Anyone can just draft their Dynasty teams based on where the player was selected in the NFL Draft. That doesn’t give you any edge over your peer league mates.
The goal should always be to find an edge that beats NFL draft capital. Five years ago, I developed the proprietary WR1 model to better forecast future fantasy success. The model utilizes 13 advanced metrics in a weighted formula and develops it into a singular easy-to-digest score. I will be publishing this once again for the DFF subscribers in 2025 to give them that extra leg up over their league mates.
Part of the success of this model is because the goal of NFL teams is different from the goal of fantasy owners. We want to accrue the most fantasy points. NFL teams want to win football games and sometimes that means selecting a speed merchant, like John Ross or Henry Ruggs, who will open up the field for other players and put pressure on the defense. Or they may want a player who will help block in their run game. And part of it, honestly, is because some NFL teams and general managers are just better at analytics than others.
For example, the Patriots are famously awful at drafting the wide receiver position.
Now let’s take a look at how the WR1 model performs vs the NFL draft for players who were drafted in similar areas in the draft. If the NFL draft was as strong at predicting future fantasy success, the charts would be random or have the better players at the bottom of the chart. As you look below, you will find this is clearly not the case. In fact, it is the exact opposite, as players drafted in similar parts of the draft clearly have the best players with the highest WR1 analytical model scores at the top.
Here is the first chart. This only includes players drafted top 15 overall in the NFL draft since 2007.
The below chart is the top 10 performers in the WR1 model who were also top 15 NFL draft picks. These players have combined for 29 top 12 fantasy finishes and 46 top 24 finishes.
By comparison, here are the bottom 10 performers in the WR1 model who were also top 15 NFL picks. These players have combined for 1 top-12 fantasy performance and 4 top 24 finishes.
Below we show wide receivers drafted in round 2. The top 10 scorers in the WR1 model were drafted in round 2.
These players have combined for 12 top 12 fantasy finishes and 20 top 24 finishes.
Bottom 10
The bottom 10 performers in the WR1 model for wide receivers chosen in round 2 have produced 2 total top 24 fantasy seasons.
Moving onto round 3 obviously, we will start to see fewer and fewer players hit, but as you will see the model still performs very well at finding players who can contribute to your fantasy teams.
There is only one hit so far here but there are a few promising young players. Josh Downs seems primed to eventually land in the top 24. He is 35 this year. Tillman showed out in a limited sting before landing on the injured reserve. He will take on a much larger role next year for Cleveland. Dell had a promising start to his career but has battled injuries.
The chart above shows the bottom performers in the WR1 model for round 3. Most of the players contributed nothing to fantasy lineups.
On to round 4 and this is one of the model’s biggest hits. Here you see Amon-Ra St. Brown ranking high despite being a fourth-round NFL selection that rarely sees hits. In fact, I was so high on Amon Ra St. Brown due to the model that I posted this on Twitter before he ever played a down in the NFL.
Unsurprisingly, the chart above showing the bottom 10 performers in the WR1 model for wide receivers drafted in the fourth round has no significant contributors.
Round 5 has seen some solid players emerge. The chart below shows the top 10 wide receivers in the WR1 model for wide receivers chosen in round 5.
Bottom 10
Here again, we see the top model performers drastically outperforming the bottom model performers despite the players being chosen in the same round. There were clear signs analytically with Puka Nacua and Stefon Diggs the NFL should have identified. For Puka, it was his excellent yards per route run meaning he was highly productive in the limited usage he had at BYU.
Rounds 6 and 7 haven’t seen any fantasy starter quality players in the last few years but the model did identify Demario Douglas, Malik Washington, and Kayshon Boutte in the top 10 who at least are serving some role on their teams.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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