Welcome one and all to one of our member favorites each year at Dynasty Football Factory: The WR1 Analytical Model Rankings. Months of research and years of dialing in and enhancing the model to accurately predict future wide receiver fantasy value brings us to today.
The NFL draft commences on April 25th. Shortly after this, many Dynasty leagues begin their rookie drafts. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are so many advanced metrics out there nowadays. We here at DFF know it can be a struggle to navigate which ones really matter and how much.
The WR1 model takes all that hard work and boils it down to one easy-to-understand number. The model scores rookies on 13 predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score.
It is important to note that NFL teams DO NOT CARE about your fantasy teams. Their goal is to win games and they draft wide receivers that help them do that. While fantasy production is a big piece of that, there are other factors NFL teams covet as well. Conversely, this model focuses purely on the fantasy aspect of each prospect.
You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here. Over the years, the WR1 process has been replicated and repackaged by others, so we left out a few main ingredients to keep it proprietary, but you get a good flavor of how it works.
Before we get into the 2024 prospects, here are the top-20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value.
As you can see this is a highly accurate predictor of future fantasy success. 18 of the top-20 prospect scores since 2011 have gone on to have a top-24 fantasy PPG season within their first 4 years in the NFL. 13 of those 20 have had a top-12 fantasy PPG season in their career.
With that, let’s go ahead and dive into the 2024 class.
Typically, I publish the top-15 only, but this wide receiver class is so deep I will do the top-20 this year. They will be published in groups of 5. A final version with all 20 will be published after the draft is complete, just in time for your rookie drafts.
Each prospect has 13 different metrics that feed the model. In this article, every player profiled will have the metrics they performed well and poorly in highlighted. They will also have their % chance of achieving at least 1 top-24 fantasy season noted based on where their WR1 model score ranks among a historical cluster of wide receivers.
20. Luke McCaffrey, Rice
WR1 Model Score: -2.0
% Chance of a Top-24 fantasy Season: 5.0%
The Good
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
McCaffrey only converted to wide receiver in 2022 after trying his hand at quarterback in the earlier part of his college career. Once he converted, he posted an incredible 18.6 fantasy points per game in his final two years at Rice. For his college career as a wide receiver, he ranked number one overall among wide receivers in this class. This score was higher than Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. So how can he rank 20 overall you ask? Well, there are 13 metrics that feed the model and we will get to the ones that are dragging him down.
McCaffrey earned 6 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Weighted Dominator Rating
Weighted dominator measures a player’s share of his team’s yardage and touchdowns weighted 80% yardage and 20% touchdowns. McCaffrey posted an excellent 33.1% weighted dominator rating (80% yards team share, 20% touchdowns team share). This was good for sixth in the class.
McCaffrey earned 3 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
Relative Athletic Score
Source: Ras.Football
McCaffrey has an outstanding athletic profile. This is highlighted by his 4.02 shuttle and 6.7 three-cone times. Those two metrics are highly coveted in NFL circles. McCaffrey has the tools to develop into an elite slot receiver in the NFL. He just hasn’t been doing it very long, so he is more of a projection than other prospects.
McCaffrey earned 15 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Late Declare
Prospects that declare when they are first eligible have a significantly higher hit rate than prospects that declare after this. McCaffrey was eligible last year, but given that he had just converted from quarterback to wide receiver, him being a late declare is not a surprise but still it is a ding to his WR1 model score.
McCaffrey lost 5 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
Projected Draft Capital
Simply put, it is the projected fifth-round draft capital from the consensus of experts on the NFL Mock Draft Database that is crushing McCaffrey in this model. This is the only of the 13 metrics that can still change. Hopefully, NFL teams see what I see in McCaffrey vs the “expert” prognosticators on the NFL Mock Draft Database. If he gets picked in round 3, it should vault him into the top-15 in this model.
McCaffrey lost 20 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
Film Score
The WR1 model utilizes a film grade from NFL.com scouting legend Lance Zierlein. McCaffrey did not fare well at all in his film score, holding fort in the caboose of this wide receiver class with a 5.96. Zierlein states, “McCaffrey struggles to release and bypass press coverage and might not have enough separation quickness or top-end speed to uncover against NFL defenders. However, with additional time to learn the position and fine-tune his route running, McCaffrey might be able to follow his dad and brother into the league as a possession slot receiver.”
McCaffrey earned 0 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
19. Jermaine Burton, Alabama
WR1 Model Score: 0.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 8.2%
The Good
Film Score
Zierlein gives Burton a 6.28, the eleventh-highest film grade in this wide receiver class. Zierlein writes “While the catch totals and yardage weren’t necessarily prolific, Burton’s tape is very appealing. He has pretty good size and plays bigger than he measures. He can fight through press, get physical at the break point and carve out space on 50/50 balls. Burton wasn’t asked to run an extended route tree, but he has the traits and ball skills to work all three levels against NFL cornerbacks.”
Burton earned 3 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Late Declare
Burton gets a ding to his model score for not declaring for the NFL when he was first eligible. Historically, prospects who declare when they are first eligible have a far higher hit rate than those who do not.
Burton lost 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Draft Capital
After you get past the first two rounds of the NFL draft, hit rates start to drop precipitously. Burton is currently projected to go in the third round of the NFL draft per NFL Mock Draft Database.
Burton lost 8 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
Burton only averaged 10.5 fantasy points per game in his college career. This ranked 18th of the 24 wide receiver prospects in the mix to be drafted. Bearing in mind this is ultimately the exact metric that we are looking for when we draft for Dynasty leagues, this is a red flag. His volume simply isn’t there to be an elite fantasy option. He projects more as a vertical field stretcher in the NFL.
Burton lost 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
18. Roman Wilson, Michigan
WR1 Model Score: 1.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 8.2%
The Good
Draft Capital
Wilson is currently projected by the NFL Mock Draft Database to be a second-round selection in the NFL draft. This is propping up his model score as the mock draft database has nine projected second-round wide receivers. In the WR1 model, Wilson is the lowest ranked of the nine.
Wilson earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Late Declare
Prospects that declare when they are first eligible have a significantly higher hit rate than prospects that declare after this. In essence, it’s an endorsement by the NFL that says that they are ready to compete at the highest level despite not playing four years in college. Wilson falls under this late declare category and gets dinged in the model.
Wilson lost 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Slot Percentage
Wilson had a 68.7% slot usage in college. In general, slot receivers are seen as less valuable as they have more space to work with. The lack of talent depth in college also means slot receivers are seeing inferior coverage. Further, they also have hash marks that are 40 feet apart while the NFL hash marks are only 18 feet apart allowing slot fades to be heavily integrated in college with more space to work.
Wilson lost 10 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
Weighted Dominator Breakout Year
Age-adjusted production is a significant predictor of future NFL success. The more success a player sees at a younger age, the more likely they are to be successful in the NFL. Weighted dominator measures a player’s share of his team’s yardage and touchdowns weighted 80% yardage and 20% touchdowns. Ideally, we want our top prospects to achieve a breakout by their second year in college. Wilson not only failed to do this, but he also failed to break out by his third year. His breakout only came this last year, his fourth in college when he achieved a 29.7% weighted dominator.
Wilson lost 2 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
Wilson averaged only 9.2 fantasy points per game in his college career. This ranked 21st of the 24 wide receivers we ranked for this exercise that are expected to be drafted.
Wilson lost 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
17. Keon Coleman, Florida St.
WR1 Model Score: 5.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 8.2%
The Good
Draft Capital
Coleman is currently projected to be selected in the second round of the NFL draft per the NFL Mock Draft Database. NFL Mock Draft Database has nine wide receivers being drafted in the second round. Coleman ranks eighth of nine in this model.
Coleman earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Early Declare
Coleman is declaring in his first year of eligibility for the NFL draft. Prospects who replicate this historically have a higher hit rate in the NFL than those who do not. It is an endorsement by the NFL that this player is ready to enter the league early.
Coleman earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Yards Per Route Run
Coleman posted a peak yards per route run of 2.07. Of the 24 wide receivers evaluated for this exercise this ranked just 23rd. This is one of the premier predictive metrics of future fantasy success and is a major red flag.
Coleman lost 5 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
Contested Target Rate
Contested target rate is exactly what it sounds like. It is a measure of a player’s % of targets that were deemed contested by PFF. At its core, it is a measure of the player’s ability to separate. At the college level, it is easier for some receivers to use their physical prowess to outcompete defensive backs. That does not translate to the NFL. They need to separate.
Per Scott Barrett, the top-10 power 5 players with the highest contested target rate since 2017 include famous draft busts like JJ Arcega-Whiteside (37.3%), Denzel Mims (28.9%), Hakeem Butler (28.8%), Quentin Johnston (27.1%), Tylan Wallace (27.0%), Terrace Marshall (26.5%) and David Bell (26.5%). Coleman’s contested target rate was an astounding 34.5%. This is the second-highest mark for a Power 5 receiver since 2017.
Coleman lost 15 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
PFF Receiving Grade
Per PFF, “The PFF grading system isolates the targeted receiver’s role on every pass attempt. Credit is given for plays in which the receiver adds value to the offense, especially when it’s above and beyond what was called for schematically.”
Coleman posted a paltry 70.6 PFF receiving grade this past season. Of the 24 wide receivers expected to be drafted in this mode, this ranked 23rd.
Coleman lost 2 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
16. Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
WR1 Model Score: 6.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 17.3%
The Good
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
Corley finished his college career averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game. A stellar year in 2022 with 101 receptions, 11 touchdowns, and 1295 yards highlighted his college campaign. This ranked him seventh in the class.
Corley earned 0 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Film Grade
Lance Zierlein is a fan of Malachi Corley’s film and ranked him tied for sixth in the class with a 6.35 film score. Zierlein writes, “Corley is a big, physical wideout who has been asked to carry a heavy workload for Western Kentucky using his talent after the catch. Corley’s highlight reel will be full of broken tackles and general carnage left in his wake. He’s an average route-runner with the tools to improve, but a disappointing drop rate and contested-catch rate are concerns relative to the way he plays the game in space. Like Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel when they were prospects, Corley has had a heavy percentage of his targets schemed around him and he will need to prove he can become more than just a quick-game bully or gadget guy.”
Corley earned 7 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Breakout Year
The earlier a prospect achieves a 20% share of their team’s receiving yards, the more likely they are to become a successful NFL wide receiver. Ideally, we want to see this breakout come in their second year. Corley did not break out until his third year at Western Kentucky.
Corley lost 1 point in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
Weighted Dominator Rating
Western Kentucky was a high-volume pass offense over Corley’s tenure at the university. His counting stats look impressive but his best season 26.1% team share of yardage and touchdowns ranks only 18th of the 24 wide receivers in the model.
Corley lost 2 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Stay tuned for the rest of the top-15 coming before the NFL Draft, exclusively for DFF members.
Thank you to Player Profiler, Lance Zierlein, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Spaceman Prospect Database for supplying data. Some of these metrics are dynamic and may change after this article is published.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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