Welcome to the first installment of my wide receiver faceoff series. The premise is simple. Take two players who have posted similar production and hold similar value, and determine who the preferable dynasty asset is moving forward.
First up: DeKaylin Zecharius Metcalf vs. Terry “F1” McLaurin
The 2019 rookie wide receiver class appears to have been loaded. When it is all said and done, this group of young receivers *might* challenge the vaunted 2014 class. All of the names on this list showed off their talent to various extents their rookie seasons, and I am excited to see their progression into their second season of professional football.
This list doesn’t even include the highly drafted N’Keal Harry, Parris Campbell, and Andy Isabella for whom it is far too early to write off as well.
A.J. Brown was in a tier of his own this season, but his Ole Miss teammate D.K. Metcalf and Ohio State’s Terry McLaurin make up the second tier of 2019 rookie receivers. Both had breakout rookie seasons, to the point where each had strong odds to win the OROY right up until when the nominees were announced. They finished with nearly identical production, but which one of these impressive rookies you should make sure is on your roster for years to come?
In the most recent mock draft data from MyFantasyLeague, Metcalf is being drafted as the WR16 (45 overall) and McLaurin is the WR22 (64 overall). I also ran a Twitter poll in which 69.9% of respondents preferred Metcalf over McLaurin:
It is quite clear that Metcalf has more perceived value as a dynasty asset than McLaurin at the moment. His tantalizing upside as well as the quagmire that is the Redskins’ offense are probably the main factors for this. So in a vacuum, taking Metcalf over McLaurin seems like the obvious choice.
Unfortunately, fantasy football rosters are not assembled in a vacuum. So let’s weigh up a variety of factors to see which returning-rookie wideout we should be targeting in drafts and trades this offseason.
2019 Production
In terms of raw production, McLaurin and Metcalf both made 58 catches for over 900 yards and seven touchdowns. However, McLaurin played in two fewer games and saw seven fewer targets, giving him a better catch rate and yards per game average.
In addition, McLaurin edged out Metcalf in multiple other statistical measures including:
- Yards per target: 10.10 to 9.28
- Average depth of target: 14.57 to 13.72
- Fantasy points per target: 2.06 to 1.85
- Snap share: 98.2% to 87.2%
According to NFL Next Gen stats, McLaurin also earned 37.09% of the Redskins’ air yards, whilst Metcalf accounted for 28.51% of the Seahawks.
McLaurin was also significantly more valuable than Metcalf according to Football Outsiders’ receiver Defense-adjusted Yards above Replacement (DYAR) metric. This adjusts a receiver’s production based on the game situation and opponent. You can read more about it here. He finished as the WR13 based on DYAR, whilst Metcalf finished just WR39.
Finally, McLaurin didn’t just beat out Metcalf in contested catch rate. He led the entire NFL!
Winner: McLaurin
Supporting Cast
At first glance, the obvious winner here is Metcalf. His skill set meshes perfectly with Russell Wilson who not only is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL but is probably one of the most accurate deep ball throwers too.
On the other hand, McLaurin is tied to Dwayne Haskins, who was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last year. The argument for Metcalf is looking pretty compelling…
The flip side is that McLaurin was able to produce in spite of being a part of one of the league’s worst offenses and working through the growing pains of Haskins. The two are also familiar with one another from their time together at Ohio State.
McLaurin also has less competition for targets than Metcalf. While Washington may bolster their receiving room in free agency and the draft, McLaurin has done enough, in my opinion, to establish himself as the primary receiver. Metcalf’s path to leading his team in targets is blocked by Tyler Lockett who is under contract at a very reasonable cap number for the next two seasons per Spotrac:
Add in the fact that the Seahawks are one of the most run-heavy teams in football, and McLaurin appears to have a much easier path to 130+ targets in a season much sooner than Metcalf.
Winner: McLaurin
Other Factors
Of course, there are other factors to consider in dynasty such as age, draft capital, and athletic testing which can help move the needle in a close contest.
Metcalf is over two years younger than McLaurin which gives him the edge in terms of possible longevity, as well as the greater potential to hone his craft. He has slightly more draft capital invested him in too, but more importantly and the regime which drafted him is still in the building in Seattle. It’s all change in Washington with Ron Rivera replacing Jay Gruden, and Bruce Allen’s replacement yet to be named until after the 2020 NFL Draft.
Finally, Metcalf is a superior athlete, boasting 99th percentile SPARQ and speed scores compared to McLaurin’s 95th percentile measurements, whilst also being a larger and more physically imposing receiver.
Winner: Metcalf
Conclusion
Both of these players exceeded expectations in their rookie season. You should be thrilled if you roster one or better yet, both of them. If the price was no object, I would probably take Metcalf but when factoring in the current market price of both players, I would prefer to have McLaurin on my roster. If I owned shares of Metcalf in my dynasty leagues, I would be approaching the McLaurin owner about a trade to swap these receivers and get another asset of value on top.
So who do you prefer moving forward? Let me know which of these two receivers you prefer on Twitter @FF_DownUnder and the next pair of players you want to see in my next face-off article!
