The NFL’s big news of Carolina Day is New England’s acquisition of former Panthers QB Cam Newton. On June 28, 1776, American patriots rebuffed a British attack on Charleston harbor. The key to success was a remarkably resilient fort built of palmetto logs that repelled cannonballs.
Cam Newton and his fantasy football value have been similarly under siege for nearly two years. He has an opportunity to silence critics and achieve ultimate victory with the New England Patriots in 2020.
Newton arrives in New England with, in the words of NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport, “a chance to compete” for the starting job with 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham. The youngster has faced adversity of his own. The former Elite 11 prospect chose to play collegiately at Auburn. His pro-style play fit uneasily into Auburn’s zone-read offense, and he didn’t seem to reach his potential.
In this article, two analysts with mutual respect for one another, @DynastyTripp (proponent) and @DocFFFN (contrarian view) go blow for blow in debating whether the past few days’ recent fantasy news surrounding Newton’s signing in New England is warranted or just pop media hype. We will analyze the ins and outs of Cam’s potential with the Pats through five different lenses. Who will win the opportunity to succeed Tom Brady, the most successful quarterback in NFL history, and why?
HEALTH
Tripp: No critical analysis of Cam Newton’s prospects can ignore the fact that he’s failed to complete each of the last two seasons due to injury. Newton suffered a shoulder injury in the ninth game of the Panthers’ 2018 season on this sack. We later learned that he suffered cartilage damage that interfered with the shoulder’s range of mobility. His compromised throwing motion landed him on the injured-reserve list as inflammation worsened in ensuing weeks.
Former Chargers’ team doctor and current analyst David Chao wrote in February 2019 wrote positively about Newton’s prognosis for a return to play and that he’d experience no limitations in doing so. While the nature of the injury demonstrates degenerative arthritis, that process is slow and will allow him more years of NFL service.
Newton lost all of 2019 to a Lisfranc sprain in his foot. The injury occurred in a preseason game against the Patriots. Newton tried to rehab the injury but a return to play a month later was unsuccessful. Surgery ended Newton’s second consecutive season.
ESPN medical analyst Stephania Bell believes Newton is “100% healthy” to enter the 2020 season. A Charleston, SC, orthopedist cites a study of NFL players indicating no loss of ability upon recovering from a Lisfranc injury.
Some fans fear Newton’s style of play makes him more susceptible to injury than other quarterbacks. As the videos above show, however, both the shoulder and foot injuries occurred in the pocket. The Sporting News reports that “injury proneness” of running quarterbacks is overstated.
Doc: For the Patriots this was a low-risk buy. If Cam is healthy and can stay healthy, and his arm isn’t shot, and then IF Stidham struggles in the opening weeks of the season, I can see New England giving Cam the reigns. The question is, how healthy is Cam Newton? A quick visit to https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/cam-newton/4690 reveals the following documented injuries during his NFL career:
Sep 12, 2019: Pedal Lisfranc Sprain
Oct 21, 2018: Shoulder – unspecified, played through injury and underwent offseason surgery
Jan 7, 2018: Knee Strain Grade 1
Dec 11, 2016: Shoulder Rotator Cuff Tear
Oct 2, 2016: Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1
Dec 9, 2014: Back Vertebral Fracture – a non-football injury that occurred in a car accident
Aug 22, 2014: Chest Rib Fracture
Jan 12, 2014: Pedal Ankle Ligament Tear Grade 3
Dec 30, 2012: Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull – unspecified
Cam has always been a body thrower (albeit he improved his throwing motion over the course of his career), who does not possess the best throwing mechanics. Have a look here (https://www.panthers.com/video/nfl-network-examines-cam-newton-s-throwing-motion). He has had multiple lower body and upper body injuries. He is 31 now, not 26 like he was during his MVP campaign. History has shown us that QBs with the propensity to rush the ball as often as Newton do normally do not play till age 40 like a Brees or a Rivers or a Brady… Reminder: Cam is now 31 years old.
If the doctors have him healed up and back to his age 26 true prime form, and then assuming he could learn enough of the offense in time, then sure, I think he could potentially win the starting job. I’m not convinced of those things though. At this point, Cam seems more like an older, broken-down version of Josh Allen in my opinion, albeit with slightly better accuracy and a less potent arm.
ABILITY
Tripp: In acknowledging that Cam Newton won the NFL’s MVP award in 2015, his critics claim that season was an outlier, that he hasn’t been “good” since then, and might not have been “good” before then.
Prior to the 2018 season, the Panthers fired offensive coordinator Mike Shula and replaced him with Norv Turner. This pedigreed offensive mind was asked to install a pro-style offense less reliant on the zone-read. Newton, meanwhile, was tasked with improving his mechanics.
The results through eight games were stellar. The Panthers were 6-2 and looked well on their way to a second consecutive playoff berth. Newton was on pace to smash career bests in completion percentage (67.3%) and sacks taken (12 through 8 games). His 16-game pace was 3,786 passing yards and 30 passing TDs with characteristic production on the ground: 684 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns.
After that fateful sack by TJ Watt in Pittsburgh, Newton’s shoulder injury worsened to the point that he couldn’t throw the ball 40 yards downfield. The Panthers lost Newton’s remaining starts, as he was clearly limited.
Doc: Cam Newton was a stud for a long time, there is no arguing that. However, if we piecemeal together, with the help of pro-football-reference.com, the last three seasons he played, 2016-2018, (we’ll even toss out the two 2019 duds) then he averaged 3,402 passing yards, with just over 21 passing TDs and just over 14 INTs per season as a passer. This is married to a completion percentage just under 60% (which matches his career completion percentage of 59.6% as our revered DFF analyst Lewis Glover points out in his article https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/cam-newton-to-new-england-rapid-reaction/ detailing Cam’s signing). As a passer, those numbers would have put Newton right in the middle of the Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Kyle Allen, and Gardner Minshew range of QBs in 2019. Now we know in the past, if Newton has taken the regular snaps at QB as the starter then he was good for 500 yards on the ground and 4 or 5 TDs… but if Cam really IS a potential long term solution for the Patriots (or any other team), will he be running the ball as frequently as he did in the past if New England (or he, himself) wants him to remain healthy? How does he fit into the Patriots’ offense?
All of that aside, New England’s beat writers and coaching staff have been pumping up “Stid the Kid” all off-season. During college, Stidham was a top 3 QB prospect up until his senior year. He lost three out of five starting offensive lineman and Kerryon Johnson prior to the 2018 season and didn’t put up the same statistics as a senior. He was widely regarded as the most mechanically sound QB in his draft class, and the reported weaknesses that caused his draft slide were centered around confidence issues and, like most collegiate QBs, processing and reading defensive coverages slowly. I think Stid is underrated as a prospect, and ironically, he has some sneaky rushing upside. Nothing overly impressive like Cam Newton, but kind of like a Trubisky style rushing… he can take off and bust off 15 or 20 yards at random when needed. You can find some of that potential, as well as a display of accuracy and proficiency throwing to the middle of the field and between the numbers in his 2019 preseason highlights here:
BEST INTEREST OF THE PATRIOTS
Tripp: The Patriots’ roster occupies more salary-cap space than any team in the NFL at this moment. OvertheCap.com estimates the team has merely $1.3 million in space. This forced the Patriots to offer Newton no more than the veteran-minimum base salary – just a shade over a million dollars – plus incentives.
Newton’s willingness to accept this contract, together with the time elapsed since his release from the Panthers, shows he’s as much or more eager to play in New England as the Patriots are to have him do so. Newton prioritizes his image and legacy over money in the opinion of your writer, a long-time South Carolina resident, and Panthers fan. He wants to go out on his own terms and preferably on top, the way he came into the league from Auburn, fresh off an NCAA championship.
Doc: The genius of Bill Belichick is they signed Cam Newton on the day the NFL announced the punishment for the Pats’ illegal videotaping of the Bengals and Browns sidelines back in December. Cam Newton’s headlines overshadow this news and bad publicity. Per Adam Schefter the organization was penalized $1.1 million in team fines, they lose their 2021 third-round pick, and their television crew can no longer shoot games during the 2020 season.
What makes Belichick even more genius, is with the figures of Cam’s contract and by creating packages of plays to guarantee him snaps when New England lets Newton walk after this season, they will get back a third, fourth, or fifth round compensatory pick in 2022 to make up for the one they just were penalized for…. thus, nearly evening out what they lost. It sure has the feeling of another one of those patented Bill Belichick “F#@$ You’s” directed toward Roger Goodell and the league.
The Pats have always been a game plan specific team and they will take away what other teams do best. When they have the ball, they will also exploit what other teams struggle to defend with their offense. As we saw last season, many teams struggled to contain Baltimore’s run-heavy offense that utilized Lamar Jackson’s rushing abilities. I am not at all comparing Cam Newton to Lamar Jackson, as they profile as very different athletes, but there is no doubt in my mind that Josh McDaniels can manufacture some formation specific packages to utilize Newton’s running ability.
NATURE OF CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES
Tripp: The Patriots lack impact players on offense. They lost key defenders that they might be able to replace. Cam Newton, replacing Tom Brady, is their only shot to have an above-average NFL team in 2020.
In 2021, the Patriots will have over $100 million in cap space. Next March, the Patriots will have the opportunity to sign impact players and surround Stidham with talent while he’s on his rookie contract.
The 2020 Patriots are the 2009 Vikings and the 1993 Chiefs. Those teams got awfully close to a Super Bowl with a sunsetting star quarterback. Can the Patriots match those levels of success? This writer thinks they’re capable!
Doc: New England’s offense is notoriously complex, and while they have had Tom Brady under center the past two decades, with Jarrett Stidham learning the system for the past year and a half I feel he has an edge.
Cam Newton has 2 months before the season begins (assuming no delays) in an offseason in which players still have not been able to report to OTAs or minicamp or even begin to do anything together as a team! Let’s keep in mind that Newton willingly took an incentive-laden, backup QB salary to sign with the Patriots. Adam Schefter also reported earlier today that the Patriots were the only team to even offer Cam Newton a contract. The Athletic’s Jeff Howe also recently cited a source stating that the Patriots signing of Cam Newton “has nothing to do with Jarrett Stidham’s performance.” Numerous outlets over the last two days have cited “sources” that claim that Newton has not been guaranteed a starting job in New England.
Many people over the past few days have been quick to point out that Cam Newton has never finished worse than the fantasy QB5 overall (in most scoring formats) in seasons in which he played all 16 games, and I agree, that really is an impressive accomplishment. What those people fail to mention, though, is that he has only done that two times in the past six seasons. Couple this with the fact that the Pats offense of late has centered around a lot of short-range, high percentage throws over the middle (as we saw in Stidham’s highlights above). This is not Cam Newton’s style of game, as Lewis pointed out for us before (https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/cam-newton-to-new-england-rapid-reaction/), Cam’s past success has been grounded in downfield throws, plays extending the pocket and buying time, big chunk rushing gains, and numerous goal line carries mixed in. The Patriots would be wise to let Stidham start the season and see what they have in him. If he falters, then it gives Newton an extra month or so to become acclimated to the offense, gain chemistry with the backs and receivers, and grasp the ins and outs of playing quarterback for the New England Patriots. However, my bet is that Stidham will perform well.
FANTASY IMPLICATIONS
Tripp: As our DFF colleague Lewis Glover tweeted on Carolina Day, if Newton’s on the field, he’s a QB1. Newton remains one of a half dozen difference-makers for fantasy football at the quarterback position. There’s some small risk that 2020 goes horribly wrong for the Patriots, leading to Newton’s replacement by Stidham in the starting lineup, but Newton wins weeks. He should be selected shortly after the six Tier-one QBs come off the board in redraft.
Acquiring Cam Newton for dynasty is a risk/reward proposition. He should be treated similarly to Mark Ingram or even his new teammate, Julian Edelman. All are players who should hold value and hold down spots in our starting lineups this year. All are players whose futures have yet to be written.
Doc: If Stid has success, I see Cam being used in packages near the goal line, Taysom Hill and Tim Tebow type offensive plays. This would render him with some Taysom Hill+ fantasy value. He can also be brought in to give the offense a spark when/if it becomes stagnant from time to time. More importantly, he is an experienced and capable quarterback in the circumstance that Stidham falters the first few weeks of the season, or gets injured, or if for some other reason the Patriots need to make a change. Bill Belichick is never willing to give up on a season and throw in the towel, so Newton provides incredibly inexpensive insurance.
I think there is no chance Newton signs a long term deal with the Patriots. New England should be run-heavy this season with their dominant defense – that has admittedly lost a good few pieces – and an offensive transition period (regardless of who the QB is). I think the long-term play here (I always initially think in terms of dynasty, not redraft) for fantasy is that even IF Cam becomes the starter at some point, for any length of time, the Pats will run him into the ground for cheap and let him walk after this season and recoup a third-round compensatory draft pick. New England won’t spend big money on a 32-year-old broken-down rushing-proficient QB that has had his struggles with accuracy and shoulder injuries, as well as a questionable throwing motion.
So even in a best-case scenario for Cam where he becomes the starter at some point, I think he is gone after this season. It is a very smart signing though. Very Belichick-esque.
BONUS GIF BATTLE
Tripp: Cam has more unique TD celebrations that Stidham has career touchdowns.
Doc: Cam and his “couture” having “fun” adhering to Bill Belichick’s strict in-season regimen.
Tripp: Cam in the AFC East…
Doc: Cam upon hearing the news that Jarrett Stidham has been announced as the Game 1 starter.
Tripp: Cam on his way to the playoffs…
Doc: Cam coming to the realization that he is now a backup QB…
Tripp: Cam landing the first-round bye…
Doc: Cam two years from now, out of the league and desperately attempting an acting career as a Carleton copy in a low-budget spin-off of the “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” that fails miserably…
Tripp: Cam showing Pats fans how to QB-sneak at the goal-line like a man…
Doc: Cam four years later trying his luck as a musician …
Tripp: Cam be like, “Injury prone? Seriously?”
Doc: “Stid the Kid” is not impressed.
Tripp: Cam Newton passing the torch. Wait, what torch?
Doc: Mic drop …
