Welcome back to my Offseason Roster Management series. In Part 1, I broke down two players on my main dynasty roster that I am looking to sell this offseason. I tried to let objective data guide my process as I listed the pros and cons of both moving on from as well as keeping both players. If you haven’t yet read the first piece, I would encourage you to go back and check it out.
If you missed my first piece, or want a quick refresher of my goal for this series, here it is one more time: I will be open and honest about some of the roster management questions I believe I will be facing on my main dynasty league as we enter this offseason.
A quick disclaimer, since I know everyone uses these terms in their way: when I suggest selling a dynasty asset, it is not because I do not think they will no longer have value, it is because I think their current value as likely the highest it will be. As always, I would love to hear your thoughts and feedback!
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Similar to the wide receiver I wrote about in my first piece, Allen is a player I may struggle to move on from this offseason. He’s been a PPR machine his last three years in the league. Also, he’s been a staple of my fantasy rosters, both redraft, and dynasty, for quite a while.
Once labeled as “injury-prone” early in his career, Keenan Allen has now played three complete seasons in the NFL. In each of those seasons, he has played at a high level. In addition to soaking up a plethora of targets each season, Allen has been one of the most lethal route-runners in the league. When it comes to shaking loose a defender, Allen is one of my favorite players to watch.
One knock against his otherwise sterling record is his inability to score touchdowns at a high rate. Only once in his career (2013) has he scored more than six touchdowns. The ability to buoy his value in PPR formats has kept Keenan Allen more than viable in fantasy over the last few years. However, scoring eight or more, or even double-digit touchdowns each year would have vaulted him into the upper-echelon of wideouts.
One of the bigger questions looming over Allen this offseason is the future of his franchise quarterback, Philip Rivers. Rivers epitomizes toughness throughout his time in the NFL, having played 14 straight seasons without missing a game. However, the 38-year-old is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and both Rivers and the Chargers have a decision to make.
The Chargers have openly expressed that they will explore all options this offseason. This could very well mean parting ways with their veteran, franchise quarterback. Rivers, to his credit, believes he can still play and has said he has no intention of retiring. However, he has acknowledged that his time with the Chargers may be nearing an end.
For Keenan Allen, this is significant news. It’s one thing for a wide receiver to play with a new quarterback, but when that wide receiver and quarterback have played together for seven years, that change has the potential to bring about some major changes in productivity.
For about the last decade, the average age for a top 12 wide receiver (PPR scoring) has been around 26-27 years old. Allen will be 28 at the start of the 2020 season. While it’s not old, he’s starting to slowly creep up in age. The likelihood of a new, potentially rookie quarterback, coupled with a continued lack of touchdown scoring and a slight bump in age, Keenan Allen may be at peak value.
This does not make him an automatic sell in dynasty leagues. He could stay productive with a new quarterback because of his elite route-running and ball possession skills. While he may continue to struggle to find the endzone at a high rate, the talent and opportunity should still be there for him to be productive for a few years.
Another variable to consider is the sudden influx and growing depth at the wide receiver position. This is especially true as it pertains to fantasy football. While the NFL becomes more pass-happy and implements new rules to keep quarterbacks, and players as a whole, safer, more wideouts will find themselves having more fantasy value. The prospect of selling Keenan Allen is more a tribute to the growing depth at the position than it is a knock against his potential production.
For my part, I would not mind moving Keenan Allen. A mid-first-round pick and a young wide receiver with higher potential would be my deal of choice. My dynasty league in question is deep at wide receiver so I am more willing to pivot from my veterans towards younger players while also acquiring future draft capital.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
This one may surprise people. Now, hear me out. I am not saying you need to or should be looking to actively trade Dalvin Cook. However, perception matters a ton in fantasy football. If you think that the zone-blocking scheme set up in Minnesota is going to continue to be the path to elite fantasy production for Cook, I can’t say I blame you. If you think there is enough legitimate concern over his injury history and turnover at his position to warrant a “sell high,” let’s take a closer look.
The first aspect of Dalvin Cook I want to further explore is his injury history. While the information isn’t entirely current, I will fill in the rest momentarily. Otherwise, here is what Sports Injury Predictor has on file for Cook.
Two shoulder labrum tears and a torn ACL all by his fourth NFL game is not a great start. The soft tissue injuries the season following his ACL tear are a bit more understandable. Those tend to be more common for guys coming off of those types of injuries.
The issue that gives me pause is the chest/shoulder injury that Dalvin Cook sustained near the end of the 2019 regular season. In Week 13 against the Seattle Seahawks, Cook left with an apparent chest injury right after halftime.
Fast-forward two weeks to Week 15 and Cook, once again, left the game early with a designated shoulder injury and did not return. That is the last time we have seen Cook on the field. The Vikings have sought to protect their young star by holding him out of Weeks 16 and 17.
Repeated hits to running backs are to be expected. It’s the nature of the position. Even the most fluid, shifty players at the position are going to absorb a ton of hits throughout a season. See Le’Veon Bell. The ACL injury does not worry me. The repeated chest and shoulder injuries worry me.
With what I have seen this season, both the good (RB2 for the better portion of the season) and the bad (chest/should injuries), I am not opposed to trading away Dalvin Cook for a substantial haul. As I mentioned before, perception is everything, as is risk tolerance. Fantasy players always have to balance their tolerance for risk with the potential for reward. We’ve seen Cook be an elite RB1 and we’ve seen him miss significant time as a professional due to injury.
I believe you should always be willing to listen to trade offers even for players such as Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, and Michael Thomas. Dalvin Cook is no different. If you are concerned about a big hit to his shoulder ending his season, and you can recoup a substantial value in the form of players and picks, be open to that. If you want to ride the talent to a potential title next year and hope for no injury, buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Dalvin Cook will be on the block for me this offseason. If I feel the value is too good to pass up, especially as it pertains to mitigating my exposure to risk as much as I can, I will find it hard to turn down a fair offer. In the end, it always comes down to value.
Thanks for checking out my article! For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @Samuel_DFF.
