Welcome back for my five biggest Dynasty rookie fades relative to ADP. If you missed my last article covering my five biggest targets, you can check that out here. To show you how I value these players versus the market, I’ll provide my current ranking of each prospect and the prospect’s market ADP, according to Dynasty Data Lab. You can customize the settings on their site, so I set the following parameters:
- Rookie Drafts from April 24 to present (no pre-NFL Draft ADP)
- Full PPR
- 0.5 – 1.5 Tight End Premium (TEP)
- 12 team leagues
Side note: all the ADP from Dynasty Data Lab is based on Superflex formats. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s discuss the players I’m highest and lowest on relative to market value within 2025 Dynasty rookie drafts.
Matthew Golden (WR – GB)
My Ranking: 2.05
Dynasty Data Lab ADP: 2.01
Matthew Golden was the third wide receiver off the board in the NFL Draft, taken 23rd overall by Green Bay, a team that doesn’t have a clear WR1 on their team. On the surface, it’s wheels up for Golden, but things get dicey when you dig deeper.Â
Golden finished the 2024 season with just 83 targets over 17 games, averaging under five targets per game. This included the College Football Playoffs, where he had 25 of his 83 targets. He actually took a backseat to his teammate, Isaiah Bond, for the first half of the season. Bond suffered an ankle injury in Week 7 and played the rest of the year hurt, allowing Golden to step up and take on a larger role.Â
I’m still willing to grab Golden in the mid-second round in Superflex rookie drafts, but he’s typically gone by then. I’m always taking Jayden Higgins, Tre Harris, and Luther Burden over him, who I have in the same tier. That sub-18% target rate in his final season scares me; I’m not sure he’s good enough to demand a big chunk of this Packers offense.Â
Cam Skattebo (RB – NYG)
My Ranking: 3.01
Dynasty Data Lab ADP: 2.04
Skattebo fell to Day 3 to the disappointment of many but finds himself in a landing spot where he has a reasonably clear path to touches. Tyrone Tracy is the only real competition, a former fifth rounder who showed some promise in Year 1 but isn’t the caliber player to hold off Skattebo entirely. Singletary may also get some occasional work, but I’m mostly considering him a non-factor in 2025.Â
Skattebo isn’t someone I was planning to fade, but Top 16 overall is way too rich for me. He’s still a Day 3 guy projected to be in a committee, playing for what projects to be a well below-average offense. I don’t see Tracy disappearing entirely here. I have one Skattebo share thus far in my rookie drafts, but I’m not sure I’ll have any more if he stays this expensive.
Jack Bech (WR – LV)
My Ranking: 3.02
Dynasty Data Lab ADP: 2.07
I don’t dislike Bech as a prospect; I’m just typically clicking guys like Kyle Williams, Bhayshul Tuten, and Jaylin Noel over him in the mid-to-late second round. Bech was a big producer for LSU as a true freshman, but injuries kept him off the field for much of the next two seasons. Bech officially broke out in Year 4 for the Horned Frogs, and interestingly enough, found most success after moving from the slot to working primarily on the boundaries.Â
I don’t see Bech as an X at the NFL level as he’s not a great separator, so I imagine he’ll be operating out of the slot or play the Z-receiver role when Bowers is in the slot. Geno Smith generally has a lower ADOT, which could benefit Bech’s game. There’s a good chance Bech is the fourth receiving option after Bowers, Meyers, and Ashton Jeanty. (People forget how good a receiver Jeanty was in 2023.)
I still plan to get one or two shares of Bech in my rookie drafts, but I expect I’ll be underweight relative to the market. He feels like the type of prospect who will get you around 10 PPR points per game for most of his career; good, but not a difference-maker.Â
Shedeur Sanders (QB – CLE)
My Ranking: 4.03
Dynasty Data Lab ADP: 2.11
The Shedeur Sanders slide was perhaps the biggest prospect slide we’ve seen in NFL history. Sanders went from a potential Round 1 selection to a Round 5 pick by the Browns, after they had already selected Dillon Gabriel two rounds earlier. I’m not saying Gabriel has better odds of being an NFL starter than Shedeur, because he definitely doesn’t, but the fact that every NFL team passed up on Shedeur multiple times is about as big a red flag as you can have. Whether this is about his pompous attitude, bombing NFL interviews, the potential distraction his dad brings, his physical abilities, or a combination of all the above, it doesn’t matter much to me. He was a Day 3 pick when it’s all said and done, and Day 3 quarterbacks don’t typically get their shot in the NFL.Â
Even if he does get his starting chance, we know the leash will be short, and Sanders doesn’t have the rushing upside to be an elite fantasy producer if he does hit. I’m willing to have zero Shedeur shares if he’s going to cost a Top 24 rookie pick.Â
Dylan Sampson (RB – CLE)
My Ranking: 4.06
Dynasty Data Lab ADP: 3.06
Sampson was actually a fairly intriguing pre-draft prospect. He was an early declare and highly productive this past season at Tennessee, tallying 22 rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately for Samson, he was a Day 3 pick in the NFL Draft, going to a team that already selected a running back in Round 2, Quinshon Judkins. At best, Sampson is a handcuff to Judkins, and that’s assuming he’s better than Jerome Ford.Â
Sampson is a smaller back, measuring in at 5’8″ and 200 lbs. There were glimpses on his tape where he appeared to shy away from contact, and I’m not sold that he has the physicality to produce at the NFL level. A mid-third-round rookie pick is just too pricey for me. I’d prefer RBs like Jarquez Hunter and DJ Giddens in this range.Â
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
