged up, he could be worth something.
RECENT TRADES
Mine: I made one of the more interesting trades I’ve made in a long time. It was relatively simple and straightforward, but the timing brought some interesting flavor to it. One of my championship SF teams from last year has a bit of a surplus at RB but not a decent second QB behind Patrick Mahomes. I put James Robinson and a couple of other RBs on the trade block and had a couple of nibbles. Prior to last Thursday night’s game where Robinson put up 20.6 points, I sent an offer to a league mate that consisted of my Robinson for his Teddy Bridgewater and a 2022 second-round rookie pick.
I typically don’t let trade offers linger out there when a player is active in a game that is live. I had James Robinson in my starting lineup and after the game was over the trade was accepted. Which meant I got to use those 20.6 points that week but I wouldn’t be able to roster or use Bridgewater until this week when the trade finally processed. Naturally, Bridgewater suffered a concussion after the trade had been accepted, though it looks like he will clear the protocol and be healthy to play. But, this serves as a cautionary tale and reminder about why we often don’t like having trades hanging out there when we don’t know if the players involved will survive the current game.
Theirs: As I type this I see someone moved Derrick Henry in a single QB league for a future first, second, and third. I had an offer in my box from the same owner of Henry for two of my future firsts but I declined. I probably would have paid a first, second, and third, though. The juiciest trade I have seen this week happened earlier today, in a SF league. Christian McCaffrey and two future second-round picks for Mike Evans, Josh Jacobs, and two future first-round picks.
FF GAMESMANSHIP
Overcoming injuries has been more challenging than ever before this season. For me at least. I know others have struggled, too. Now that I have a fair measure of clarity on the competitiveness of each of my teams, there are a few priorities for me as I move forward. One is to spend some time shopping assets and looking for values throughout my dynasty leagues. If there is a negative trade-off that a large portfolio owner like myself has to try and mitigate, it is the lack of significant time to really deep dive into specific rosters and situations. It is probably fair to assume I have missed out on some value because I missed out on trading opportunities that have existed. But it is also possible that I don’t need to fix what isn’t broken.
Although there have been some big surprises, I could not be more pleased with the way my dynasty portfolio is shaping up this season. Including the projects. In redraft, I stand to do very well, and I am hoping that I can get two out of the 10 teams I have declared dead to actually come back and rise again. It is the second quarter of the season and Halloween is soon! Zombie heaters are imminent! I’m looking at you, Justin Fields. Daddy needs some Konami Code upside to hit.
Never give up and let’s keep balling folks!
Thanks for reading! Feel free to reach out to me to chat about fantasy football on Twitter @Ship_Chaser and follow along with me on my journey as I chase six-figure paydays! Look for my new articles soon!
