Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and in this series of articles, I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of each week in your redraft league. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell or if I think their value will decrease soon he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. I will attempt to have the format consistently be a buy and sell for each position but that may increase or decrease depending on the week.

I do not want to put a QB or TE on my list just to fill the space if they do not truly deserve it. So, you can trust that all of the players I will talk about are relevant. In this series, I will be assuming full PPR 12 team leagues. The number of flex starters will not affect this information very much but if you have a super deep league you can always hit me up on Twitter for those deeper guys. And with that said let us dive right into the Week 3 Buys and Sells.

Quarterbacks

Buy – Daniel Jones, QB NY Giants

To me, Daniel Jones has been the surprise of the year at QB. He currently sits at number five in points per game and this cannot be ignored. He has achieved this through his rushing volume, which was on display in 2020, but 2021 has brought us a better Daniel Jones. I’m sure people will still sell him relatively cheap because of his name. But, with Golladay still getting integrated into the offense and Engram and Saquon nursing injuries, the Giants offense has not been great. If this team can start to score more touchdowns and become more efficient we could see Jones finish in the top 10 at the position.

Sell – Tom Brady, QB TB Buccaneers

Tom Brady has thrown nine touchdowns in two weeks on 86 pass attempts. This gives him a touchdown rate of 10.5% which is just astronomical. Even with these crazy touchdown numbers, he is only six points higher than the current QB7, Lamar Jackson. To be a top-tier fantasy QB you need rushing upside. Tom Brady has only run for six yards and will not be throwing four-plus touchdowns every week. He could still finish the season in the top 12 but if you can sell him at the QB3 that he is right now you should do it. Even if it’s a downgrade to someone like Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr plus a FLEX player. Gaining that FLEX player will be worth it once Brady returns to Earth.

Running Backs

Buy – Mike Davis, RB ATL Falcons

If you listen to the herd you will hate seeing this take, but give me a chance. I was looking at the league leaders in weighted opportunities, a very useful stat for determining true running back volume, and I noticed something shocking. Sitting in between D’Andre Swift (5th in the league) and Alvin Kamara (7th) was Mike Davis. He is sixth on the list of weighted opportunities among the league’s RBs. Just to give a better sense of the list, it goes: Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Swift, Davis, Kamara. That is elite workhorse company. While Davis may not be as efficient as those other guys, the fact that he is seeing that much work is something we should be chasing. Especially when he has been underperforming in the touchdown column and owners are ready to sell cheap.

Sell – Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL Cowboys

I was very excited for Zeke this season, I thought he could return to his 2018-2019 ways and be a true workhorse for a good offense. He has let us down. Tony Pollard is too involved in the offense and he even looks better than Zeke when watching the games. People will still buy Zeke at a decent price due to his name but I am selling now before Pollard takes over the backfield.

Wide Receivers

Buy – D.K. Metcalf, WR SEA Seahawks

D.K. Metcalf has had a pretty disappointing start to the 2021 season and it does not help that he is being heavily outshone by his teammate, Tyler Lockett. Lockett has 29 ppg while Metcalf only has 13.7 so far. This is very misleading with respect to D.K. and his potential. Lockett is currently top five in the NFL in target share at 30.8%. However, D.K. Metcalf just happens to be tied with him and is 5th in the NFL, at 30.8%. Do not let the early touchdowns and fantasy points fool you. These receivers are equals in this offense and the points will even out over the season as well. Go get some Metcalf.

Sell – Deebo Samuel, WR SF 49ers

Deebo has been a mega-producer to start the season in this healthy 9ers offense, but some weird things have also been happening. Aiyuk has been in Shanahan’s doghouse and that could end any moment; he is very fickle. The team has seen many RB injuries since Week 1 started. Also, the 9ers are bottom three in the NFL in terms of TE target share. With George Kittle leading this group, I bet that regresses to the mean. All things considered, Deebo has been great. However, I would be shocked to see him as a top 12 WR at the end of the season. If you can move him for that kind of price, I suggest you do it.

Tight Ends

Buy – George Kittle, TE SF 49ers

As I talked about above, Deebo has been dominating the 49ers’ targets and they have not been throwing the ball much to the tight end. As we know George Kittle is very good, these numbers will improve. The Kittle owner may be panicking, especially if he started 0-2 and wants to start grabbing some wins. Maybe Kittle can’t help him do that, well we will gladly take him off your hands. Send out feelers for Kittle and see if you can get anyone to bite.

Sell – Rob Gronkowski, TE TB Buccaneers

Rob Gronk is currently leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns. He is doing this on four red-zone targets, for four red-zone receptions, which resulted in four touchdowns. This is unsustainable. While Gronk will be a high upside play all year, I would rather have someone with a higher target share and a higher weekly floor. If you can move Gronk for like Goedert or Fant plus a FLEX player that is a great move.

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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