In this two-part article, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class quarterbacks, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their play style. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. Part one features Day 1 prospects.
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence has been the consensus first pick in the 2021 draft for the last five years. He won a National Championship as a true freshman and improved in each season thereafter.
Physical: Standing at 6’6” and 220 lbs. Lawrence in his own right is a physical unicorn. His BMI of 24.85 is exceptionally low for NFL quarterbacks, so we would expect him to add some mass to his frame. The only quarterback to be 6’6” and up and have a lower BMI than Lawrence was Mike Glennon. If we assume that Lawrence is closer to 213 lbs. his physical comparisons become much more palatable. Lawrence draws physical comparisons to some all-time greats.
Trevor Lawrence dealt with COVID-19 during the season, and like Rashod Bateman he weighed in significantly below expectations. While we should take his measurements at face value, this could provide some context for his low weight. Hypothetically, if we move Lawrence up to his listed weight of 220 lbs. his comparable players are slightly more impressive from a physical context.
Athletic: Lawrence is viewed by many as a pocket passer, but he has the mobility and strength to be a viable threat on the ground at the next level. The below clip encapsulates everything that a quarterback needs in the NFL to be an effective rusher. The speed to outrun linemen, the agility to make a closing defensive back miss, and the long speed to finish the play untouched in the end zone.
The next clip will showcase Lawrence’s toughness. This play sealed the CFB Championship as a true freshman.
Finally, he has the athleticism and footwork to escape a broken pocket and keep his feet under him to make money throws across his body to an open receiver.
Lawrence has an athletic profile that compares similarly to the two best quarterbacks from the 2005 class: Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers.
Play Style: Lawrence is a prototypical quarterback. As mentioned he has the size and athleticism of a franchise quarterback but most importantly his arm talent is what garnered the comparisons as the best prospect since Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning.
Final Comparison: Matt Ryan with wheels and shades of Aaron Rodgers.
Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson is a three-year starter for BYU, his 2020 season showing off his accuracy, mobility, and ability to throw from many platforms.
Physical: Zach Wilson, the BYU quarterback is the consensus second-overall pick until Joe Douglas and the Jets tell us otherwise. Wilson stands at 6’2” and 217 lbs. This is a very common size for quarterback prospects, so we are going to see a very wide range of comparisons. Below is a list of all comparable quarterbacks, notably he has almost an identical frame to Sam Darnold. You can also see the comparisons to Mahomes, Watson, and Rodgers. Let’s see if we can gain more insights into Wilson’s range of outcomes by diving deeper.
Athletic: Wilson has a great sense of defensive pressure and moves around the pocket very well. He has the speed to take off and run on a broken play, and the accuracy to make the defense pay on deep throws. The largest riser from this draft class and a major driver in that value ascension is Wilson’s athleticism. Wilson ran a 4.84-second 40-yard dash in high school and showed speed on the field. I am not a doctor, however, two of the best follows on Twitter are and they dove into Wilson’s worrisome shoulder injury in 2018.
To summarize the Tweet chains, Wilson is likely to reinjure his shoulder based on studies on torn labrums for quarterbacks, but it is more of an indication of the positional injury risk than Wilson’s use of his athleticism on the field. Based on his athleticism we can exclude Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow from Wilson’s comparison list. However, his lack of testing numbers does not give us much indication of his range of outcomes as a standalone metric.
Play Style: Zach Wilson is a gunslinger, he loves to manipulate the pocket and work the ball downfield. This throw from Wilson’s combine is emblematic of his play style. Notice his footwork, he throws the ball right across his body, while rolling to the left, basically a turnaround jumper.
He also has the athleticism to make defenders miss both in the pocket, and on the scramble. He even hurdled a defender! This is an indication of the way he attacks the game and looks to make big plays. However, no coach will like a quarterback or any player putting their body in that vulnerable position in the air.
Based on these looks at his play style, we can compare Wilson to a young Aaron Rodgers, or a smaller version of Matthew Stafford.
Final Comparison: Zach Wilson is nearly an identical prospect to Sam Darnold. Many may not want to hear this because of the situation the Jets are in. Darnold didn’t make it as a quarterback in New York and has been moved to Carolina. Wilson does have Mahomes or Rodgers-type upside.
Justin Fields
Justin Fields is the ultimate “Konami Code” quarterback, his combination of elite speed and accuracy offers the highest ceiling of any rookie QB.
Physical: Standing at 6’3” and 227 lbs. Fields have the size of a prototypical NFL quarterback. With that size, Fields has a BMI of 28.37 which is an exact match to Deshaun Watson’s combine measurements. As physical comparisons go Fields is an even blend of Watson and Robert Griffin III.
Athletic: As noted above Fields recorded a laser time of 4.42-seconds in the 40-yard dash during his Pro Day at Ohio State. Despite his blazing speed at the quarterback position, Fields doesn’t quite have the agility of a Lamar Jackson or a Kyler Murray.
Play Style: Passing: Fields has the rare combination of rushing ability and precise passing that crack the “Konami Code”. As a passer, he was more accurate on deep balls than most NFL quarterbacks, which is quite the rarity for a 21-year-old.
According to a film study by The Athletic’s Bill Landis, Fields missed the mark on only 27 of his 76 attempts on deep balls (20+ yards downfield) in 2019. That is an accuracy of 64% on deep balls which was the most accurate among all college quarterbacks. Fields also evades pressure while keeping his eyes downfield and staying behind the line of scrimmage. The only player with this type of escape ability and efficiency is Russell Wilson.
Rushing: Fields has a dominant running style where he is comfortable making contact, but the speed to freeze defenders and avoid the hit. His rushing style is similar to a mini Cam Newton. While this is a positive for fantasy purposes it does raise a red flag when considering his Robert Griffin III physical comparison. Fields did play a part of 2019 with a minor knee injury; this play style may not be conducive for consistently staying off the injury report in the NFL. This is simply theoretical and the only red flag that Fields has on his profile.
Final Comparison: With all things considered, Field’s closest comparison is a souped-up Russell Wilson.
Trey Lance
Trey Lance is a one-year starting quarterback for North Dakota State. He is a very raw quarterback but possesses elite-level tools and infinite upside.
Physical: The North Dakota State quarterback stands at 6’3.8” and 224 lbs. There have been 76 quarterbacks to measure between 6’3 and 220 lbs. and 6’4.5” and 230 lbs. since 2000. Of those 76 players, 21% of them garnered between first and second-round draft capital.
Trey Lance from a physical perspective compares to several prospects over the past 20 years. You can argue that Lance is the most athletic of the bunch. However, his lack of testing numbers leaves that as a question mark, as it is tough to judge Lance against the poor level of competition in the FCS. A number of these physical comparisons hold weight when looking at Lance’s athletic background and play style.
Athletic: Trey Lance with his big frame moves around effortlessly. He has the speed to outrun defenders and the strength to take on hits and even dole out punishment to the defenders. There are very few red flags that you can find on Lance, strictly looking at his athleticism.
If Lance ran the 40-yard dash, based on his game film we expect he would have tested in the range of 4.5-seconds. Athletically, we need to look no further than Marcus Mariota for a comparison.
Play Style: Here is the red flag, and it is ironic having Mariota as both a physical and athletic comparison. Trey Lance has only started in 17 games, and he did so against FCS level competition. Lance was hardly ever put in situations that were difficult as he went undefeated as a starter. Many front office executives like to see a larger sample size than what Lance offers.
The irony of the Mariota comparison is that North Dakota State was scheduled to play against Oregon in an attempt to put Lance up against NFL-level athletes until COVID-19 shook up those plans dramatically. Lance has question marks when it comes to his accuracy. In the NFL his receivers won’t always have five yards of separation on every route. Lance’s eyes come down when he feels pressure and tends to take off and run rather than work the pocket.
With that said, Lance has all of the physical tools to be a successful NFL quarterback, so the big question mark is whether a team will be patient with him and give him time to learn the offense.
Trey Lance’s play style competition is Dak Prescott.
Final Comparison: I believe that we are hitting the nail on the head with the Trey Lance comparisons. He has the build and athleticism of Marcus Mariota and plays like Dak Prescott.
Mac Jones
Mac Jones beat out five-star incoming freshman Bryce Young for the Alabama starting quarterback job. He had a nearly perfect season, even missing his star receiver Jaylen Waddle for most of the campaign, capping it off by bringing a National Championship back to Alabama.
Physical: Mac Jones is not physically imposing like Justin Fields or Trey Lance. Standing at 6’2.6” and 217 lbs. Jones was used as a statue-Esque pocket passer for Alabama.
Mac Jones compares favorably to players like Andy Dalton and Geno Smith from a physical standpoint. He isn’t going to run anyone over in the open field, or escape any oncoming defenders, but he does have the ability to take off for a first down or touchdown. We will likely be hearing announcers say he has deceptive speed when he does so on Sundays.
Athletic: Jones leaves a lot to be desired from an athletic standpoint. However, he did run a surprisingly fast 4.85-second 40-yard dash and jumped 32” in the vertical. Historically, some very impressive playmakers fall in the same range as Jones.
If the 49ers did in fact mortgage their future to move up and select Jones, they certainly did so because they see potential to move around in the pocket and run a lot of bootlegs. Notably, Alex Smith, but also players like Stafford, Mahomes, Wentz, and Allen have all shown success at the NFL level extending the action and creating highlight-worthy plays. While Jones will never be a rushing threat like Josh Allen, his athletic profile does not exclude rushing abilities from his range of outcomes.
Play Style: Mac Jones was used strictly as a strict passer at Alabama, maybe because of deficiencies on the run, but maybe just because Saban had his 2019 season derailed due to an injury to his starting quarterback and didn’t want to be put in the same position in 2020. Within the Alabama offense, the most comparable player to Jones from a play-style perspective is Jimmy Garappolo. He also draws comparisons to Andy Dalton.
Final Comparison: Mac Jones has all of the traits to be an elite-level game manager in the NFL. That is a compliment not an insult to Jones. He is built like Andy Dalton, and it will be interesting to see how his NFL team decides to use or not use his mobility in their game plan. Jones is somewhere between Dalton and Garoppolo as an overall player.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
