Welcome, #DFFArmy to Week 3! The NFL season has provided the typical chaos that we’ve come to expect and that includes several injuries to key players that you might need to backfill in your starting lineups. Who exactly should you start though? Is it the underperforming player with name recognition? Or is it time to give the up-and-comers a chance? I’ll outline a start and sit at each main position and some bonus picks below!
Quarterback
Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami vs Buffalo
Tagovailoa just threw six touchdown passes and 469 yards. Do I need to repeat that? I shouldn’t have to, but several large podcasts have been debating whether or not Tagovailoa should be started this week against a vaunted Bills defense. I’m here to plant the flag with a resounding YES. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle add speed to this offense that the NFL hasn’t seen. Tagovailoa may not be the best quarterback in the league, but in a game that has the highest Over/Under of the week at 52.5 points, there are points to be scored. Tagovailoa has had two games with these speedsters on the field together, and I expect eh offense to keep defenses on their toes more and more as we progress through the season. That includes the current super bowl favorite Buffalo Bills.
Sit: Russell Wilson, Denver vs San Francisco
Wilson has not met the lofty expectations that the fantasy community set for him during the offseason. It could be a combination of amateur coaching, no rapport with his wide receivers, age catching up to the now 33-year-old, or some combination of all three. What I do know is that losing one of your top two targets, Jerry Jeudy, doesn’t help. This will be Denver’s toughest opponent yet, and I expect the new staff to struggle against an experienced team and coaching staff. I’m looking to bench Wilson until we see more consistency from the team’s players and staff. I’d go as far as to start Joe Flacco against the Bengals over Wilson this week.
Running Back
Start: Dameon Pierce, Houston at Chicago
Lovie Smith talked about getting Pierce more involved in week two after Rex Burkhead surprisingly led the team in touches in week one. Surprisingly, Smith followed through on that comment by making Pierce the first running back to handle 100% of a team’s running back carries in a game. Lovie Smith continued to praise Pierce for his ability to “finish plays” after the 15-carry, 69-yard day while saying that they are “committed to getting him more carries”. Pierce shined in the preseason, owns all of the early down work, and has the head coach’s commitment to getting him more involved. I’m betting that the Texans expand his usage even more as we progress throughout the season and a close game against Chicago could be the perfect opportunity for Pierce to have his breakout.
Sit: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas at New York Giants
I know you probably can’t sit Ezekiel Elliott, but I strongly advise finding some other option. I traded Ezekiel Elliott and a 2024 second for Dameon Pierce and a 2024 first in an SFTEP league before week one and things have only gotten worse for Zeke since then. The offensive line is banged up. Dak Prescott is out for half the season. Dalton Shultz and Michael Gallup are hurt. Tony Pollard has seen nine targets, to Zeke’s four. Not to mention Zeke has negative seven receiving yards on the year. Pair all of that with the lowest Over/Under on the week at 39 points, which means Vegas believes there won’t be many points going around either. I’m looking for another running back to start this week like a Dameon Pierce or Jeff Wilson over Zeke.
Wide Receiver
Start: Ashton Dulin, Indianapolis vs Kansas City
I’m chasing targets with this pick. With star wide receiver Michael Pittman out last week, the Colts were embarrassingly shut out against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The bright side? None. The bright side for fantasy? Potentially a number two wide receiver has emerged in that offense that seems to make a habit of playing catch up. Dulin received seven targets and caught five of them for 79 yards. No receiver other than Pittman has more than five total targets on the year. The Over/Under is set at 50-points and I expect the Colts to be playing catch up in a big way this week, meaning Dulin could lead the team in targets again if Pittman is out. If Pittman is healthy, the fantasy world can find out if Dulin can truly emerge as a second receiver option in that offense or if he’s just a flash in the pan to be forgotten with the Zach Pascal’s of the world.
Sit: Allen Lazard, Green Bay at Tampa Bay
In Lazard’s first game of the season as Rodger’s number one receiver, he received…three targets. Someone has to catch balls at wide receiver from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers for them to win, right? Wrong. The Packers get by doing things differently and they have for multiple years in Rodgers’ career. The Saints took several deep shots against the Bucs last week and the defense covered them really well. Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave are much better weapons than Allen Lazard so I’m fading Lazard this week. The Bucs don’t have Mike Evans for this game and I believe it’s likely the Packers can get out to a small lead despite being 1.5-point dogs on the road. However, the 41.5-point Over/Under means Vegas agrees this will be a dog fight and I believe Rodgers will continue to lean on his best offensive weapons, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, in this low-scoring battle. I’d be starting Ashton Dulin over Lazard this week.
Tight End
Start: Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota vs Detroit
If you’re in a tough spot at tight end after losing Dalton Schultz and are left looking for some help, now might be a good time to reach out about Irv Smith. We’ve seen Gerald Everett take a step this year and I believe Irv Smith will be in that category next. Smith only had 36 yards, but he had five catches, and the only thing you need to be a top-10 tight end on the week is a touchdown. Potentially unnoticed is the fact that Smith had ten targets as the Vikings played catch-up against the Eagles. He was used not only in the red zone and as a check-down option, but also on deeper routes. With an opening as the number two passing option on the Vikings with Adam Theilen slowly fading and the only other competition being K.J. Osborn and Jalen Reagor, Smith can easily find himself in the “weekly start” category if he strings together a few more high target weeks. I expect Kirk Cousins to play better now that it’s not a primetime game and with a 50-point Over/Under, there should be plenty of opportunities for Vikings pass catchers as Jefferson draws most of the attention.
Sit: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit vs Minnesota
On the other side of this matchup, I’m fading the man once lauded as the “next big thing” at the tight end position. He’s received 14 targets over the first two games, but he just got added to the injury list late on Wednesday and despite the Lions scoring a total of 71 points over that span, Hockenson has no touchdowns and only seven catches for 64 yards. Hockenson is frequently banged up and it affects his ability to be a threat on the field. He’s also been replaced in the short game and in the red zone by Amon-Ra St. Brown so his weekly upside is also slowly fading away. I’d much rather start Irv Smith over him this week, as well as Evan Engram in his ongoing resurgence in Jacksonville.
Bonus
Start: All Jets weapons, New York Jets vs Cincinnati
The Jets have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL right now and I believe that sets the stage for the Bengals to bounce back in week three. With the Bengals offense gaining yards in chunks, I believe the Jets will need to play with a faster pace, which they’ve shown the ability to do as Joe “Elite” Flacco has run the second most offensive plays in the league this year. So why start all of the Jets? Garrett Wilson is a stud in the making and will only continue to rise. Elijah Moore is still running the most routes on the team and with defenses needing to focus on other weapons, should be able to take advantage of matchups more easily. Breece Hall started to make some plays last week that made me realize why he was the number one running back taken in the draft. He will continue to get more work and make more explosive plays as the game slows down for him. Michael Carter may lose work to Hall, but in a game where the Jets should be trailing, I expect Carter to see many targets in the passing game giving him a nice floor this week in your flex. Of course, if I’m recommending all of the Jets’ main weapons, I have to recommend Joe Flacco. He’s surprised me so far with his play. He’s not the most accurate, but when he misses his throws, he’s not making them catchable passes for the other team and that’s keeping the Jets on the field. Go Jets!
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