We’re in the thick of the playoffs now, and for anyone fretting over decisions this week, look no further. I’ve got you covered with the week 16 edition of Dynasty Start/Sits! For most leagues, it’s semi-finals week. It’s what we’ve worked all year for. Congratulations, and I hope I helped you somehow this year. Let’s get to it!
Starts – Quarterbacks
Nick Mullens (QB – MIN) vs. Detroit Lions
If you need a cheap floor option this week, Nick Mullens is a pretty safe bet. Even while throwing two interceptions last week, Mullens still finished as the QB11. Detroit allows the fourth-most points to QBs this year and the fifth-fewest to RBs. There likely won’t be a shortage of volume this week from Mullens, but I would still temper expectations due to his profile. He projects as a mid/high-end QB2 this week.
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Don’t expect Mayfield to repeat his four TD performance from last week. However, Jacksonville ranks third in most pass yards allowed per game over their previous three games. They also allow the third-most points to QBs this year. Mayfield provides teams with a high floor and top-ten upside this week.
Joe Flacco (QB – CLE) @ Houston Texans
Joe Flacco. The man, the myth, the Legend. Flacco hasn’t thrown less than 44 attempts since taking over, and his lowest finish is QB13 in that time. He’s a bargain bin acquisition with a real chance to help fantasy managers get to the next round. He should provide a top 15 floor.
Sits – Quarterbacks
Taylor Heinicke (QB – ATL) vs. Indianapolis Colts
He sounds like a nice upgrade for the Atlanta offense, but This Falcons offense isn’t any more explosive with Heinicke under center. Indianapolis is a neutral matchup for QBs this season. However, don’t make the mistake of trusting Arthur Smith to come through for your fantasy playoffs. The risk doesn’t outweigh the reward. Mid QB2 is likely the best-case scenario for Heinicke this week.
Sam Howell (QB – WSH) @ New York Jets
Howell is a significant boom/bust option this week. Although he’s been a pleasant fantasy surprise, he was benched last week. Washington’s patience is running thin, and the Jets allow the fewest fantasy points to QBs this year. He could find himself getting benched again this weekend. If you’re in a desperate underdog situation, I don’t mind him. Otherwise, I’d find a safer option.
Aidan O’Connell (QB – LV) @ Kansas City Chiefs
No, the Raiders are not back. The offense still has a lot of work to do. In eight games, O’Connell has thrown seven interceptions. Before his four-TD performance last week, he hadn’t thrown more than one TD in a game this year. Last week was a wild outlier week. He won’t be winning anybody a matchup this week.
Starts – Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – NE) @ Denver Broncos
As of early Thursday, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) still hasn’t practiced for the Patriots. In his absence, Elliott has been seeing a bonafide bell-cow workload. Denver allows the second most fantasy points to RBs this season, so Elliott has a legitimate chance to win you your matchup this week.
James Conner (RB – ARZ) @ Chicago Bears
Conner is coming off back-to-back top 12 RB performances and has seen 17+ touches and averages over 5 YPC. Chicago has been a plus matchup for RBs this year, so Conner should provide a solid floor for fantasy managers this week.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. Green Bay Packers
I know it doesn’t feel good to start Hubbard. However, in his previous four matchups, he’s finished as a top 24 RB and top 12 in two of those weeks. Miles Sanders (RB – CAR) has been effectively phased out of the backfield, and Hubbard has paved his way to fantasy relevance. Green Bay allows the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs this year, so Hubbard is a high-ceiling and high-floor play this week.
Sits – Running Backs
Ty Chandler (RB – MIN) vs. Detroit Lions
Ty Chandler provided fantasy managers with some much-needed help last week. However, I highly doubt the Vikings can run the ball in the same capacity against the Lions. They allow the fifth-fewest points to RBs this year, so while the usage may still be there for Chandler, the efficiency and TDs may not be.
Devin Singletary (RB – HOU) vs. Cleveland Browns
Dynasty managers found a diamond in the rough in Singletary this season. He’s done a solid job getting you where you want to be, but this is one week he can sit out. The Browns have been more fluid in allowing points to RBs in recent weeks but without the threat of a passing attack from the Texans, I’m hard-pressed to believe Singletary provides the upside necessary to make him worth the risk.
Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) @ San Francisco 49ers
Edwards will presumably resume his role as the lead back in Baltimore this week. However, he’s mostly a goal-line threat. He has only earned eight targets all season, and the 49ers only allow 3.7 rushing yards per attempt. Edwards is probably a TD-dependent play this week.
Starts – Wide Receivers
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN) vs. Detroit Lions
I know Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) is back and will get his share, but this is also a good thing for Addison. He finished WR33 or worse in his previous five matchups with Jefferson on IR. In Jefferson’s return, he finished as the WR1 overall. We shouldn’t expect that again, but Addison should see softer coverage that he can exploit as the second or third option in the offense.
Brandin Cooks (WR – DAL) @ Miami Dolphins
Cooks is another boom/bust option for those in desperation mode. Miami has a high-powered offense that can score at will, as does Dallas. Miami has been a neutral matchup for WRs this season, but Jalen Ramsey (CB – MIA) should be the primary matchup for CeeDee Lamb(WR – DAL). If nothing, it should force a few more targets Cooks’ way.
Gabe Davis (WR – BUF) @ Los Angeles Chargers
I know Davis has been running wind sprints for the last two weeks. However, the Chargers allow the third most fantasy points to WRs this year. If you’re looking for upside, look no further. Davis has finished in the top ten WRs three times a season. If there was ever a matchup for him to do it again, this is it.
Sits – Wide Receivers
Terry Mclaurin (WR – WSH) @ New York Jets
McLaurin has finished outside the top 40 wide receivers more times than he’s finished inside the top 20. He’s facing a Jets defense that allows the fewest points to our receivers a week after the benching of Sam Howell (QB – WSH). The upside just isn’t there this week. If you’re looking for someone to get you into the next round of the playoffs, McLaurin isn’t the move this week.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) vs. Cleveland Browns
Collins has been a limited participant in practice all week. Cleveland allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs this season. With Case Keenum (QB – HOU) behind center, I fear for the Houston passing attack. I’m unsure if he should be flat-out benched, but I’m willing to bet he doesn’t meet his projections this week.
Jayden Reed (WR – GB) @ Carolina Panthers
Because of the type of player that Reed is, it’s entirely plausible that he exceeds my expectations this week. However, he has a tough matchup with Carolina. They allow the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The last time he faced the defense this good against wide receivers was week 13 against Kansas City, when he finished with only 3.6 fantasy points. He has since upped his usage, but I’m still taking the under on this one.
Starts – Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) @ Los Angeles Chargers
We’re going to have some faith in the NFL to see the talent and know to use it. Although Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) did get paid this off-season and he’s finally returned to the lineup, I have to assume that Buffalo (like myself) was left rather unimpressed by his performances. Kincaid isn’t carrying any injury destinations heading into the game, so I’m intrigued to see the snap shares. The Chargers allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the position, and as I said, Kincaid has so much talent, I’d find it hard to believe Buffalo won’t get him the ball.
Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL) @ San Francisco 49ers
This one isn’t the greatest matchup for TEs in the world, but Likely has earned 6+ targets in his last three games and has finished as a top five TE in back-to-back weeks. I’m not sure whether Baltimore is conscientiously game-planning for him or if it’s just his athleticism allowing him to tear defenses apart, but what I do know is Likely makes plays. He’s probably not my first choice of TEs, but if you require a spot start, I can’t think of many I’d rather have.
Sits – Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI) vs. New York Giants
If you’re looking for a TE currently on a streak of seven games without finishing in the top 12 going up against a defense, allowing the tenth-fewest points to TEs this season, then you’ve found your guy.
Gerald Everett (TE – LAC) vs. Buffalo Bills
My Magic Eight Ball is telling me the outlook for Everett isn’t too great this week. Buffalo has been an unfavorable matchup for TEs this year and the Chargers offense has been atrocious lately. Everett hasn’t finished as a top 15 TE since week 13. He’s better left on the bench this week.
I hope you all benefitted from this article, and I thank you for reading it. I find true enjoyment in sharing my experience and helping others. So, I’m always more than willing to answer any fantasy football questions via Twitter/X @FF_Reez. Thanks for reading! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
